By R.G. Ratcliffe - Express-News
AUSTIN The U.S. Census Bureau forms arriving in Texans mailboxes this week will start the decennial dance over whether cities such as San Antonio or Houston get new seats in Congress through redistricting. While the Census is nonpartisan the redistricting process is highly political.
How districts are drawn can determine whether they are competitive or are solidly Democratic or Republican.
Texas currently sends 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats to Congress. If the state gets four new seats they likely will be split: two Republican and two Democratic.
But the GOP also is likely to look for ways to reconfigure the districts of Democratic U.S. Reps. Chet Edwards of Waco and Lloyd Doggett of Austin to make it difficult for them to win re-election in 2012.
Experts early looks at census estimates point to a potential new congressional district in northwest Harris County. That could be alluring to state Sen. Dan Patrick R-Houston who represents the same area in the
Legislature.
A new Hispanic-majority congressional district is likely to find a home along Interstate 35 between San Antonio and Austin.
Another Hispanic-majority district probably will land in Dallas County. But because of population shifts to the suburbs Dallas likely will lose a seat in the Texas House of Representatives.
The location of a fourth congressional district for Texas will be the subject of political debate a year from now.
The number of districts Texas will add to its current 32 will be determined by post-Census reapportionment nationally.
By some estimates Texas on July 1 2009 was 152000 people short of picking up four new U.S. House districts a population shortage public officials think can be made up by an accurate count on April 1.
State officials Friday launched a program to make sure a full count occurs.
The Census is important to our state for a number of reasons. Many resources are allocated to state and local governments each year based on
the Census count" Secretary of State Hope Andrade said. Our states number of representatives in Congress is determined by the size and growth of our population."
Ten years ago she noted earlier the Texas participation rate was 5 percent lower than the national average.
Besides the purely partisan questions the district lines also determine whether minority voters have a major say in who represents them in Congress.
The political parties tend to view redistricting first through the lens of partisan advantage" said Nina Perales regional counsel for the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Educational Fund.
Perales noted that in 2003 the Republicans created a new black-dominant district in Houston with the intention of defeating Anglo incumbent Democrats Chris Bell and Nick Lampson. That new district now is held by U.S. Rep. Al Green D-Houston.
The Texas redistricting battle that stretched from 2001 to 2003 was highly partisan. Democrats broke two legislative quorums in an unsuccessful bid to stop a power shift from Democrats to Republicans in the Legislature and congressional delegation.
Fast population growth in one area may not mean that is where a new congressional district goes. A large population may be divided into multiple districts if it creates a partisan advantage.
Ultimately its a political decision" Republican consultant Eric Opiela said.
The first consideration he said is maintaining minority districts to satisfy federal law.
The districts of U.S. Rep. Charles Gonzalez D-San Antonio and U.S. Reps. Shelia Jackson Lee Gene Green and Al Green all D-Houston have not experienced population growth that matches the states.
But Opiela said the federal Voting Rights Act will require those districts be retained.
Democratic political consultant Matt Angle and Perales predicted new Hispanic districts for the San Antonio and Dallas areas. Angle said he also believes a new Republican district will go into northwest Harris County.
Angle said an argument can be made for another Republican district north of Dallas but theres a dynamic that gets lost when you just think about it geographically."
All of (the other new districts) should be used for African Americans and Hispanics because they are the ones responsible for our growth" he said.
