2014 Election now some 515 days away.
By David Hawkings
The attention of Congress at the moment is all about training
its investigative powers on the Obama Administration controversies.
And this week after going dark for a long Memorial Day weekend of cookouts & commencements the Capitol starts the second half of the
scheduled legislative year. This is a marker that gives new meaning to the idea that time flies when
not much of anything is going on.
This is the 16th week of 2013 when at least one chamber of Congress has been in session. After recess that many weeks of legislating remain before Veterans Day in November. The Senate has no announced plans to be around beyond then although if past practice is a guide it will keep churning away as long as the House which has penciled in the second Friday in December as the years last getaway day.
(Its been a decade since either chamber closed up shop before Thanksgiving in an off-Election year.)
Still the notion that
the first session of the 113th Congress is at halftime makes intuitive sense to many corporate lobbyists K Street rainmakers think tank analysts nonprofit advocates and political-intelligence purveyors
all of whom have to pace themselves to stay on top of things until the last roll is called.
The first year of a Presidents 2nd Term traditionally involves the president spending down his political capital before its expiration date as lawmakers are as far away from facing voters as theyll ever be. No other year in the four-year cycle comes close.
But theres already the palpable sense of profoundly lower-than-normal expectations for Congress this year. Evidence to support that view comes from a survey of Washington insiders by CQ Roll Calls marketing team which got 1715 responses from a mix of customers and prospects from companies trade associations and lobbying shops.
The headline of the survey: The immigration bill was the only item on the potential legislative agenda that more than 1 in 3 predicted would get done in the next seven months.
The depth of the skepticism is underscored by the fact that the online questionnaire was filled out the week ending May 10 before the IRS scrutiny of
conservative groups the warrantless seizing of journalists phone records and more shape-shifting about the Libyan consulate attack combined to suggest a whole new option for Republicans. They will now make the rest of the year much more about investigation than legislation.
Confidence that an immigration package will become law is the exception: 71 said they expected that outcome to be successful.
Such a solid majority isnt that surprising: Revamping immigration rules has been seen as No. 1 on the domestic policy to-do list since the election when Republicans abysmal showing among Latino voters provided an obvious incentive for the party to compromise on the issue.
Whats noticeable is that nothing else even comes close. Only 35 of respondents expect that defense policy will be tackled by the divided Congress for example even though lawmakers have finished an annual defense authorization
bill without fail for 51 consecutive years.
With remarkable uniformity the insiders raised a collective eyebrow at the notion that health care tax or gun control legislation would get done this year. In each case just 32 said it was their expectation the issue would get addressed.
Pessimism on other fronts was starker still. Only 22 forecast a compromise for limiting the cybersecurity vulnerabilities of both the government and businesses that maintain economically critical systems.
Only 21 checked the phrase appropriations process."
Since theres no real move afoot to revamp how Congress apportions discretionary spending the sentiment probably underscores one of the most widespread expectations at the Capitol: This years process will be as ad hoc as any in the past decade with most of the preliminary decisions ignored or delayed by continuing resolutions this fall then cobbled together in a year-end omnibus.
The appropriations question highlighted the disconnect between what the insiders expect and what theyd like to see happen. Three in eight volunteered that restoring regular order to the budget system would benefit their organizations.
Asked what issues that impact your organization do you want Congress to address in 2013?" only three topics finished higher.
- No. 1 was health care at 49
- Taxes was second at 42 and
- Immigration followed at 39
The surveys third question sought to gauge how the insiders thought their own lives might change because of congressional action.
The respondents seemed to ignore the old saw about death and taxes being the only certainties in life because only 3 in 5 picked health care and taxes as issues important to them personally that Congress ought to tackle this year. Third
was gun control at 43.
None of the others were even close.
David Hawkings has been covering Washington for 25 years. He was managing editor of Congressional Quarterly Weekly edited CQs Politics in America and most recently authored the CQ Roll Call Daily Briefing.