Browns Upset Spurs Democratic Soul-Searching

By Emily Cadei CQ-Roll Call scott-hediditRepublican Scott Brown pulled off one of the biggest political upsets in recent history on Tuesday defeating Democrat Martha Coakley in Massachusetts hotly contested race to fill the Senate seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy . Coakley called Brown and conceded around 9:15 p.m. With 75 percent of precincts reporting Brown had 53 percent to Coakleys 46 percent in unofficial returns.  The outcome unthinkable only weeks ago has prompted deep soul-searching among Democrats who assumed control of government in Washington D.C. with President Barack Obama s inauguration exactly one year ago. Not even a last-minute visit from Obama himself could staunch the surge of momentum for Brown in the races final weeks. Its always up to the voters" said Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) whose father held the seat for 46 years. Its a Massachusetts seat. Its not my dads seat. Its not my familys seat." The Democratic Party and its allies poured more than $5 million into the unsuccessful effort to save Kennedys seat. Browns victory will strip Senate Democrats of their 60-seat super majority when Brown is sworn in something Republicans will likely try to expedite. The results of the special election are a stark warning sign for Democrats already nervous about the outlook for the 2010 midterm elections. Republicans deemed it a clear rejection of the Democratic agenda. This is a wakeup call for Democrats" acknowledged an aide at EMILYs List one of the organizations working to elect Coakley. Democrats have any number of explanations for how they managed to let the seat slip from their grasp but it essentially boils down to a poorly run campaign combined with a political environment that was more toxic than they anticipated. I think all of us probably shouldnt have rested on our laurels so much" said the EMILYs List aide. Internal polling he added showed her up by 20 points just before Christmas. Coakley the states attorney general was criticized for taking time off around the holidays and for holding a fraction of the public events that Brown did over the course of the general election. Brown meanwhile started to build momentum going up with his first advertisement on Dec. 30 a full week before Coakleys first ad of the general election. And he held a press conference call on New Years Eve touting his fundraising numbers. A Brown adviser told CQ Politics the race seemed to turn two weeks ago after the New Years holiday weekend. She declined to pinpoint a specific trigger though she did note it came after Coakley took off six days." On the Democratic side the finger pointing began earlier on Election Day never a good sign for a campaign with the Coakley campaign led by her Massachusetts-advisor and longtime confidant Dennis Newman fending off the brunt of the accusations. It all starts with the campaign and the fact that she ran the wrong general election campaign" said a Massachusetts-based Democratic strategist whose candidate lost in the special election primary. I think theres just no way around that fact." Had she or her campaign taken Brown seriously from the get go then he would have never gotten the lift that he needed to reach critical mass" the strategist said. However the EMILYs List aide said that while Washington groups are pointing the finger at other people now everyone was pretty much on the same page back in December. It wasnt until after the holidays that you could really see there were issues" he said. The Massachusetts strategist however said there were also issues with the campaigns message. The obvious path" in the general election campaign should have been to expose Browns conservative positions he said. But by ignoring him they created an opening for Brown a state senator to paint himself as a populist outsider framing his campaign squarely within the anti-establishment currents now dominating politics. The image was reinforced with folksy television spots produce by Eric Fehrnstrom and the team at Shawmut Group featuring President John F. Kennedy morphing into Brown and Brown driving his pick-up truck around Massachusetts shaking hands with voters. Fehrnstrom is a onetime aide to ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R). Brown also turned the campaign focus to health care touting his role as the potential 41st vote against the Democrats Senate bill a piece of legislation that has become unpopular even in liberal-leaning Massachusetts. Democrats interviewed by CQ Politics said Coakley would have been better served by focusing the campaign dialogue on the economy and populist appeals against Wall Street. Voters unaffiliated with either party make up just over half the Massachusetts electorate and the EMILYs list aide said that was who Coakley failed to convince. Democratic Senate candidates running in 2010 say they are well-aware of those challenges regardless of what happened in Massachusetts. Its not a surprise that were in a tough political climate but we knew that before Massachusetts" said Rose Kapolczynski Sen. Barbara Boxer s (D-Calif.) campaign manager. Boxer she said has a campaign rule which is always run like youre five points behind no matter what the polls says today and were following that in this race." Three Republicans are vying to take on Boxer in 2010 and they and other GOP challengers seized on the Massachusetts results as a sign that the party can win in traditionally Democratic states this fall. Like Massachusetts the unaffiliated voters are the largest voting bloc in California. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee which along with Democratic leaders mobilized 30 House staffers to campaign in Massachusetts also is bracing for a political backlash over the result though they say their House candidates are tested and ready. One aide there said the biggest takeaway from Massachusetts for House Democrats is that Democrats need to define Republicans before they have the opportunity to define themselves." This guy Scott Brown didnt run as a Republican his literature didnt say he was a Republican the Republicans brand is still in the toilet" the DCCC aide said. This is a very tough election cycle and voters are definitely angry" he said. What we need to make sure we do is make sure voters are angry at the right people."
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