By Emily Cadei CQ-Roll Call
Doug Hoffman the third-party upstart now backed by the Republican Party has pulled ahead in Tuesdays special House election in upstate New York according to two polls conducted over the weekend. Doug Hoffman looks like he will win a resounding victory" wrote Dean Debnam President of Public Policy Polling. A Siena College poll conducted Nov. 1 concluded that Hoffman now leads Democrat Bill Owens 41 percent to 36 percent after the two were essentially tied in a Siena poll released Saturday morning. That polls margin of error is 4 percent.
Hoffman whose name is on the ballot as the candidate of the Conservative Party was the prime beneficiary of Saturdays surprise announcement by Dede Scozzafava the Republican nominee that she was withdrawing from the race due to a lack of support and funds.
She had taken a beating from Democrats as well as Republicans who deemed her too liberal on social and some fiscal issues and a long list of lawmakers and conservative luminaries had gotten on board with Hoffmans campaign over the past week. With Scozzafava out the Republican Party swiftly moved to endorse Hoffman and a chunk of GOP voters who had backed Scozzafava have followed suit helping Hoffman take the lead over Owens.
The
Republican National Committee is now running a radio ad in the district encouraging voters to back Hoffman.
That district is electing a new House member because Republican Rep. John M. McHugh vacated the seat when he became secretary of the Army.
A survey by
Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling pegs Hoffmans lead at 51 percent to 34 percent with a margin of error of 2.3 percent.
The PPP poll was conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 in the midst of the news of Scozzafavas withdrawal and her subsequent endorsement of Owens.
That poll found that 13 percent of those surveyed still supported Scozzafava and 3 percent were undecided. But in a release analyzing its results PPP wrote that despite a tumultuous polling weekend" there were no significant differences in the numbers at any point over the course of the weekend.
Hoffman led Owens by 18 points in interviews before Scozzafavas withdrawal 19 points in between her withdrawal and the announcement of
her endorsement and by 14 points subsequent to her encouraging people to vote for Owens."
The Siena poll conducted after Scozzafava dropped out found that Hoffmans support among Republicans jumped from 50 percent to 63 percent since late last week but his proportion of the independent vote dropped slightly.
Owens now has the lead among independents according to the poll 43 percent to 37 percent for Hoffman.
It appears however that the majority of Scozzafavas supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens but rather into the undecided column which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy" wrote Siena pollster Steven Greenberg highlighting the 18 percent of likely voters who now say they are unsure who they will vote for.
One worrying sign for Owens as the candidates work to get their backers to the polls on Tuesday: Those who told PPP they plan to vote reported having backed Republican John McCain for president over Democrat Barack Obama by a 51-43 margin an indication of reduced Democratic turnout" the firm noted.
Democrats hope Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. s visit to the district Monday can help rally party voters. Siena found that Biden has a net
unfavorable rating among district voters 41 percent unfavorable to 37 percent favorable but remains popular among Democrats with 64 percent viewing him favorably.
Pollsters for Siena and PPP ultimately drew different conclusions about the race.
Sienas Greenberg was far more cautious. With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava and her subsequent endorsement of Owens this is still a wide open race" he said in a statement.
