By Karl Rove
The primary election results show rising intensity among Republican voters.
The temptation for politicians and political analysts is to draw broad sweeping conclusions from election results. But most election outcomes defy being reduced to a single cause.
Campaigns are a complicated mix of issues personalities and impressions. Voters settle on a candidate after using an algorithm that varies from person-to-person contest-to-contest and year-to-year.
Tuesdays election results reflect an anti-Washington anti-Obama anti-establishment feeling among voters but they also reflect the candidates individual winning messages.
Take Kentuckys GOP primary where ophthalmologist and tea party activist Rand Paul won the Republican nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning. Dr. Pauls victory was a rejection of the Republican establishment shrieked observers. He defeated Secretary of State Trey Grayson who was supported by the states senior senator Mitch McConnell.
But Dr. Paul won with support from party regulars Cathy Bailey (finance chairman for both George W. Bush and Mr. McConnell) Kentucky State Senate President David Williams and Mr. Bunning himself.
Dr. Pauls emphasis on fiscal issues trumped Mr. Graysons emphasis on biography. The sluggish economy combined with Mr. Obamas budget-busting agenda sparked a populist reaction that Dr. Paul tapped with attacks on deficits spending and special interests.
He has a challenge: Being magnanimous often comes hard to first-time candidates.
But his big 24-point victory marginlike those of the GOPs Senate standard bearers in Pennsylvania and Arkansaswill make it easier to unite the party.
Pennsylvanias Democratic primary did see a longtime incumbent lose. But here incumbency was less important than lack of principle. The defeat of Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter shows opportunistic politicians are rarely
trusted or accepted. Mr. Obamas endorsement in ads and appearances didnt save Sen. Specter.
The GOP would be better off if Mr. Specter had won. The weaknesses that became apparent in the primary would have doomed him in the fall. The race now pitting former GOP Congressman Pat Toomey against Congressman Joe Sestak will be among the countrys hardest fought races.
Mr. Obamas endorsement similarly failed to carry Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln to a decisive victory. She now faces the states liberal lieutenant governor Bill Halter in a June 8 runoff. Her predicament shows Democrats especially in border and Southern states are badly split over the Obama agenda. If Mr. Obamas vaunted political operations couldnt deliver for Mr. Specter and Mrs. Lincoln what does it say about the fall?
Democrats are increasingly likely to distance themselves from Mr. Obama either ignoring him or running against him. Which brings us to Pennsylvanias 12th District. Democrats are right to crow about keeping that seat left vacant by the death of Jack Murtha.
Murthas longtime aide Mark Critz won with a message that he was pro-life pro-gun and anti-ObamaCare while benefiting from a sympathy vote for Murthas legacy.
In a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 137000 voters 62 to 29 Mr. Critz also benefited from Gov. Ed Rendells clever decision to schedule the special election on the same day as party primaries.
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs says This is the type of race the GOP has to win. He is right but just how many other Democrats will be running this year as pro-life pro-gun anti-ObamaCare and against cap and trade?
The Democratic theory that voter anger would fade or burn out once health care was passed was wrong-headed and was undermined Tuesday. That anger remains and likely will persist through the November elections.
Republican intensity also continues: The Democratic turnout in Kentucky declined 8 from the last midterm while GOP turnout rose 27. In Arkansas the hot Democratic Senate primary produced a 15 increase in turnout from four years agobut the GOP turnout more than doubled up 122.
Even though Pennsylvania Republicans didnt have serious statewide primary fights while the Democrats battled over both Senate and gubernatorial nominations Republican turnout was up 46 over the last midterm while Democratic turnout rose 41.
Conventional wisdom holds that incumbents are in trouble this year. Theres some truth to that. But the vast majority of those incumbents are likely to be Democrats. And the only bright moment for Democrats Tuesday came from a candidate who explicitly disavowed Mr. Obamas most significant policy victory and expressed views on social issues that are detested by most national Democrats.
The wave that started last year is continuing to gain velocity size and force. This weeks elections confirmed what the evidence has shown since last summer: Mr. Obamas agenda is a political killer and his endorsement is of little help.
If there is a big takeaway from what happened on Tuesday that is it.
Mr. Rove is the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.
