By Alexander Bolton The Hill
Half a dozen members of the Senate Democratic Conference pose the biggest threat to President Obamas agenda giving Senate Republicans a fighting chance to block the administrations major expansions of government. Now that Democrats control 60 votes Republicans must peel off a few members of the majority to stage a filibuster.
GOP leaders have begun reaching out to these centrists hoping they will buck their party on Obamas two biggest initiatives: healthcare reform and climate change legislation.
Leading the pack of potential defectors are Sen. Ben Nelson a pro-business Democrat from Nebraska; Sen. Joe Lieberman a self-described Independent Democrat from Connecticut; and Sen. Mary Landrieu a Louisiana Democrat who represents a conservative state.
All three have expressed concerns about the core element in Obamas healthcare proposal: a government-run insurance program that would compete with the private sector. The three also worked together this year to successfully cut more than $100 billion from Obamas economic stimulus package.
The other Democrats who are expected to voice the most serious objections to either or both of the administrations top priorities are: Sens. Evan Bayh (Ind.) Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Mark Pryor (Ark.).
The Democratic Conference has 60 votes if theyre all here and if they are straight party-line that means that Republicans cannot stop legislation" said Senate Republican Whip Jon Kyl (Ariz.).
But it is not all that common to have total party-line votes. If a couple of Democrats dont vote with their party then it doesnt matter that they have 60 votes."
Lieberman who opposed Obama in the general election and then needed Obamas support to hang onto his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee has indicated he may vote against Obamas healthcare reform initiative.
If we create a public option the public is going to end up paying for it" Lieberman told a home-state newspaper last week. Thats a cost we cant take on."
Marshall Wittmann Liebermans communications director said his boss favors significant healthcare reform even though he does not agree with Obama on the public option.
Although Sen. Lieberman does not support a public option he strongly supports healthcare reform that expands access lowers costs and increases quality of care" said Wittmann.
Nelson initially suggested that he would oppose the public option. Now he says he will withhold judgment but warns against any proposal that would undermine private insurance plans.
If a public plan is drafted with the intent to substantially undermine the existing health insurance that 200 million Americans have he would have a very tough time of supporting it" said Nelson spokesman Jake Thompson.
On Obamas other major initiative combating global warming by implementing a cap-and-trade program to limit carbon emissions Nelson minces no words: Hes against it.
Landrieu has angered liberal activists by seeming to go out of her way to express opposition to the public option while other centrist Democrats have stayed quiet on the issue. Lobbyists for environmental groups that favor Obamas cap-and-trade proposal expect opposition from Landrieu who has a long history of looking out for the oil and gas industries in Louisiana.
Bayh Lincoln and Pryor have stayed largely quiet on the most controversial questions in the healthcare reform debate.
But Democrats and activists such as Richard Kirsch the campaign manager of Healthcare for America Now view them warily.
The public option is the easiest thing to focus on but another major question is how much to spend" said Kirsch. Bayh has been very quiet on the public option but he had questions on the budget and the stimulus."
Indeed Bayh surprised Democratic leaders earlier this year by coming out against a $410 billion omnibus spending bill stalling the measure on the Senate floor. He also voted against the budget.
Lincoln teamed up with Senate Republicans during debate over the budget resolution to pass an amendment raising the exemption and lowering the rate for the estate tax. Both Pryor and Lincoln have expressed concern with the Employee Free Choice Act a major priority of labor unions backed by most Democrats.
On climate change and energy legislation Bayh Lincoln and Pryor are seen as a collective headache for Democratic leaders.
Anna Aurilio a lobbyist for Environment America a liberal group ranked Nelson Landrieu Bayh Lincoln and Pryor as the toughest Democrats to persuade to join Democratic leaders on environmental votes.
She said that Nelson and Landrieu would present the biggest challenge on climate change legislation Nelson and Landrieu say the proposal would raise electricity rates and affect jobs in their states.
Aurilio noted that Bayh voted against a renewable electricity standard during an Energy and Natural Resources Committee markup.
Lieberman Nelson and other centrist Democrats give Republican leaders hope they can stop healthcare and climate proposals favored by Obama and most Democrats even though they control only 40 seats not enough to sustain a filibuster.
A senior GOP aide said that Senate Republicans would introduce alternative healthcare and energy proposals and will attempt to persuade or pressure centrist Democrats to support them.
The absolute reality is that youll have Democratic senators uncomfortable being tied to the Democratic leadership position especially on healthcare energy and spending which is where youll see most discomfort" said the aide.
Another GOP aide said that Republican leaders will unveil a broad healthcare reform package later this summer and centrist Democrats will be asked to support it.
Youll see a comprehensive proposal from the GOP side and we would be happy to see any Democrats join onto a bipartisan alternative" said the aide.
Republicans have made special overtures to Lieberman. Kyl has teamed up with Lieberman on various national security issues and Senate Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) hosts a weekly bipartisan breakfast with Lieberman.
Ron Bonjean who formerly served as chief of staff under Kyl said: Creating bipartisan coalitions on key issues is important to prevent Democrat legislative victories.
Getting Democratic moderates is extremely important" he added.
