Sixty-six weeks from the 2010 election neither Democrats nor Republicans have a clear advantage in the all-important races for the Senate where Democrats for now have a working but sometimes fractious supermajority" of 60. Each party will be defending 18 seats next year and only seven races are at this point considered tossups.
Democrats hope to build on the 15 seats they have picked up since 2006 (including the defection last year by Pennsylvanias formerly Republican Arlen Specter ). The Republicans of course want to drive the Democratic majority as far below 60 seats as they can. (Actually retaking control in the midterm election appears out of reach.)
Each party has some particular political challenges: Republicans have three seats left open by retiring incumbents in battleground states Missouri New Hampshire and Ohio and each of those contests is on the current roster of tossups. And two of their incumbents Jim Bunning of Kentucky and Richard M. Burr of North Carolina face serious challenges.
Democrats have some of their biggest problems clustered curiously in what has become perhaps the partys strongest region: the Northeast. In Connecticut Christopher J. Dodd is tied to the unpopular financial industry. Next door in New York appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is laboring to build a statewide base. And in Pennsylvania Specters party flip has not insulated him from serious challengers. The party also faces a close race for the Illinois seat formerly held by President Obama which has come open because beleaguered appointee Roland W. Burris has decided not to mount an uphill election run.
To view the entire landscape click here. This is the current handicapping of the tossup races where theres no clear favorite" for either party:
CONNECTICUT: Dodd the chairman of the Banking Committee is in the fight of his career for a sixth term because of his close ties to the troubled financial industry including his authorship of legislation that helped make possible the much-maligned AIG bonuses. Three Republicans former Rep. Rob Simmons state Sen. Sam Caligiuri and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley say theyll run to challenge Dodd; a fourth investor and financial analyst Peter Schiff is interested. The state has been reliably Democratic at the presidential level but has had a GOP governor since 2004.
ILLINOIS: A potentially strong Democratic field was already forming before Burris announced this month that he wouldnt run to hold on to the seat that since-impeached Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich gave him in December. Democrats have won nine of the states last 10 Senate races. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is eyeing a primary contest that could include Chris Kennedy a Chicago businessman and a son of Robert F. Kennedy and Cheryle Jackson the president of the Chicago Urban League. Republicans see opportunity in the turmoil over Burris and Blagojevich who now faces trial on a raft of corruption charges; their likely candidate is Rep. Mark Steven Kirk a moderate whos won five times in a pro-Obama district north of Chicago.
KENTUCKY: Bunning a prickly personality with low job approval ratings won both his previous races by extremely close margins. Some Republican officials are pressing him to retire at age 79 so the GOP can field a more likable candidate but the Hall of Fame pitcher has dug in his heels. Dan Mongiardo a little-known state senator when he challenged Bunning in 2004 is now the lieutenant governor and wants a rematch. He was joined in the Democratic field in April by state Attorney General Jack Conway.
MISSOURI: When Republican Christopher S. Bond in January announced his retirement after four terms it set up a highly competitive race in a state that John McCain carried by just 4000 votes last fall. Democrats are rallying around Secretary of State Robin Carnahan from the states most prominent political family. On the Republican side seven-term Rep. Roy Blunt is a confirmed candidate and Sarah Steelman a former state treasurer is also considering the race.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: The Judd Gregg retirement was unwelcome news for the state GOP which like its counterparts throughout New England is fighting a Democratic trend. The partys fondest hope for this race was burst this month when John E. Sununu who was unseated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen last year decided against a comeback bid. Republican recruiters have instead turned to state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and former Rep. Charles Bass. Democrats appear set on Paul W. Hodes a two-term congressman.
NORTH CAROLINA: Democrats stand a chance of picking up the states other Senate seat if they can find a solid challenger to Richard M. Burr who in 2004 succeeded Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards. Obama narrowly won the state last year and Democrat Kay Hagan unseated Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Burr might have gained running room when popular state Attorney General Roy Cooper announced in May that he would not run for the seat; Democratic recruiters are still looking for a top-tier candidate.
OHIO: Republican George V. Voinovich announced in January that he would not seek a third term in a state where the Democrats have scored big wins recently including landslides by Sherrod Brown for the Senate and Ted Strickland for governor in 2006 and Obamas triumph there in November.
Republicans have an experienced candidate in Rob Portman a former Cincinnati-area congressman and later President George W. Bush s budget director. Auto dealer Tom Ganley is also in the GOP contest. The Democratic field for the open-seat race includes Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.
Sixty-six weeks from the 2010 election neither Democrats nor Republicans have a clear advantage in the all-important races for the Senate where Democrats for now have a working but sometimes fractious supermajority" of 60. Each party will be defending 18 seats next year and only seven races are at this point considered tossups.
Democrats hope to build on the 15 seats they have picked up since 2006 (including the defection last year by Pennsylvanias formerly Republican Arlen Specter ). The Republicans of course want to drive the Democratic majority as far below 60 seats as they can. (Actually retaking control in the midterm election appears out of reach.)
Each party has some particular political challenges: Republicans have three seats left open by retiring incumbents in battleground states Missouri New Hampshire and Ohio and each of those contests is on the current roster of tossups. And two of their incumbents Jim Bunning of Kentucky and Richard M. Burr of North Carolina face serious challenges.
Democrats have some of their biggest problems clustered curiously in what has become perhaps the partys strongest region: the Northeast. In Connecticut Christopher J. Dodd is tied to the unpopular financial industry. Next door in New York appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is laboring to build a statewide base. And in Pennsylvania Specters party flip has not insulated him from serious challengers. The party also faces a close race for the Illinois seat formerly held by President Obama which has come open because beleaguered appointee Roland W. Burris has decided not to mount an uphill election run.
To view the entire landscape click here. This is the current handicapping of the tossup races where theres no clear favorite" for either party:
CONNECTICUT: Dodd the chairman of the Banking Committee is in the fight of his career for a sixth term because of his close ties to the troubled financial industry including his authorship of legislation that helped make possible the much-maligned AIG bonuses. Three Republicans former Rep. Rob Simmons state Sen. Sam Caligiuri and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley say theyll run to challenge Dodd; a fourth investor and financial analyst Peter Schiff is interested. The state has been reliably Democratic at the presidential level but has had a GOP governor since 2004.
ILLINOIS: A potentially strong Democratic field was already forming before Burris announced this month that he wouldnt run to hold on to the seat that since-impeached Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich gave him in December. Democrats have won nine of the states last 10 Senate races. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is eyeing a primary contest that could include Chris Kennedy a Chicago businessman and a son of Robert F. Kennedy and Cheryle Jackson the president of the Chicago Urban League. Republicans see opportunity in the turmoil over Burris and Blagojevich who now faces trial on a raft of corruption charges; their likely candidate is Rep. Mark Steven Kirk a moderate whos won five times in a pro-Obama district north of Chicago.
KENTUCKY: Bunning a prickly personality with low job approval ratings won both his previous races by extremely close margins. Some Republican officials are pressing him to retire at age 79 so the GOP can field a more likable candidate but the Hall of Fame pitcher has dug in his heels. Dan Mongiardo a little-known state senator when he challenged Bunning in 2004 is now the lieutenant governor and wants a rematch. He was joined in the Democratic field in April by state Attorney General Jack Conway.
MISSOURI: When Republican Christopher S. Bond in January announced his retirement after four terms it set up a highly competitive race in a state that John McCain carried by just 4000 votes last fall. Democrats are rallying around Secretary of State Robin Carnahan from the states most prominent political family. On the Republican side seven-term Rep. Roy Blunt is a confirmed candidate and Sarah Steelman a former state treasurer is also considering the race.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: The Judd Gregg retirement was unwelcome news for the state GOP which like its counterparts throughout New England is fighting a Democratic trend. The partys fondest hope for this race was burst this month when John E. Sununu who was unseated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen last year decided against a comeback bid. Republican recruiters have instead turned to state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and former Rep. Charles Bass. Democrats appear set on Paul W. Hodes a two-term congressman.
NORTH CAROLINA: Democrats stand a chance of picking up the states other Senate seat if they can find a solid challenger to Richard M. Burr who in 2004 succeeded Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards. Obama narrowly won the state last year and Democrat Kay Hagan unseated Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Burr might have gained running room when popular state Attorney General Roy Cooper announced in May that he would not run for the seat; Democratic recruiters are still looking for a top-tier candidate.
OHIO: Republican George V. Voinovich announced in January that he would not seek a third term in a state where the Democrats have scored big wins recently including landslides by Sherrod Brown for the Senate and Ted Strickland for governor in 2006 and Obamas triumph there in November.
Republicans have an experienced candidate in Rob Portman a former Cincinnati-area congressman and later President George W. Bush s budget director. Auto dealer Tom Ganley is also in the GOP contest. The Democratic field for the open-seat race includes Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.
