By
James Kwak Sep 13 2009 12:06 AM
Authors Website
Ezra Klein shows the new
Census figures on the uninsured. The long-term trend is absolutely clear: employer-based coverage is declining and public coverage is increasing but not enough to make up the gap. Looking at the
underlying data we can see that 2008 was the eighth consecutive year in which the proportion of people covered by employer-based health insurance declined.
This is a point Ive also
tried to make before. Not only is employer-based coverage deteriorating but the reasons for that deterioration imply that it is likely to only accelerate. As health care costs continue to increase even if the rate of increase stays the same the rate of deterioration will increase because each year health care costs become a larger proportion of total costs and therefore harder to absorb. (Put another way if health care cost inflation remains around 7 per year each year it will be 7 of a larger proportion of employers costs.) Deterioration will take three forms some employers will drop health coverage altogether some will increase the share paid by employees and some will shift toward less-generous plans.
Kleins point is that it may be dangerous to premise health care reform on the idea that the employer-based system will remain what it is because it wont. My point was that because the employer-based system is slowly dying people with employer-based coverage should not be thinking I dont need health care reform Ive got my employer-based plan;" they should be thinking Im afraid of what will happen when my employer drops its plan so I need health care reform." Unfortunately I think both of us are right.
