By: David Freddoso - Washington Examiner
Online Opinion Editor
When U.S. Census reports the new population numbers next month state legislators and commissions around the nation will begin the process of redrawing each states congressional districts to keep up with population shifts. And wherever they can the parties will be working to give themselves an advantage.
Before Election 2010 Democrats were on pace to control redistricting in several important states. But Tuesdays election changed everything creating a lopsided redistricting advantage for the GOP.
Before the election Democrats had complete control in some pretty important states -- places where a bit of gerrymandering can go a long way toward changing the composition of the U.S. House: Pennsylvania North Carolina Wisconsin New York Iowa and New Mexico to name a few. But Tuesdays Republican gains in state legislatures (more than 600 seats) and governorships have deprived Democrats of control at just the wrong time.
The accompanying chart shows which party (if either) will control redistricting in each state. The third column is for states that use nonpartisan commissions (Californians just adopted a commission system) states that have split control in the legislature or governorship and states that have only one at-large seat.
No amount of gerrymandering can guarantee long-term power. And in Florida Republican legislators will be hindered in their map-making by a ballot initiative that is supposed to make for fairer districts. But still the near absence of Democrats from the levers of redistricting power should provide the GOP an advantage when it seeks to protect its House majority in 2012.
About the chart:
- Republican gains since the 2001 remapping are in red. Democratic gains are in blue.
- States projected to lose one or more House seats are in italics and states set to gain them are in bold.
- There is a possibility that Missouri will lose a seat instead of Minnesota. This does not affect the top-line totals.
- This assumes Democrat Mark Daytons victory as governor of Minnesota.
- The governor of North Carolina has no veto power over redistricting.
REPUBLICAN CONTROL (197 Districts 99 from 2001
Alabama (7)
Florida (26)
Georgia (14)
Indiana (9)
Kansas (4)
Maine (2)
Michigan (14)
Nebraska (3)
New Hampshire (2)
North Carolina (13)
Ohio (16)
Oklahoma (5)
Pennsylvania (18)
South Carolina (7)
Tennessee (9)
Texas (36)
Utah (4)
Wisconsin (8)
DEMOCRAT CONTROL (49 Districts -86 from 2001)
Arkansas (4)
Connecticut (5)
Illinois (18)
Maryland (8)
Massachusetts (9)
Rhode Island (2)
West Virginia (3)
SPLIT/COMM./AT LG (189 Districts -10 from 2001)
Alaska (AL)
Arizona (9)
Delaware (AL)
California (53)
Colorado (7)
Hawaii (2)
Idaho (2)
Iowa (4)
Kentucky (6)
Louisiana (6)
Minnesota (7)
Mississippi (4)
Missouri (9)
Montana (AL)
Nevada (4)
New Jersey (12)
New Mexico (3)
New York (28)
North Dakota (AL)
Oregon (5)
South Dakota (AL)
Vermont (AL)
Virginia (11)
Washington (10)
Wyoming (AL)
David Freddoso is The Examiners online opinion editor.
