VP columns invariably run down the pluses and minuses of each name mentioned are easy to write and people seem to like them. With each candidates stock going up or down depending on what the current buzz is there is more than enough material to keep a columnist happy. But Im not merely a columnist. Im a political analyst who writes a column.
Over the past few months Ive written a couple of columns about presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romneys potential running mates Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Start with some biography an anecdote or tidbit add a dash of analysis and a blind quote and youve got an entertaining piece.
Given that equation the prospect of an additional six or eight columns about other contenders Ohio Sen. Rob Portman Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to name just a few filled me with joy.
The political analyst in me tells me that all of the chatter about Romneys running mate is a lot of wasted useless meaningless hot air.
In all likelihood Romneys selection of a running mate will have little or no effect on the November general election.
When former Vice President Dick Cheney recently commented that its pretty rare" that an election turns on the vice presidential pick he was reflecting the views of most serious students of American politics.
There are of course exceptions including the 1960 presidential race when the selection of Lyndon Johnson probably allowed the Democratic ticket to carry Texas. But the homogenizing of American culture (via television and the Internet) and the increased polarization of the country and ideological purity of the two parties have made it less likely that a running mate can deliver" his or her state.
Of course I cant rule out the possibility that the selection of a Hispanic running mate could change the Electoral College math in 2012 or sometime in the future or that some demographic group could be swayed by a selection for vice president in such a way that it could affect which ticket wins and which loses.
But Republican nominee Sen. John McCain put a woman on his ticket in 2008 only to have female voters give Democrat Barack Obama 56 percent of their vote.
True a serious female candidate might have helped the Republican ticket perform better among women (and even among men) but the reality of presidential elections is that as the calendar moves away from the national nominating conventions and toward Election Day voters see the contest as a choice between the two parties presidential nominees not the two tickets.
The 2008 election was about McCain and Obama not Sarah Palin. Geraldine Ferraros place on the 84 Democratic ticket had no effect on the outcome. And Dan Quayle for all of the controversy about his selection didnt determine who won and who lost the 1988 election.
Its not that the nominee for vice president is irrelevant. He or she will participate in a debate and have a role in promoting Romney and the Republican Party as well as in tearing down the president and his party during the campaign. And of course the vice president will be next in line should something terrible happen to the president.
Voters apparently understand that while vice presidents have more or less influence on various decisions depending on who is in the Oval Office it is presidents who make the big decisions.
Given all of this I do not expect to be writing columns about potential Romney running mates. Im not ruling it out completely because if some particularly stupid name surfaces I dont want to tie my own hands. But you will need to look elsewhere to find rundowns about potential running mates."
And youll have no difficulty finding chatter about them because everyone and his brother will be writing about it tweeting it or talking about it on TV.
But so much of the talk about the selection of a Romney running mate will be meaningless drivel about pseudo-candidates who wont be selected that you might as well just wait until the selection to react to it.
And while the selection may well say something" about Romney and his approach to the campaign and the presidency it isnt likely to determine who wins in November.
So why will everyone spend so much time on the vice presidential choice?
The cable networks have 8784 hours to fill this leap year 4416 hours to fill from May 1 to the end of October and theyll need to fill some of those hours with chatter from people who want to hear themselves talk about running mate selections.
Viewers and readers seem to like the speculation its sort of like a game show so speculating on running mates has appeal to producers editors and yes columnists.
So go ahead and have fun if you enjoy listening to the speculation. Play the VP selection game at cocktail parties or around the kitchen table. Write your comments about the best pick for Romney or the worst at the end of articles on the Web.
Just remember the 2012 election is between President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
VP columns invariably run down the pluses and minuses of each name mentioned are easy to write and people seem to like them. With each candidates stock going up or down depending on what the current buzz is there is more than enough material to keep a columnist happy. But Im not merely a columnist. Im a political analyst who writes a column.
Over the past few months Ive written a couple of columns about presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romneys potential running mates Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Start with some biography an anecdote or tidbit add a dash of analysis and a blind quote and youve got an entertaining piece.
Given that equation the prospect of an additional six or eight columns about other contenders Ohio Sen. Rob Portman Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to name just a few filled me with joy.
The political analyst in me tells me that all of the chatter about Romneys running mate is a lot of wasted useless meaningless hot air.
In all likelihood Romneys selection of a running mate will have little or no effect on the November general election.
When former Vice President Dick Cheney recently commented that its pretty rare" that an election turns on the vice presidential pick he was reflecting the views of most serious students of American politics.
There are of course exceptions including the 1960 presidential race when the selection of Lyndon Johnson probably allowed the Democratic ticket to carry Texas. But the homogenizing of American culture (via television and the Internet) and the increased polarization of the country and ideological purity of the two parties have made it less likely that a running mate can deliver" his or her state.
Of course I cant rule out the possibility that the selection of a Hispanic running mate could change the Electoral College math in 2012 or sometime in the future or that some demographic group could be swayed by a selection for vice president in such a way that it could affect which ticket wins and which loses.
But Republican nominee Sen. John McCain put a woman on his ticket in 2008 only to have female voters give Democrat Barack Obama 56 percent of their vote.
True a serious female candidate might have helped the Republican ticket perform better among women (and even among men) but the reality of presidential elections is that as the calendar moves away from the national nominating conventions and toward Election Day voters see the contest as a choice between the two parties presidential nominees not the two tickets.
The 2008 election was about McCain and Obama not Sarah Palin. Geraldine Ferraros place on the 84 Democratic ticket had no effect on the outcome. And Dan Quayle for all of the controversy about his selection didnt determine who won and who lost the 1988 election.
Its not that the nominee for vice president is irrelevant. He or she will participate in a debate and have a role in promoting Romney and the Republican Party as well as in tearing down the president and his party during the campaign. And of course the vice president will be next in line should something terrible happen to the president.
Voters apparently understand that while vice presidents have more or less influence on various decisions depending on who is in the Oval Office it is presidents who make the big decisions.
Given all of this I do not expect to be writing columns about potential Romney running mates. Im not ruling it out completely because if some particularly stupid name surfaces I dont want to tie my own hands. But you will need to look elsewhere to find rundowns about potential running mates."
And youll have no difficulty finding chatter about them because everyone and his brother will be writing about it tweeting it or talking about it on TV.
But so much of the talk about the selection of a Romney running mate will be meaningless drivel about pseudo-candidates who wont be selected that you might as well just wait until the selection to react to it.
And while the selection may well say something" about Romney and his approach to the campaign and the presidency it isnt likely to determine who wins in November.
So why will everyone spend so much time on the vice presidential choice?
The cable networks have 8784 hours to fill this leap year 4416 hours to fill from May 1 to the end of October and theyll need to fill some of those hours with chatter from people who want to hear themselves talk about running mate selections.
Viewers and readers seem to like the speculation its sort of like a game show so speculating on running mates has appeal to producers editors and yes columnists.
So go ahead and have fun if you enjoy listening to the speculation. Play the VP selection game at cocktail parties or around the kitchen table. Write your comments about the best pick for Romney or the worst at the end of articles on the Web.
Just remember the 2012 election is between President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
