WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Confirming a trend seen in other recent polls, Wednesday's Washington Post-ABC News Florida Poll now shows President Donald Trump is beating Democrat Joe Biden among "Likely Voters" in the critical swing state by 4 points, 51% to 47%. Its the first major, reputable 2020 poll to show Trump winning in Florida.
Trump, the poll shows, has an especially strong following among men and white voters, including a 30% lead among white voters without college degrees – a group many analysts say will play a major roll nationally in determing the next president.The Washington Post-ABC News Florida Poll indicates this demographic represents the president’s biggest strength.
Joe Biden’s biggest strength, meanwhile, is among Black voters and women, although his lead among women is not as large as Trump’s advantage with men. Biden has a 75% lead among Black "Registered Voters."
In Florida, the Washington Post/ABC News Poll also found that 54% of "Registered Voters" approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 45% approve of his handling of the CoronaVirus.
The contest in Florida is critical because it’s the richest of the "battleground" states in terms of Electoral Votes, providing 29 of the 270 Electoral Votes needed to win the presidency.
The Washington Post/ABC Poll — a highly rated, quality survey — and other recent polls seem to confirm President Trump's latest momentum.
The FiveThirtyEight average of multiple Florida polls — including the Washington Post/ABC survey — has shown Trump gaining and Biden declining since mid-August, with Biden currently holding on to a slight 48.1% to 46.3% lead, a difference of 1.8 points and well within evey poll's margin of error. It’s the closest the polling average has been all year.
Pollster ratings from FiveThirtyEight give the Washington Post-ABC News polls an A+ for their data gathering and accuracy.
Among the broadest sample group of "Registered Voters" in Florida – "Registered Voters" represent the first subset of the nation's Voting Age Population from which "Likely Voters" can self-describe – the Washington Post/ABC poll finds Biden holding a slight 1% lead over Trump, 48% to 47%, also a statistical tie.In the final stages of a campaign, major pollsters typically refine their samples and emphasize the results for "Likely Voters" as Americans who are most likely to actually vote.
In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in Florida 49% to 47.8%.
The Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted September 15th-20th with calls to landlines and cellphones, and surveyed 765 Registered Voters, including 613 Likely Voters. The Washington Post/ABC Poll’s margin of error is +/- 5%.
