By Susan Page - USA TODAY
WASHINGTON Is American politics about to make another U-turn? With six months to go there are road signs to watch for that will indicate which side is right. Eighteen months after Barack Obama was elected president and Democratic margins in Congress widened Republicans boast that theyre poised to regain control of the House in November and be in a position to stymie the White House agenda.
Democrats argue that they have enough time amid signs of a brightening economy to improve their prospects and minimize their losses in the midterm elections.
At stake is the future of the Bush administration tax cuts that expire this year the ambitious cap-and-trade climate bill now stalled on Capitol Hill even the efforts to reshape or repeal the health care law that was enacted just last month and is a signature of Obamas administration.
A Republican takeover presumably would dispatch the president to a land of diminished expectations where a GOP rout sent then-president Bill Clinton for a time after his disastrous 1994 midterms.
Elections are all about events; the public mood is all about circumstances and events change attitudes says Stuart Rothenberg of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.
While things seem ominous for Democrats now he says perceptions of the direction of the economy an international event or even a domestic event theres always a chance for it to change.
One of Rothenbergs key signals: If Democratic incumbents see their support stuck in the low-40 percentiles even if their challengers arent faring better than that Democrats should expect the worst from a disenchanted electorate.
Among other things Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report keeps his eye on the favorable-unfavorable ratings of the political parties.
All these things are like that robot in Lost in Space Cook says. They say Danger Will Robinson! Danger! Danger!
Watch for which candidates have money in the bank where the presidents approval rating stands and what primary results show about the parties unity and enthusiasm.
With six months to go here are six key dates that could signal whether Republicans will be celebrating or Democrats breathing sighs of relief on election night:
Party fractures
For Republicans in Kentucky and Democrats in Arkansas Senate primaries on May 18 will test how enthusiastic and how divided voters are in each party critical because midterm elections are all about which voters actually show up.
In Arkansas the Democratic incumbent is being challenged from the left. Sen. Blanche Lincoln faces Lt. Gov. Bill Halter who is backed by several labor unions and the liberal group MoveOn.org. At a televised debate in Little Rock on Friday Halter blasted her support of the Wall Street bailout and her wavering on the health care bill.
Lincoln replied that she was taking fire from both extremes because she was representing the states interests.
A poll this month by Daily Kos/Research 2000 showed Lincoln leading Halter by 12 percentage points but in general-election matchups her support never reached higher than 43 Rothenbergs red flag for incumbents.
In Kentucky the Republican establishment contender is being challenged from the right. Rand Paul son of 2008 presidential hopeful Ron Paul has support from the small-government anti-Obama Tea Party movement in a race against Secretary of State Trey Grayson. The race pits 
Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell the Senate GOP leader who urged Grayson to run against Tea Party heroine Sarah Palin who has endorsed Paul.
The contest will test the Tea Partys strength within the GOP and if Paul wins its ability to win a general election. A SurveyUSA poll this month gave Paul a 15-point lead in the primary.
The movements energy is good for Republicans unless … you have such a disproportionate turnout in Republican primaries of really angry voters that they just nominate people who are too far out to win even in a great Republican year Cook says.
Two other contests will test the direction of the Republican Party. Three-term Sen. Bob Bennett is fighting for his political survival at Utahs Republican convention on May 8. Sen. John McCain the presidential nominee in 2008 faces a conservative challenger in Arizonas primary on Aug. 24.
The check is in the mail
Congress finally managed to pass a major health care overhaul last month but Republicans warn the hard-won achievement could be Democrats undoing. A Gallup Poll this month found 49 of Americans say it was a bad thing that the bill passed; 45 call it a good thing.
On June 15 for instance $250 checks will begin going to seniors who have hit the doughnut hole in Medicares drug plans a gap in coverage when they are responsible for their full prescription costs. In all perhaps 8.6 million beneficiaries will receive the checks.
The Internal Revenue Service also has sent postcards to 4 million small businesses alerting them to a new retroactive tax credit available to those that provide health insurance for their workers. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is pushing insurance companies to immediately begin allowing parents to keep children up to age 26 on their plans a provision that begins taking effect in September.
Meanwhile Republicans continue to hammer the law as a big government takeover that will hurt the economy.
The reality is we need to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the kind of health care reform that will lower the cost of health care without growing the size of government Indiana Rep. 
Mike Pence chairman of the House Republican Conference said Tuesday.
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman who has studied changes in public attitudes toward past health care legislation after enactment says the new law isnt likely to become a big asset for Democrats this year.
Money in the bank
Money matters. But the key number in campaign-finance reports candidates must file in mid-July wont be much money theyve raised or spent. It will be cash on hand that is the funds immediately available to buy TV commercials during the campaigns final push.
The 41 Democratic incumbents seen as most vulnerable are flush with cash this month reporting an average of $1 million of money in the bank according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly. Still Republican challengers in 70 districts had at least $250000 in the bank enough to wage competitive races.
Consider two Ohio rematches between Republican challengers and the Democrats who defeated them in 2008.
Former representative Steve Chabot has more than $800000 in hand for his race against Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus who has $940000. Republican Steve Stivers has close to $800000 in the bank only slightly less than Democratic Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy.
Residents in those districts should brace for an onslaught of political ads on TV this fall.
Got a job?
No economic statistic has more political power than the unemployment rate now 9.7. Even those with jobs are nervous: In a Gallup Poll this month a record one in five working Americans say its likely theyll lose their job during the next year.
The unemployment for July is released on Aug. 6 just before the fall campaigns begin in earnest and as voter attitudes are beginning to be set.
What matters politically isnt where the jobless rate stands. What matters is whether the rate is getting better or worse.
Attitudes arent reshaped in the final weeks of an election. It takes longer for people to adjust their views about the economy than simply one or two or three months.
Contract negotiations
Six weeks before the 1994 midterms on Sep. 27 Republicans released a Contract With America detailing eight procedural reforms they promised to pass on the first day of Congress and 10 pieces of legislation they would vote on within 100 days if they won control.
Will history repeat itself?
Republicans already are working on a new version to be released in September. They plan to use town hall meetings the Internet and social media sites such as Twitter and Facebook to solicit ideas from voters before devising a plan for action if they should regain control of Congress again.
Some leaders of the Tea Party movement this month released a Contract From America. It listed 10 priorities from balancing the budget to rejecting a cap-and-trade energy plan that they want 
candidates to adopt.
California Rep. Kevin McCarthy who is leading the effort to draft what he calls a Commitment to America is also in charge of recruiting candidates for the GOP campaign committee says Republicans have the opportunity to regain the House if they make it clear what they then would do. I believe Republicans can win seats by just saying no but we have to solve problems and we have to govern if we want to hold the gavel.
Its a tough climate for Democrats Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine acknowledges.
Hows Obama doing?
Hes not on the ballot but the month before Election Day Obamas job-approval rating will help signal whats about to happen to the candidates who are.
An analysis of the last 12 midterm elections by Republican pollster Glen Bolger found results he calls staggering:
- Since 1962 when a presidents approval rating was 60 or higher in October there are four examples of that his party gained an average of one House seat.
- When it was 50 to 59 as it had been three times his party lost an average of 12 seats a modest setback.
- In the five midterms held while a presidents approval had dipped below 50 however his party suffered calamitous results losing an average of 41 seats. Thats one seat more
than Republicans need to win back the House this year.
