As Democrats Lose Latinos Senate Likely Going Republican

Senate moving away from Ds control WASHINGTON D.C. (Texas Insider Report) Theres no question Democrats are going to be affected this mid-term. Theres no one to blame but Democrats themselves said Arturo Carmona executive director of the Hispanic engagement group Presente Action. Though Hispanics split heavily Democratic in 2012 mounting evidence suggests they are sitting the 2014 mid-terms out after immigration reform fell from the White House agenda.   Even some within the party say their midterm prognosis isnt good.

Democrats are going to have a bad Election Day no matter how you slice it" former White House press secretary Jay Carney told CNN on Tuesday evening.

With wins in West Virginia South Dakota and Montana all but certain the GOP feels increasingly optimistic about its chances of flipping Arkansas Alaska and Louisiana and nabbing at least one of the two most competitive swing states Iowa and Colorado. A Pew Poll released on Wednesday reveals:

• Democrats suffered an 8 drop in support from Hispanic voters nationwide since 2010 down to 57.
• Republicans have benefited in the meantime with 28 now saying they support a generic Republican House candidate.

The new survey provided hard numbers for the anecdotal evidence that President Obamas delay of executive action to halt deportations of illegal immigrants is coming back to haunt Democrats. The frustration with the president and his party among Hispanics is palpable and increasingly visible. In recent weeks Obama has faced multiple hecklers shouting frustration after the White House punted an executive order until after the November elections. Democratic strategists say are already seeing fallout from the prolonged inaction from President Obama and Congressional Democrats where the presidents ongoing broken promises have depressed engagement in the Latino community. A recent Latino Decisions poll found that vulnerable North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagans margin with Hispanics to be worse than the Pew polls national margin. Fifty-two percent of Hispanic registered voters polled earlier this month said they would or were leaning toward voting for Hagan while 26 said the same of her GOP opponent North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis. Another 26 were undecided. Colorado has also been ground zero for efforts to mobilize the Hispanic vote where Hispanics make up 15.4 of the eligible electorate this cycle. In 2010 Hispanics accounted for 10 of the Colorado electorate and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO.) took 81 of their support giving him a 6-point boost overall according to an analysis from Voto Latino. But a recent Latino Decisions poll suggests that this year Colorados other democrat Senator Mark Udall isnt running as strong with Hispanics --  66 say they either plan to or are leaning toward supporting him while 17 say the same of Republican Senate candidate Congressman Cory Gardner (R) while 16 remain undecided. Udalls internal polling shows things even closer with 57 of Hispanics supporting him and 30 backing Gardner. That makes the efforts to turn out Hispanic voters all the more pivotal for the troubled Colorado Democrat. While Udall was one of the first Democratic senators to criticize Obama for delaying executive action on deportations Gardners efforts have largely neutralized the immigration issue and the candidates dont speak about it much more than theyre asked. Eliseo Medina member of the board of directors of Mi Familia Vota Education Fund a non-partisan Hispanic mobilization group said he thinks elected officials not just in Colorado but more broadly this cycle. have been too feeble on immigration issues.

The politicians sometimes get so fearful about the voters that instead of responding to what people want they tend to play it safe. Or in the case of challengers they tend to want to use it as a wedge issue he said.

Its not just Colorado where the Hispanic vote could prove to be decisive and where Democrats could find themselves lamenting a missed opportunity after Election Day. In Georgia Hispanics make up 4 of the vote and Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn are separated by far less than that in recent surveys. But its difficult for these candidates to appeal to Hispanics because the immigration reform issue remains so toxic in red-leaning states that engaging in the debate could be damaging. The National Council of La Raza and their Georgia and Kansas affiliates are engaged in get-out-the-vote efforts. But the say they are operating in largely uncharted territory where its difficult to predict the 2014 impact they could have. Typically we see in states like Kansas and Georgia that the candidates are behind on Latino outreach said Matt Barreto co-founder of Latino Decisions noting that in many of these states not typically thought of as having a significant Hispanic voting population candidates efforts to court the demographic have been too little too late. TEXAS LATINO VOTE FOR GOVERNOR 2010

• Bill White: 80
• Rick Perry: 19
• Latino share of voters: 24
• Latino contribution to White: 14.6

Republicans say current polling mirrors 2006 a bad mid-term cycle for their own party when Democrats picked up six seats in the Senate. They note that every Republican incumbent polling below 48 support at this point in the cycle that year lost. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll out Tuesday underscores the GOPs advantage nationally. Across nine states with competitive Senate races voters prefer Republicans over Democrats in a generic House match-up 57 to 39. That poll also showed a majority of people say the governments ability to tackle big problems has declined and by 3 to 1 they blame President Obama and Democrats rather than Republicans in Congress. Kyle Kondik a political analyst at the University of Virginias Center for Politics said that the Democratic message of populist economic policies is being overshadowed by current events which are keeping Democrats on defense.

What happens in these mid-terms is typically when the presidents unpopular you become a victim of events" he said. The Democrats had a national strategy of talking about income inequality and minimum wage and reproductive rights but when there are multiple consecutive crises theres no media oxygen for those issues" Kondik said.

Democrats insist theyre running strong in the final week and say theyll continue to draw a contrast between their incumbents and flawed Republican challengers. But even with the current outlook Kondik said Democrats fortunes look grim. If theyre not pulling an upset in some of these places then they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat in one states where they look like theyre behind" he said.