If you are a congressional incumbent facing a difficult re-election campaign in 2010 you are more likely than most colleagues to buck the leadership of your party on legislative votes.
That is the major finding of an updated Congressional Quarterly analysis of House party unity" in the first seven months of 2009. This study determined how often each member voted with most members of the same party on votes that broke mainly along the partisan divide.
When it comes to dissenting from the party line no one is even close to Walt Minnick who sides with fellow Democrats on just two of every five votes that essentially broke along party lines.
Minnick is the freshman representative from Idahos 1st District usually a solid Republican stronghold where Barack Obama received just 36 percent of the votes as the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee. So Minnick a business-oriented Democrat who narrowly unseated one-term Republican Rep. Bill Sali in 2008 with 51 percent must establish a more conservative profile than the average House Democrat if he hopes to win re-election next year.
He is one of two Democrats in races currently rated as Tossup by CQ Politics. The other freshman Frank Kratovil Jr. of Marylands strongly conservative-leaning 1st District isnt as much a Democratic dissident as Minnick but he does break with the party line far more often than the norm. With a 73 percent unity score that is the seventh-lowest in his party Kratovil is bracing for a potential rematch with Republican state Sen. Andy Harris who lost their 2008 race by fewer than 3000 votes.
In fact the tendency to veer from party orthodoxy is more prevalent among Democrats who obtained and then solidified a House majority over the past two election cycles with a net gain of 54 seats many of them in districts that long had Republican orientations.
Straight party-line voting would carry political risks for Democrats in these political battlegrounds. Midterm elections tend to be tough for the party holding the White House so the 2010 cycle that should be less favorable for the Democrats and more favorable to the Republican Party than the 2006 and 2008 elections.
Nine of the 13 House Democrats with the lowest party unity scores are in races that CQ Politics includes in its two categories for highly competitive races. They include Minnick and Kratovil in the Tossup contests along with seven members in races rated Leans Democratic which gives the party a slight early edge but forecasts a very close race.
Among those Leans Democratic incumbents is Alabamas Bobby Bright who joins Minnick as the only other Democrat who sided with Republicans more frequently than with his own party on mainly party-line votes. A freshman who took over the Republican-held 2nd District by winning a close open-seat race in 2008 Bright had a 47 percent party unity score. Though he merits an early edge he faces a serious Republican challenger in Martha Roby a councilwoman in Montgomery where Bright formerly served as mayor.
Harry E. Mitchell of Arizonas 5th District who was re-elected with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 and Travis W. Childers of Mississippis 1st who won his seat in a May 2008 special election and was re-elected to a full term last November each have 65 percent party unity scores.
Yet not all politically vulnerable House Democrats are distancing themselves from most of their party colleagues. With a party unity score of 99 percent two-term Rep. Steve Kagen of Wisconsins 8th District has been siding with Democratic leaders almost unanimously on closely divided votes. Kagen won a second term last year with 54 percent of the vote just ahead of the 53 percent Obama received in the 8th. Three Republicans are vying to oppose Kagen next year in the northeastern Wisconsin district.
Freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohios 15th District has a 99 percent party unity score. She defeated Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers for the Columbus-area seat in one of 2008s closest House races and faces a 2010 rematch in which her voting record will be an issue.
Republicans are also promising vigorous 2010 challenges to freshman Rep. Alan Grayson of Floridas 8th District (98 percent party unity score) and two-term Rep. Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshires 1st District (97 percent).
Thinned GOP Less Divided
As for House Republicans about the only thing that can be said for their sharp reversals in the 2006 and 2008 elections is that they have far fewer members in political danger for 2010 than do the Democrats. Unlike their Democratic counterparts House Republicans with the lowest party unity scores by and large are politically secure.
There are exceptions though. Louisianas Anh Joseph" Cao the freshman from New Orleans heavily Democratic 2nd District has a 58 percent party unity score that is the lowest among the 178 House Republicans.
Cao is currently viewed by CQ Politics as the most vulnerable House incumbent in either party: His race is rated as Democrat Favored meaning the challenging party appears very likely to reclaim the seat. Caos 2008 victory was greatly abetted by the fact that his opponent was Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson who was under indictment on a variety of corruption charges for which he was ultimately convicted Aug. 5.
Cao is one of just six current House Republicans from districts that voted Democratic for president in both the 2004 and 2008 elections. And even within this group Cao stands out as his black-majority district gave 75 percent of its 2008 presidential vote to Obama.
That group of six also includes Dave Reichert who has sought an independent profile while fending off a series of Democratic challenges in Washingtons 8th District near Seattle. Reichert whose 62 percent party unity score is the sixth-lowest in the House Republican Conference was among the eight House Republicans who voted in June for a cap and trade" climate change bill favored mainly by Democrats.
Reichert faces a 2010 challenge from Democrat Suzan DelBene an executive in the regions high-tech industry in a race CQ Politics rates as Leans Republican.
Illinois Rep. Mark Steven Kirk like Reichert voted for the cap-and-trade bill and is from a district that went Democratic for president and Republican for the House. His posture as a Republican centrist illustrated by the 78 percent party unity score he has this year helped him hold his House seat in suburban Chicagos 10th District which is now highly vulnerable to Democratic takeover as Kirk pursues a bid in the states open-seat Senate race. The 2010 open-seat contest in Illinois 10 is rated Leans Democratic.
But Democratic strategists arent limiting their takeover ambitions to districts held by Republicans with relatively low party unity scores.
Among the Democrats more conservative targets is South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson (98 percent party unity) who is expected to face a rematch with Rob Miller an Iraq War veteran who kept him to 54 percent of the 2008 vote in the states 2nd District.
Two-term Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesotas 6th District (97 percent) is a staunch conservative who has faithful backers and some very aggressive detractors. Her 2010 Democratic opponent will be either state Sen. Tarryl Clark or physician Maureen Reed.
If you are a congressional incumbent facing a difficult re-election campaign in 2010 you are more likely than most colleagues to buck the leadership of your party on legislative votes.
That is the major finding of an updated Congressional Quarterly analysis of House party unity" in the first seven months of 2009. This study determined how often each member voted with most members of the same party on votes that broke mainly along the partisan divide.
When it comes to dissenting from the party line no one is even close to Walt Minnick who sides with fellow Democrats on just two of every five votes that essentially broke along party lines.
Minnick is the freshman representative from Idahos 1st District usually a solid Republican stronghold where Barack Obama received just 36 percent of the votes as the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee. So Minnick a business-oriented Democrat who narrowly unseated one-term Republican Rep. Bill Sali in 2008 with 51 percent must establish a more conservative profile than the average House Democrat if he hopes to win re-election next year.
He is one of two Democrats in races currently rated as Tossup by CQ Politics. The other freshman Frank Kratovil Jr. of Marylands strongly conservative-leaning 1st District isnt as much a Democratic dissident as Minnick but he does break with the party line far more often than the norm. With a 73 percent unity score that is the seventh-lowest in his party Kratovil is bracing for a potential rematch with Republican state Sen. Andy Harris who lost their 2008 race by fewer than 3000 votes.
In fact the tendency to veer from party orthodoxy is more prevalent among Democrats who obtained and then solidified a House majority over the past two election cycles with a net gain of 54 seats many of them in districts that long had Republican orientations.
Straight party-line voting would carry political risks for Democrats in these political battlegrounds. Midterm elections tend to be tough for the party holding the White House so the 2010 cycle that should be less favorable for the Democrats and more favorable to the Republican Party than the 2006 and 2008 elections.
Nine of the 13 House Democrats with the lowest party unity scores are in races that CQ Politics includes in its two categories for highly competitive races. They include Minnick and Kratovil in the Tossup contests along with seven members in races rated Leans Democratic which gives the party a slight early edge but forecasts a very close race.
Among those Leans Democratic incumbents is Alabamas Bobby Bright who joins Minnick as the only other Democrat who sided with Republicans more frequently than with his own party on mainly party-line votes. A freshman who took over the Republican-held 2nd District by winning a close open-seat race in 2008 Bright had a 47 percent party unity score. Though he merits an early edge he faces a serious Republican challenger in Martha Roby a councilwoman in Montgomery where Bright formerly served as mayor.
Harry E. Mitchell of Arizonas 5th District who was re-elected with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 and Travis W. Childers of Mississippis 1st who won his seat in a May 2008 special election and was re-elected to a full term last November each have 65 percent party unity scores.
Yet not all politically vulnerable House Democrats are distancing themselves from most of their party colleagues. With a party unity score of 99 percent two-term Rep. Steve Kagen of Wisconsins 8th District has been siding with Democratic leaders almost unanimously on closely divided votes. Kagen won a second term last year with 54 percent of the vote just ahead of the 53 percent Obama received in the 8th. Three Republicans are vying to oppose Kagen next year in the northeastern Wisconsin district.
Freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohios 15th District has a 99 percent party unity score. She defeated Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers for the Columbus-area seat in one of 2008s closest House races and faces a 2010 rematch in which her voting record will be an issue.
Republicans are also promising vigorous 2010 challenges to freshman Rep. Alan Grayson of Floridas 8th District (98 percent party unity score) and two-term Rep. Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshires 1st District (97 percent).
Thinned GOP Less Divided
As for House Republicans about the only thing that can be said for their sharp reversals in the 2006 and 2008 elections is that they have far fewer members in political danger for 2010 than do the Democrats. Unlike their Democratic counterparts House Republicans with the lowest party unity scores by and large are politically secure.
There are exceptions though. Louisianas Anh Joseph" Cao the freshman from New Orleans heavily Democratic 2nd District has a 58 percent party unity score that is the lowest among the 178 House Republicans.
Cao is currently viewed by CQ Politics as the most vulnerable House incumbent in either party: His race is rated as Democrat Favored meaning the challenging party appears very likely to reclaim the seat. Caos 2008 victory was greatly abetted by the fact that his opponent was Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson who was under indictment on a variety of corruption charges for which he was ultimately convicted Aug. 5.
Cao is one of just six current House Republicans from districts that voted Democratic for president in both the 2004 and 2008 elections. And even within this group Cao stands out as his black-majority district gave 75 percent of its 2008 presidential vote to Obama.
That group of six also includes Dave Reichert who has sought an independent profile while fending off a series of Democratic challenges in Washingtons 8th District near Seattle. Reichert whose 62 percent party unity score is the sixth-lowest in the House Republican Conference was among the eight House Republicans who voted in June for a cap and trade" climate change bill favored mainly by Democrats.
Reichert faces a 2010 challenge from Democrat Suzan DelBene an executive in the regions high-tech industry in a race CQ Politics rates as Leans Republican.
Illinois Rep. Mark Steven Kirk like Reichert voted for the cap-and-trade bill and is from a district that went Democratic for president and Republican for the House. His posture as a Republican centrist illustrated by the 78 percent party unity score he has this year helped him hold his House seat in suburban Chicagos 10th District which is now highly vulnerable to Democratic takeover as Kirk pursues a bid in the states open-seat Senate race. The 2010 open-seat contest in Illinois 10 is rated Leans Democratic.
But Democratic strategists arent limiting their takeover ambitions to districts held by Republicans with relatively low party unity scores.
Among the Democrats more conservative targets is South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson (98 percent party unity) who is expected to face a rematch with Rob Miller an Iraq War veteran who kept him to 54 percent of the 2008 vote in the states 2nd District.
Two-term Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesotas 6th District (97 percent) is a staunch conservative who has faithful backers and some very aggressive detractors. Her 2010 Democratic opponent will be either state Sen. Tarryl Clark or physician Maureen Reed.
