Crucial Non-College White Vote Breaking for Romney says Poll

Obamas sharpest declines are among crucial non-college whites Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. President Obama has slipped most acutely among downscale white voters according to a Pew Research Center poll released Monday with both Mitt Romney & the president earning 47 of the vote. Only 6 of likely voters remain undecided leaving both candidates the fight over the ever narrowing slice of the electorate.   Obama is seeking to hold onto enough voters in predominantly white states like Ohio which are made up of a larger share of voters without college degrees. But Romneys turnout advantage looms large. The poll represents a slight tightening from the previous Pew Research Center poll which found Romney narrowly ahead in the wake of the 1st Presidential Debate. The poll also depicts a turnout advantage for Republicans with Romney supporters more likely to say they will cast ballots. The poll shows a fairly narrow gender gap consistent with the previous Pew poll and an Associated Press Poll last week.

1. Romney sports a 7-point lead among men 51 to 44. Obama meanwhile leads among women 50 to 44. In the previous Pew poll Romney led by 8 points among men and tied Obama among women.
2. Voters under age 30 support Obama by a wide margin 56 to 35. But that represents a decline for the president from his performance with that group in 2008 when he won nearly two-thirds of voters under 30.
3. Voters 65 and older choose Romney by a 19-point margin 57 to 38 up from Sen. John McCains 8-point edge among seniors in 2008.
4. Romney leads among white voters 57 to 37 with 6 remaining undecided.
5. College white voters tilt to Romney by a 7-point margin 51 to 44 while non-college whites favor Romney overwhelmingly 61 to 32.

If the undecided white voters broke evenly between the two candidates on Election Day that would leave each near his target among whites. The most significant gap in the vote preferences of white voters occurs between whites with college degrees and those without. It is thought that Obama can win reelection by winning 2 in 5 white voters while Romney needs to hit the 60 mark. White voters make up 74 of Pews sample of likely voters roughly equal to their share of the 2008 electorate according to exit polls. Obamas declines have been sharpest among non-college whites dropping 8 percentage points from the 2008 exit poll while Romney has added 3 points to McCains level of support. The president has dropped 3 percentage points among college whites the poll shows while Romney has matched McCains haul. At the same time the changing electorates in states like Virginia -- combining sizable minority populations with more educated whites -- boosted his performance in 2008 and may continue to buoy his poll numbers in those states. But Romneys turnout advantage looms large. His supporters are currently more likely to say they have given a lot of thought to the election that they are following campaign news very closely and that they definitely plan to vote.

More than three-quarters of Republicans in the general pool of all respondents are classified as likely voters while just 63 of self-identified Democrats meet that standard.

Voters the poll indicated say Romney has new ideas and would help improve the job situation. But Obama scores higher on being a strong leader being more moderate connecting well with ordinary Americans and on foreign policy. The poll was conducted Oct. 24 to 28 and surveyed 2008 adults via landline and cellular telephones. Of those respondents 1678 said they were registered to vote and 1495 were deemed likely to vote.