Washington Post-ABC News Poll: Democrats at risk in November
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections with President Obamas approval rating at a new low and a majority of
voters saying they prefer Congress in Republican hands. According to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Obamas approval rating has fallen to 41 through the first three months of 2014 the lowest of his presidency.
- 50 of Americans say implementation of the Presidents landmark health law has not met expectations
- Just 37 approve of his handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act
- Just 42 approve of his handling of the economy and
- Just 34 approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia
Obamas low rating could be a significant drag on Democratic candidates this fall past elections suggest that when approval ratings are as low as Obamas the presidents party is
almost certain to suffer at the ballot box in November.
Republicans are favored to maintain control of the House with the focus now on whether they can take control of the Senate.
One key question about November is who will vote. The Congressional Ballot shows a dead heat among all Registered Voters but Republicans hold an edge among those Most Likely to Vote.
Turnout in midterm elections is always lower than in presidential elections and at this point key elements of the Republican coalition namely white voters and older voters say they are more certain to cast ballots this fall than are younger voters and minorities two groups that Democrats and Obama relied on in 2008 and 2012.
Democrats are not without assets as the midterm election campaigns intensify. But as the Washington Post-ABC News Poll reflects today there is little evidence that those assets outweigh either the normal midterm disadvantages of the party that holds the White House or
the dissatisfaction with the general direction of the country and Obamas leadership generally.
The Affordable Care Act is expected to be a major issue in the midterm elections. Obama recently urged Democrats to defend the law energetically particularly after the administration announced that 8 million people signed up for it during the initial enrollment period.
Republicans are confident that opposition to the new law will energize their supporters.
The Post-ABC poll found that 44 say they support the law while 48 say they oppose it which is about where it was at the end of last year and in January. Half of all Americans also say they think implementation is worse than expected.
A 58 majority say the new law is causing higher costs overall and 47 say it will make the health-care system worse.
While a majority say the quality of the health care they receive will remain the same a plurality expect it to result in higher personal costs for that care.
A number of Democratic strategists are urging their candidates to campaign on a message that calls for continued implementation of the law with fixes. These strategists say that message is more popular than the repeal and replace" theme of the Republicans.
Democrats are hoping to put Republicans on the defensive on the question of what next" for the Affordable Care Act. Republicans say they remain confident that the health-care issue will help them more in November.
Pessimism about the economy also persists with more than 7 in 10 describing the economy in negative terms. Public attitudes about the future of the economy are anything but rosy. Just 28 say they think the economy is getting better while 36 say it is getting worse and 35 say its staying the same.
Americans express continued discontent about the countrys direction with two-thirds saying things are on the wrong track.
Among registered voters 45 intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in House elections this fall and 44 for the Republican candidate. Based on past elections that close margin is
troubling news for Democrats. Shortly before they lost control of the House in 2010 Democrats held a five-point advantage on this question.
Another measure of voting intentions came when people were asked whether they thought it was more important to have Democrats in charge in Congress to help support Obamas policies or Republicans in charge to act as a check on the presidents policies. On this 53 of voters say Republicans and 39 say Democrats. That is almost identical to the results of the same question when it was asked in September 2010 two months before the GOP landslide.
The worry for Obama and his party is that many of the Democrats who disapprove of Obamas performance simply wont show up in November.
Although Obamas overall approval rating is at its lowest point ever in Post-ABC polls his disapproval is still a few points better than at its worst. Thats because more people than usual say they had no opinion.
Also the disapproval of Obamas handling of the situation with Ukraine and Russia is 46 with 20 saying they have no opinion on that perhaps a sign that Americans see few good policy options for the United States in the standoff.
Some Democratic strategists have argued that their candidates have ample arguments to make against Republicans this fall and the Post-ABC survey sheds light on what they are.
Democrats have a significant advantage on eight issues from health care to climate change to abortion and same-sex marriage. Democrats have a smaller advantage on immigration and the two parties are roughly equal on the economy. Republicans have the edge on three guns the deficit and striking the right balance on which government programs to cut.
Where Democrats have the biggest advantages are on the same contrasts that helped Obama win reelection in 2012 indicators of which party voters believe is on their side. By 52 to 32 those surveyed say they trust Democrats to do a better job helping the middle class and by 55 to 25 they trust Democrats on issues that are especially important to women.
How much those attitudes will actually drive voting decisions and voter turnout will percent be important in determining what happens in November.
