After every other conservative alternative to Mitt Romney crashed and burned (libertarian Ron Paul is in a category of his own) from the rubble emerges Rick Santorum. But he isnt just the last man standing. He is the first challenger to be plausibly presidential: knowledgeable articulate experienced of stable character and authentic ideology.
Hed been ignored largely because he appeared unelectable out of office for five years having lost his Senate seat in Pennsylvania by a staggering 17 points in 2006.
However with his virtual tie for first in Iowa he sheds the loser label and seizes the momentum meaning millions of dollars worth of free media to make up for his lack of money. Hes got the stage to make his case plus the luck of a scheduling quirk: If he can make it through the next three harrowing primaries the (relative) February lull would allow him to build a national campaign structure before Super Tuesday on March 6.
Santorums electoral advantage is sociological: His common-man working-class sensibility would be highly appealing to battleground-state Reagan Democrats. His fundamental problem is ideological: Hes a deeply committed social conservative in a year when the country is obsessed with the economy and when conservatism is obsessed with limited government. Republicans after all swept the 2010 election on economic concerns and opposition to big government. The Tea Party revolution was not about gay marriage. Which is why so much Tea Party fervor attaches to Paul.
Santorum did win the Tea Party vote in Iowa. But because he was such a long shot his record did not receive much scrutiny. It will now. He is no austere limited-government constitutionalist. He participated in George W. Bushs compassionate conservatism which largely made peace with big government. Santorum for example defends earmarks and supported No Child Left Behind and the Medicare prescription drug benefit. Its a perfectly defensible philosophy but now hell be called upon to actually defend it.
Moreover Iowa is anomalous. Its not just that the Republican electorate is disproportionately evangelical and thus highly receptive to Santorums social conservatism (as to Mike Huckabees in 2008). Its that Iowas economy is unusually healthy with only 5.7 percent unemployment high agricultural prices and strong real estate values. Although the economy did rate as a major issue in the entrance poll in such relative prosperity it registers more as a concern for the nation than as a visceral personal issue diminishing the impact of Romneys calling card economic competence.
For his part Romney remains preternaturally inert. His numbers his demeanor his campaign are flat-line steady: no highs no lows no euphoria no panic.
With one minor exception. Romney wasnt expected to do very well in Iowa. A top-three finish would have been good; a first or second a surprising success. But feeling his Iowa prospects rise he let fly a last-minute high. (Two hairs were seen dangling over his forehead.) He began touting his chance of winning thus gratuitously raising expectations.
That turned a hairline victory into something of a setback accentuating his inability to break out of his flat-line25 or so percent support. How flat? His final 2012 Iowa vote count deviated from his 2008 total of 30021 by six votes. (Not 6 percent. A party of six.)
For a front-runner who cant seem to expand his base hes been fortunate that the opposition has been so split. But the luck stops here. Michele Bachmann is gone. Rick Perry will skip New Hampshire then dead-man-walk through South Carolina. And then there is Newt.
Gingrich is staying in. This should be good news for Romney. Its not. In his Iowa non-concession speech Gingrich was seething. He could not conceal his fury with Paul and Romney for burying him in negative ads. After singling out Santorum for praise Gingrich launched into them both most especially Romney.
Gingrich speaks of aligning himself with Santorum against Romney. For Newts campaign this makes absolutely no strategic sense. Except that Gingrich is after vengeance not victory. Ahab is loose in New Hampshire stalking his great white Mitt.
What a lineup. Santorum and Gingrich go after Romney whose unspoken ally is Paul who needs to fight off Santorum in order to emerge as both No. 1 challenger and Republican kingmaker leader of a movement demanding respect attention and concessions. And Jon Huntsman goes after everybody.
Is this any way to pick a president? Absolutely. It works. It winnows. And it has produced after just one contest an admirably worthy conservative alternative to Romney.
After every other conservative alternative to Mitt Romney crashed and burned (libertarian Ron Paul is in a category of his own) from the rubble emerges Rick Santorum. But he isnt just the last man standing. He is the first challenger to be plausibly presidential: knowledgeable articulate experienced of stable character and authentic ideology.
Hed been ignored largely because he appeared unelectable out of office for five years having lost his Senate seat in Pennsylvania by a staggering 17 points in 2006.
However with his virtual tie for first in Iowa he sheds the loser label and seizes the momentum meaning millions of dollars worth of free media to make up for his lack of money. Hes got the stage to make his case plus the luck of a scheduling quirk: If he can make it through the next three harrowing primaries the (relative) February lull would allow him to build a national campaign structure before Super Tuesday on March 6.
Santorums electoral advantage is sociological: His common-man working-class sensibility would be highly appealing to battleground-state Reagan Democrats. His fundamental problem is ideological: Hes a deeply committed social conservative in a year when the country is obsessed with the economy and when conservatism is obsessed with limited government. Republicans after all swept the 2010 election on economic concerns and opposition to big government. The Tea Party revolution was not about gay marriage. Which is why so much Tea Party fervor attaches to Paul.
Santorum did win the Tea Party vote in Iowa. But because he was such a long shot his record did not receive much scrutiny. It will now. He is no austere limited-government constitutionalist. He participated in George W. Bushs compassionate conservatism which largely made peace with big government. Santorum for example defends earmarks and supported No Child Left Behind and the Medicare prescription drug benefit. Its a perfectly defensible philosophy but now hell be called upon to actually defend it.
Moreover Iowa is anomalous. Its not just that the Republican electorate is disproportionately evangelical and thus highly receptive to Santorums social conservatism (as to Mike Huckabees in 2008). Its that Iowas economy is unusually healthy with only 5.7 percent unemployment high agricultural prices and strong real estate values. Although the economy did rate as a major issue in the entrance poll in such relative prosperity it registers more as a concern for the nation than as a visceral personal issue diminishing the impact of Romneys calling card economic competence.
For his part Romney remains preternaturally inert. His numbers his demeanor his campaign are flat-line steady: no highs no lows no euphoria no panic.
With one minor exception. Romney wasnt expected to do very well in Iowa. A top-three finish would have been good; a first or second a surprising success. But feeling his Iowa prospects rise he let fly a last-minute high. (Two hairs were seen dangling over his forehead.) He began touting his chance of winning thus gratuitously raising expectations.
That turned a hairline victory into something of a setback accentuating his inability to break out of his flat-line25 or so percent support. How flat? His final 2012 Iowa vote count deviated from his 2008 total of 30021 by six votes. (Not 6 percent. A party of six.)
For a front-runner who cant seem to expand his base hes been fortunate that the opposition has been so split. But the luck stops here. Michele Bachmann is gone. Rick Perry will skip New Hampshire then dead-man-walk through South Carolina. And then there is Newt.
Gingrich is staying in. This should be good news for Romney. Its not. In his Iowa non-concession speech Gingrich was seething. He could not conceal his fury with Paul and Romney for burying him in negative ads. After singling out Santorum for praise Gingrich launched into them both most especially Romney.
Gingrich speaks of aligning himself with Santorum against Romney. For Newts campaign this makes absolutely no strategic sense. Except that Gingrich is after vengeance not victory. Ahab is loose in New Hampshire stalking his great white Mitt.
What a lineup. Santorum and Gingrich go after Romney whose unspoken ally is Paul who needs to fight off Santorum in order to emerge as both No. 1 challenger and Republican kingmaker leader of a movement demanding respect attention and concessions. And Jon Huntsman goes after everybody.
Is this any way to pick a president? Absolutely. It works. It winnows. And it has produced after just one contest an admirably worthy conservative alternative to Romney.
