50 Democratic Seats Set to Fall Tuesday in Midterm Blowout

Republicans headed for blowout win House control By Shane DAprile We didnt even poll in about 15 districts that are already too far gone for Democrats" said Mark Penn whose firm conducted the poll.  The Hills 2010 Midterm Election poll surveying nearly 17000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks points to a massive Republican wave that barring an extraordinary turnaround will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obamas party.  Data suggests GOP pickups could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).    Of the 42 districts polled for The Hill all but two of which are currently Democratic 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven and four were tied. In addition there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they werent polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play. So that along with our entire series of polls points to something in the range of a 50-seat gain for Republicans" said Penn of Penn Schoen Berland. Republican voters are also more likely to have made up their minds sccording to the data. The Hills data confirm other public polling and expert predictions some of which put the historic wave even higher than the 52 seats Democrats lost in 1994 and the 71 they lost in 1938. Pollster Stuart Rothenberg wrote Tuesday that Democrats face the potential of a political bloodbath the size of which we havent seen since the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt." Others more cautious The underlying demographics so strongly favor Republicans that its hard to see them not taking the majority" said American Enterprise Institutes John Fortier. But he says The Hills data reveal significant disillusionment" with both parties. Fortier predicts a GOP gain somewhere in the 45- to 50-seat range but says a gain of more than 50 would surprise him. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato predicted before Labor Day the House would flip this cycle. He noted the patterns that laid the groundwork for a return to a Republican majority were already hardening by the end of the summer. You cant change the fundamentals" Sabato said noting the high unemployment rate and low approval ratings for the president and Democrats in Congress. At this point I just dont see any way Democrats can cobble together enough districts to hold the House" Sabato said. He expects a net gain for Republicans that will exceed 50 seats.

One of the most striking findings from The Hills polling is that voter opinions have remained rock-solid over four weeks particularly among independents.

In the overwhelming majority of districts independent voters are breaking for Republican challengers while expressing widespread disapproval of Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress. Obamas overall approval rating across the four weeks never reached 50 percent among likely voters hovering between 41 and 47. Among independent voters Obamas approval was never above 41. The highest approval rating for Congress across the four weeks was a mere 25. Democratic Republican and independent voters all suggest the 2010 midterms are a referendum on the president with at least 68 percent of likely voters over the past four weeks saying their feelings about Obama are either very or somewhat important in their vote next week. Most voters minds already made up 77 of likely voters across the final 10 districts of Week Four say they are unlikely to switch their vote before Election Day. Another 22 percent of likely voters remain undecided but those voters are much more likely to be Democrats or independents than Republicans. While those numbers suggest that Democrats who trail by smaller margins have room to grow before Nov. 2 they also bolster the picture of a Republican electorate that is both decisive and more energized. If anything voter sentiment turned even more anti-establishment as the four weeks of polling progressed. The deficits facing some longtime Democratic incumbents who have spent most of their careers relatively safe from electoral peril are striking a reflection of just how deeply the anti-incumbent sentiment runs this election year. Longtime Reps. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and John Spratt (D-S.C.) are all down by double digits and each is polling at 40 percent or below. The three have held their congressional seats for 14 20 and 28 years respectively. 43 of likely voters across the final 10 districts said their members years in Congress are a reason to vote against that member this fall.

Among independents 46 are holding incumbency against their member of Congress while an overwhelming number of Republicans are: 65 to 17. Only Democrats view incumbency as a net plus 67 to 16.

Despite the environment several longtime Democrats show signs of strength. The lone Democrat who can truly breathe easy is Rep. Leonard Boswell (Iowa) who leads his Republican challenger Brad Zaun by 12 points 49 percent to 37. Boswell leads by 17 points with independents and is pulling 10 percent of Republicans according to The Hills poll. The poll found 52 percent of voters said Boswells years in Congress were a reason to cast a vote for the Democrat. Voters want to send a message to President Obama and thats what they plan on doing" said Penn.