Rothenberg Political Report
Texas Insider Report: AUSTIN Texas Plenty of commentators have misunderstood the electorates anger" said media consultant Brad Todd of OnMessage Inc. which works closely with the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Theyre angry at the direction of the country and not the nature of incumbency."
Through this years primaries more than 98 of House & Senate incumbents seeking re-election won their primaries. Countless stories & hours of cable television have been filled with analysis describing this years elections as tantamount to an anti-incumbent wave.
Its clear that instead of throwing the bums out voters have let the vast majority of incumbents move on to the general election.
Still its worth noting that the number of incumbents who failed to win renomination 7 is more than in recent cycles.
But while there is widespread frustration with Washington incumbency was not the driving force in this years Congressional casualties Todd said.
Most of the anger is driven at Democrats because theyre in power" he added. Some is driven at Republicans when voters conclude that a particular candidate is too close to Democrats."
In Alaska tea party conservatives portrayed Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski as too moderate. She lost her primary to little-known attorney Joe Miller in August.
In Utah Republican Sen. Bob Bennett was denied even a spot in the primary when he failed to get enough delegates at the state convention.
Similar to Murkowskis Bennetts ouster was fueled by ideology not because he was an incumbent.
In other states incumbents fell in primaries but not necessarily because of their titles.
Sen. Arlen
rs loss to Rep. Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary was one of the most high-profile incumbent losses this year. But if Specter had not been a Republican for more than four decades in elected office and then switched parties Sestak would not have entered the race.
In Alabama Rep. Parker Griffiths loss in the Republican primary can also be blamed on his party switch. Had he sought re-election as a Democrat he likely would have won renomination.
State Sen. Mike Oliverio defeated Rep. Alan Mollohan in the Democratic primary in West Virginias 1st district while state Sen. Hansen Clarke beat Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in the Democratic primary in Michigans 13th district.
Kilpatricks ouster was not surprising considering she received 39 percent in the 2008 primary against two opponents and her son former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is in prison.
In South Carolinas 4th district GOP Rep. Bob Inglis lost the primary runoff 71 to 29 to state Rep. Trey Gowdy in June. Inglis defeat was part ideological he voted for the 2008 financial bailout & against President George W. Bushs troop surge in Iraq and part incumbent fatigue.
The idea of incumbents losing primaries is not unique to this cycle. Four House Members lost in
2008:
- Reps. Chris Cannon (R-Utah)
- David Davis (R-Tenn.)
- Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md.) and
- Albert Wynn (D-Md.).
In
2006:
- Reps. Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) and Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.) lost
- along with Sen. Joe Lieberman who lost in the Connecticut Democratic primary.
- Texas Democratic Reps. Chris Bell and Ciro Rodriguez lost in 2004 and
- Sen. Bob Smith lost the Republican primary in New Hampshire in 2002.
Even some of the near-losses this year are better explained by factors other than incumbency.
Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln narrowly won renomination in Arkansas against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. But Halter ran because of Lincolns performance during the health care
debate. Halter did not run simply because she was an incumbent.
And in Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) survived a serious primary challenge from former state Speaker Andrew Romanoff. But since Bennet was appointed and not elected its not surprising that he did not coast to the nomination.
Democrats should not get too comfortable or excited about Republican infighting.
This fall nearly 6 dozen Democratic House Members are considered to be at risk compared with about 10 Republicans.
