3 Weeks to Election: Experts Predict Big Republican Gains

What these scholars are arguing is that the fundamentals of this election basically favor the Republican Party tremendouslysaid  Appalachian State University political science professor Philip J. Ardoin co-editor of PS: Political Science & Politics. We saw that big Republican success in 2010 those Democrats who got into office in 2008 on the support of Obamas coattails well all those senators right on Obamas coattails will now be facing election without him this November.

The goal with the forecast models in these surveys Ardoin said aimed to focus on fundamentals beyond the noise of day-to-day polling. If history is any guide Democrats dont have a great chance of gaining many seats in the House writes the University of Buffalos James E. Campbell in the introduction. Thats because since the Civil War the party of the sitting President of the United States has picked up House seats only three times during midterm elections and never have they gained more than 10 seats. Similarly historically theres plenty of reason to expect that Republicans will pick up seats in the Senate as well. Since electing senators through popular vote began in 1912 the party out of power has picked up a net seat of six seats or even more in 12 out of the 25 midterm elections writes Campbell. History may suggest that whoever controls the White House is more likely to lose seats in mid-terms but how many seats varies according to Emory Universitys Alan I. Abramowitz. A surprisingly big factor is actually how many seats the party in power is defending. In the House that means fairly limited numbers given that Democrats are defending only 201 seats and unlike in 2010 a small chunk of the seats House Democrats control lean Republican which means pickup opportunities in the House are limited. The important takeaway from that is House Republicans arent likely to gain a huge amount of seats in 2014 and thus will still need Democratic help to pass legislation on issues that the party is divided on. Meanwhile in the Senate Democrats could lose control of the chamber but Abramowitz writes its not because of Obamacare or public dissatisfaction with the party or even lackluster aspects of the economy. Instead a big reason is simply that Democrats were so successful at winning Senate seats in 2008 including ones that usually are controlled by Republicans. But Abramowitz pours cold water on anyone getting too excited about a Republican wave: a 114th Congress with a GOP majority in the Senate would be a small majority. And a slim majority is likely to help reinforce the chances hyper-partisan conflict that have characterized the chamber.