By Austin Bay

The 23-year-old photograph is a stunning record of Chinese courage past and an insight into Chinas present political turmoil. Unless Chinas government chooses liberty and just law over tyranny and crony corruption the picture prefigures a bloody future history.
I am referring to one of 1989s most famous photos: the lone Chinese protestor in Beijings Tiananmen Square who stands in front of a Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) main battle tank. The dramatic confrontation occurred June 5 1989 the day after PLA gunfire at the order of Communist leader Deng Xiaoping killed some 2000 demonstrators in the square. Everyone in China understood Dengs message. Economic modernization? Yes Chinas Communists had learned they and their country (in that order) needed money and new technology in order to survive. Demands for political freedom however would attract bullets.
Tiananmen Squares Tank Man was eventually dragged into the surrounding crowd and ... he disappeared. The Chinese government claims it has never found the man and doesnt know his name. Cynics suggest Beijing inspect one of its secret jails or an unmarked grave.
Other famous photos from 1989 also furrow the brows of Chinas current leaders: those midnight Nov. 9 pix of East and West Berliners partying on and around the suddenly cracked Berlin Wall. The elated crowd of Ossis and Wessis knows the terror is over. Russia and East Germany changed not the U.S. and West Germany. European Communists were no longer shooting their own people.
The photos of Tank Man halting a tank platoon in column and of scruffy Berlin teens mocking what hours before was the concrete evil sealing an international prison capture moments of elemental truth amid complex circumstances. Tank Mans pic says confronting tyranny takes courage and a man holding two shopping bags suddenly displays that courage. The Berlin montage confirms liberty takes courage to defend and its worth it. Liberty is more productive and more fun than tyranny.
Chinas angry people understand. Protests broke out last year in the village of Wukan (Guangdong province) when corrupt Communist officials stole community land and sold it. The anti-corruption protests have not (yet) led to a second Tiananmen massacre. Thats good. The village however was besieged by security forces after a villager died in police custody and angry villagers clashed with police.
Beijing responded to Wukans mini-rebellion by allowing free local elections which the old Commies lost. Wukan is arguably a model for peaceful liberalization in China. But skeptical Chinese (as well as Syrians and Egyptians) argue that in the age of the Internet and cellphone videos smart oppressors merely appear to respond to local grievances in order to minimize negative political repercussions. But fundamental change? Forget it.
Last month one of Wukans new leaders complained that the corrupt officials had received light punishments. Land grabs by corrupt officials continue unabated.
Which brings us to last weeks sad incident when Chinese dissident Chen Guancheng escaped from house arrest and sought refuge in the U.S. embassy in Beijing. Chen requested asylum. The Obama administration those detached academic toffs who tried to ignore Irans Green Revolution lest talks with Tehrans ayatollahs fizzle denied Chens request. Oh some sort of deal has been slapped together. An embarrassed Beijing says Chen may study in the U.S. Well see.
Regardless the affable Chen is a Tank Man everyone knows by name. He dreads torture but just keeps talking. Beijing worried that the Arab Spring would embolden Chinas people. Chen indicates that Chinese dissidents no longer fear direct confrontation with the regime.
The dissidents have exposed cracks in the Communist Partys Great Wall of corrupt monied despotism and state repression. China Communists dont want a Berlin Wall ending; Dengs economic modernization was designed to maintain Communist Party control. Another Tiananmen however might incite dozens of local rebellions and produce a Chinese Syria.
This fall China faces a change in senior leadership. Pray the new leaders opt for a Berlin transition not Tiananmen destruction.
Columnist Austin Bay is syndicated by Creators