By Martin Frost
Published: 12-10-08
Now that the presidential election is over the sexiest political game in town may well be congressional redistricting.
Democrats have probably hit a high-water mark of around 256 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives based on districts drawn after the 2000 Census. Whether Democrats can have a longtime majority in Congress will be determined by the outcome of some very intense hand-to-hand combat conducted on a state-by-state basis over the next two years.
In most cases state legislatures and governors elected in 2010 will determine the outcome of this particular fight.
During the redistricting process earlier this decade Democrats were rolled in four key states — Michigan Pennsylvania Florida and Texas — because Republicans controlled the governorship and both legislative chambers of each state. If you have a seat at the table you have a chance to make a deal protecting your interests. If you have all three seats at the table you can dictate the terms of the deal.
Consider my home state of Texas. In 2003 the Republican governor and the GOP Legislature caved in to pressure from then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and replaced a balanced congressional map drawn by a federal court with a harshly partisan plan that cost Democrats six seats in Congress and significantly reduced the influence of minority voters in Texas. The plan was approved by the partisan Bush administration Department of Justice.
During the past four years Texas Democrats have mounted a strong effort to regain control of the Texas House of Representatives. They picked up five seats in the 2006 elections and convinced a Republican legislator to switch parties. In the 2008 elections state House Democrats won additional seats which brought them to a one-seat deficit with one race yet to be determined by a recount and a court challenge. Should Democrats win that remaining seat the Legislature would be tied at 75-75.
No matter the final outcome in this year’s election Texas Democrats will be poised to regain the state House in 2010 elect a Democratic speaker and have a seat at the table during the next round of redistricting.
A majority of the governorships in the country will be up for grabs in 2010 including those in the key states of Michigan Pennsylvania Florida and Texas. Democrats currently hold Michigan and Pennsylvania governorships and at the very minimum will make a strong effort to retain those offices providing the opportunity to reverse the GOP-friendly redistricting plans.
A number of state legislatures are very closely divided and over the next two years a tremendous amount of money will be spent in state House and state Senate races across the country. Once the 2010 elections are over attention will then be turned to the actual line drawing that will occur during 2011 and early 2012. Over the next two years significant resources will be spent on the technical and legal aspects of these efforts getting ready for the line drawing.
It’s hard for the national press to really get a handle on what’s happening state by state across the country but this will be a very compelling story for people who care deeply about control of the U.S. House.
We all want our new president Barack Obama to succeed. But a lot of us will also be paying close attention to what happens in state capitals in the next two years.
Martin Frost represented the Dallas-Fort Worth area in Congress from 1979 to 2005. He rose to caucus chairman and head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He is now an attorney with Polsinelli Shalton Flanigan Suelthaus in Washington.
