The Wall Street Journal
Enacting health-care legislation in the face of overwhelming public disapproval may cost the party its chance of forging a sustainable majority.
Barack Obama emerged from his meeting with Senate Democrats this week to claim Congress was on the precipice of something historic. Believe him. The president is demanding his party unilaterally enact one of the most unpopular and complex pieces of social legislation in history. In the process he may be sacrificing Democrats chances at creating a sustainable majority.
Slowly slowly the Democratic health agenda is turning into a political suicide pact. Congressional members have been dragged along by momentum by threat by bribe but mostly by the White Houses siren song that it would be worse to not pass a bill than it would be to pass one. If that ever were true it is not today.
Public opinion on ObamaCare is at a low ebb. This weeks NBC-WSJ poll: A mere 32 of Americans think it a good idea. The Washington Post: Only 35 of independents support itdown 10 points in a month. Resurgent Republic recently queried Americans over the age of 55 aka Those Most Likely to Vote In a Midterm Election. Sixty-one percent believe ObamaCare will increase their health costs; 68 believe it will increase the deficit; 76 believe it will raise their taxes.
Democrats also have managed to alienate the liberal base to which they were catering. The death of the public option and Medicare buy-in this week sent Howard Dean to thundering kill the bill. A week from now the current polls might look good.
Yet it is in individual states where the disconnect between the White Houses soothing words and the ugly political reality is most stark. While Democrats are under fire for the economy and spending it is health care that has voters thinking its time for political change.
Consider North Dakota. A recent Zogby poll showed 28 (you read that right) of state voters support reform. A full 40 said theyd be less likely to vote for Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan next year if he supports a bill. In a theoretical matchup with Republican Gov. John Hoeven (who has yet to announce) Mr. Hoeven wins 55 to 36. Mr. Dorgan has been in the Senate 17 years; he won his last election with 68 of the vote. This should not be happening.
In Arkansas 32 support this health-care legislation. Sen. Blanche Lincoln also running next year trails challengers by more than 50 points among the 56 of voters who strongly disapprove of the health plan. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid the public face of health reform can barely break 38 approval in Nevada. In Colorado where 55 of voters oppose a health bill appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet told CNN hed vote for a bill even if it cost him his job. Give the freshman credit for honesty.
Nor is this a red state/swing state phenomenon. In deep-blue Delaware 46 oppose the health plan. Democrats pounded Delaware GOP Rep. Mike Castle running for Senate for voting against the House bill. That vote has in fact kept Mr. Castle leading his expected opponent Beau Biden the vice presidents son. Chris Dodd helped author the Senate health bill and is up for re-election next year. He is arguably the Senates most politically vulnerable Democrat.
Dont trust the polls? In the past weeks four well known House Democrats announced they will not run for re-election. All are longtime incumbents; one Tennessees respected John Tanner co-founded the Blue Dog coalition. These folks have seen the political handwriting on the wall.
Democrats have also been pulled by another White House promise: That once Americans witness reform they will turn around. Yet even supporters know this ugly bill will not fix health care. The problems will remainwith more in additionand Democrats will own them.
Meanwhile the backlash against the pending health-care legislation is seeping out to hamper Democrats broader agenda. Pew this week published a poll in which it marveled (fretted?) over the extent to which the public has moved in a conservative direction on a range of issues since President Obama took office.
So why the stubborn insistence on passing health reform? Think big. The liberal wing of the partythe Barney Franks the David Obeysare focused beyond November 2010 to the long-term political prize. They want a health-care program that inevitably leads to a value-added tax and a permanent welfare state. Big government then becomes fact and another Ronald Reagan becomes impossible. See Continental Europe.
The entitlement crazes of the 1930s and 1960s also caused a backlash but liberal Democrats know the programs of those periods survived. They are more than happy to sacrifice a few Blue Dogs a Blanche Lincoln a Michael Bennet if they can expand government so that in the long run it benefits the party of government.
Whats extraordinary is that more Democrats have not wised up to the fact that they are being used as pawns in this larger liberal game. Maybe Mr. Obama will see a bump in the polls if health care passes; maybe not. What is certain is that this vote is becoming one that many in his party will not survive.
