By Iain Martin - The Wall Street Journal
It has long been said that a crowbar will be required to finally prise Gordon Brown out of Number 10. On election night it looked as though even that would not be enough as he battled non-stop to find a way of staying on.
With the Conservatives failing to win an overall majority the Prime Minister is determined to try and continue despite big Labour losses. In this spirit in public in the early hours of the morning a punchy Lord Mandelson talked up a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
But they havent on the current projections got the numbers. It seems that this was the reluctant initial conclusion of a Labour summit at dawn at the partys HQ. Brown Mandelson campaign supremo Douglas Alexander and other senior figures met. They did the sums. Add together the likely number of Labour seats and Lib Dem seats and it comes to well short of the 326 required. Labour also thinks as the Tories seem to that the projections of 309 understates a bit where the Tories will end up. It would only be a runner if the Tories were down below that and the other two could get clearly more seats than Cameron.
Even then a government made up of a coalition of the defeated" - Brown and Clegg or another Labour leader and Clegg - would start with obvious disadvantages for all concerned. It would look like two parties that lost ganging up to deny the party with most seats and serious gains. Browns people are briefing that they are aware of this problem and that he doesnt want to be associated with a stitch-up". Thats the surest sign that their efforts to get a deal arent working out and they are preparing for a resignation with dignity.
Lord Mandelson has already begun the process of cutting the PM loose - leaving open the possibility of changing Labour leaders. There are a number of permutations" he mused.
However can they fix a deal if Brown goes? I doubt it. It is not in the interests of the battered and bruised Lib Dems to be seen as arranging a stitch-up either. Do they really want to arrange a deal with David Miliband as PM when the two parties would still not have as I explained a working majority? No matter how hard Mandelson spins I cannot see Nick Clegg thinking its the best way for him to proceed.
Meanwhile the Prime Minister has gone to bed for a few hours sleep. When he wakes closer to lunchtime the results picture will be clearer. But unless the situation shifts substantially in his favour - and mathematically its hard to see how that is possible - he will wake to the reality that he has lost. That he doesnt have the votes for a coalition deal. And that an attempt to get another Labour PM into Number 10 with the Lib Dems doesnt in the cold light of day quite add up either.
I struggle to see how the cabinet secretary Sir Gus ODonnell - with an eye on the markets and the public mood - will not want a clean break relatively quickly. I wager he will say quite soon: Gordon unless you have found 30 MPs behind the sofa its time. Shall I call the Palace and arrange an appointment? Oh and thanks for everything".
