60 Days to Go: The Crystal Balls Labor Day Predictions

By Larry J. Sabato Will 2010 be added to the slaughter years"?  The general election is a couple months away but the odds are good that the bar lines in the graphs below will reach reasonably high after November 2.  The Crystal Balls predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one.   Weve been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a years worth of facts has accumulated. Weve sifted the polls cranked up the models and watched the candidates and campaigns closely.  But a few years bring congressional slaughters relatively speaking: 1974 1980 1982 1994 and 2006 are the most prominent. One party or the other suffers more in any given year as the pendulum of public opinion swings back and forth. All political observers have gut feelings" about an election year but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans openly or in disguise. 2010 was always going to be a Republican year in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible depending in large measure on whether or how quickly the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate. But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high income growth sluggish and public confidence quite low. The Democrats self-proclaimed Recovery Summer" has become a term of derision and to most voters fair or not it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered. Obamas job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50 in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt spending taxes health care and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure and the Democratic bases turnout will lag. Plus Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008 many of them in Republican territory so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high. Given what we can see at this moment Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats net. This is a net" number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware Hawaii and Louisiana. This estimate which may be raised or lowered by Election Day is based on a careful district-by-district analysis plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obamas Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains if the election were being held today.

In the Senate we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of 7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (10) but are more likely to end up with 8 (or maybe 9 at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut Ben Nelson of Nebraska and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946 1948 1952 1954 1994 and 2006). Every time the Senate flipped too even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics but they do suggest an electoral tendency. The seat switches are probably coming in:

1. Arkansas
2. Colorado
3. Delaware (but only if the eventual GOP nominee is Rep. Mike Castle)
4. Indiana
5. North Dakota and
6. Pennsylvania.

We expect Republicans to pick off at least a couple of these states:

1. California
2. Illinois
3. Nevada
4. Washington and
5. Wisconsin.

While it is possible that Republicans will lose one or two of their own open seats the only 50-50 chance of that right now is in Florida and it might not happen even there. There can also be unanticipated shockers if a GOP wave develops. While we rate Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the early favorite to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrds seat his Republican opponent John Raese is a self-funder in a strongly anti-Obama state. The inescapable conclusion is that the Senate is on the bubble with only a slight lean at Labor Day toward Democratic retention.

The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net 6 governorships. We now believe they will win 8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country. Republicans are likely or even certain to gain the governorships in:

1. Iowa
2. Kansas
3. Michigan
4. Oklahoma
5. Pennsylvania
6. Tennessee
7. Wisconsin and
8. Wyoming.

We believe the GOP candidates also have an edge in Illinois and Oregonboth of these quite surprising. Democrats will also pick up a few statehouses to cut their losses: Hawaii is near-certain with fair to good shots in Connecticut Minnesota and Rhode Island (though we currently retain the last two as toss-ups). The contests listed only as leaning" one way or the other are the most vulnerable to shift in the next two months. Unless an unexpected extraordinary number of these changes are in favor of the Democrats it is hard to see how Republicans can fail to do very well. We still have 6 toss-ups for Senate (California Florida Illinois Nevada Washington and Wisconsinseats held by the Democrats in all but Florida ). The 9 toss-ups for Governor are in California Florida Georgia Maine Maryland Minnesota Ohio Rhode Island and Vermontsix currently held by GOP chief executives and three by Democrats. In the House the Crystal Ball counts 29 toss-ups 28 seats held in this Congress by Democrats and just one by Republicans. As always the Crystal Ball will make a guess in every contest before Election Day. In some years our overall seat changes in each category have been exactly on the button and in 2008 we were a single electoral vote off the Obama-McCain finish of 365-173. But we fully admit here and now that as always well get some of them wrong. We truly believe our website motto: He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass." Thats part of the fun of politics. In 2006 and 2008 the Crystal Ball was full of good news for Democrats while this one may cause a run on Prozac among our Democratic readers. Is there any way back for the Democrats in the eight remaining weeks? We know what we dont know: Something big and unexpected can always drop from the skies. Naturally it can work the other way toosay a substantial increase in unemployment or negative GDP growth just before Election Day. If there isnt a dramatic development that has overarching political implications then Democrats will have to depend on their financial edge tested candidates and leaders finding ways to motivate the troops to a far greater extent than we see today (or witnessed in the 2009 off-year elections). Any shift will quickly show up in the generic ballot match-up among likely voters. Gallups generic ballot question reads:

If the elections for Congress were being held today which partys candidate would you vote for in your congressional district the Democratic Partys candidate or the Republican Partys candidate?"

In a midterm election only about 40 of the adults will come to the polls (or vote early) compared to 63 in the presidential contest of 2008. While a recent Gallup poll had the GOP leading the generic ballot by a massive 10 percent on average Republicans are ahead by about 5 percentage pointsstill quite high by historic standards. Overall though a strong bet is that 2010 will generate a substantial pendulum swing from the Democrats to the Republicans. It is not that Republicans are popular most polls show the party even less liked than the Democrats. Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party. Nevertheless in the time-honored American way voters will be inclined to punish the party in-power by checking and balancing it with more members from the opposition party. Each week we will update our ratings in each category all the way to election eve November 1st. There is a lot of good politics to come in September and October so stay tuned. Larry J. Sabato is Director of the U.Va. Center for Politics.  Sabatos Crystal Ball website features detailed and frequently updated analysis for elections across the country. The Crystal Ball keeps tabs on every Senate and gubernatorial race as well as the tightest campaigns for the House.