By Bobby Eberle
What a crazy night in Iowa! At some point over the last several months it seems like every single GOP presidential candidate was at the top of the Iowa polls -- oh except for Rick Santorum. But everything started to change. As Newt Gingrich slipped and Santorums ground game kicked in the former Pennsylvania senator began to rise in the polls. Ron Paul made it a three-way race for part of the evening but as more votes came in it was clear that the winner of Iowa would either be Mitt Romney or Santorum. In effect the election was a tie but in this case the tie goes to Santorum who now emerges as the conservative alternative to Romney.
The official winner of Tuesday nights Iowa caucus was Romney. He won by a staggering eight votes. Thats all that separated the top two. It was really quite incredible:
100 of precincts reporting
Total Votes and Percentage
Mitt Romney: 30015 - 24.6
Rick Santorum: 30007 - 24.5
Ron Paul: 26219 - 21.4
Newt Gingrich: 16251 - 13.3
Rick Perry: 12604 - 10.3
Michele Bachmann: 6073 - 5
Jon Huntsman: 745 - 0.6
Herman Cain: 58 - 0
Buddy Roemer: 31 - 0
No Preference: 135 - 0.1
Other: 117 - 0.1
For all intents and purposes the list could be stopped after MIchele Bachmann. Jon Huntsman finished lower but he didnt campaign in Iowa. Instead hes focusing his campaign in New Hampshire.
What does the election mean? Here are some thoughts:
For Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry its time to pack things up say their good-byes and fall in behind a remaining candidate. Their campaigns are done. Both had their time in the sun but Bachmann couldnt reignite her campaign once she lost ground when Rick Perry entered the race. Perry stumbled badly on many levels as he was made to look like just another crony politician with the gardasil issue and soft on illegal immigration. Those were the substantive issues... then there were his debates.
In any event the right thing for them to do would be to endorse the candidate they feel would carry the conservative mantle for the rest of the campaign. That candidate naturally appears to be Rick Santorum.
Gingrich will continue because he wants to show the other candidates that they cant debate. But as we saw in Iowa when the barrage of negative ads hit they take their toll.
Ron Paul will continue because thats what he does. He raises money and campaigns for president. However he will fade away until he finally drops out of the race and we will all wonder if he will endorse the eventual Republican nominee. He says hes a Republican but its just a means for him to run for president.
That leaves Romney and Santorum. Wow... what a race!
Romney showed once again that he cant move beyond his core 24. He always polls around that number and thats what he received in Iowa. But now Iowa is done. He won and he can move on to New Hampshire. He should do quite well there since the state is more favorable to both his geography and his politics. However there are a couple of candidates who can do some damage namely Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum. Huntsman has been campaigning strongly in New Hampshire and has developed a following. Santorum now has the Iowa victory to give him some momentum.
Ah... Santorum. Any follower of GOP politics should congratulate Rick Santorum on his efforts in Iowa. He did it with handshakes and events and door-to-door politics. After being an asterisk at the debates he now emerges as the conservative challenger to Romney. The problem is that New Hampshire votes on Tuesday January 10 so there is not much time for momentum. However if he does decently in New Hampshire as in a strong second or third then he can focus on the real target: South Carolina. That is next on the calendar and one in which a conservative could emerge as the victor.
Politics is a crazy business and elections are even crazier. Just when you think you know what will happen... BOOM!
