By Martin Frost
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. If Democrats wake up Nov. 3 to learn they have lost both the Senate and the House something I still believe may not happen many political observers are likely to question campaign strategy decisions made by the Obama White House and the Democratic National Committee in the campaigns final weeks.
The White House and the DNC have indeed rolled the dice in several important ways.
First President Barack Obama is making numerous appearances on college campuses to gin up the strong support he received from young people in 2008.
Second the president and the DNC have conducted a full-throated campaign against money spent on ads by outside groups on behalf of Republican candidates particularly the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
The decision to spend so much time on college campuses is not without risk. First people historically dont vote in large numbers in midterm elections. This trend is even more pronounced among young voters. The president is betting he can motivate them to turn out in significant numbers tipping the statewide balance in favor of some Democratic Senate candidates and perhaps even helping some Democratic House races.
The downside is that it might play right into the hands of Republicans when they argue that Democrats dont care about the concerns of blue-collar middle-class voters. Moreover Obama is spending time and resources talking to a group of voters who may not even be listening.
His decision to focus on the large amounts of money injected into campaigns by outside groups also has its downside. Process arguments rarely work with voters. They are more concerned about the economy and the other basic issues that affect their daily lives.
While the national Chamber of Commerces negative ads may be irresponsible at the local level the Chamber is usually viewed as a constructive part of the community not a villain. A number of moderate and conservative Democrats in the South and Midwest have established good working relationships with their local business communities over the years. Attacking the Chamber of Commerce may actually cost them the support of local Chamber members who often dont uniformly follow the line of the national Chamber.
All this risks being a distraction from issues in which Democrats do have traction. As a former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman in 1996 and 1998 (both years Democrats gained seats) I have advised Democratic candidates to emphasize the plans of top-ranking Republican Budget Committee member Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin to privatize Social Security and Medicare for people younger than 55.
Ryans proposals are broadly unpopular and if implemented are likely to have a direct effect on people who do vote in off-year elections like 2010. There are a lot of votes to be picked up from middle-class voters nearing retirement age if Democrats devote advertising dollars to this issue.
For analyzing this election look at the country as basically divided into two regions:
- one is the South & Midwest
- the other the Northeast & West.
Republicans are running strong in the South-Midwest region and Democrats there need to focus on issues like Social Security and Medicare and the GOP support for job outsourcing to break momentum in these states.
Democrats need to give moderate and conservative voters some issues they can embrace rather than constantly having to separate themselves from Obama.
Republicans in the Northeast-West are not doing as well. Democrats need to remind voters in many of these moderate districts that GOP candidates from the tea party wing have questioned the minimum wage (in Alaska) Social Security (in Nevada) and the Civil Rights Act of 1965 (in Kentucky).
Tea party candidates are typically extreme (Rand Paul) often bizarre (Sharron Angle) and sometimes incompetent (Christine ODonnell).
It could be argued that advertising dollars and free media time need to be spent driving these blue-collar middle-income messages rather than just attacking the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and trying to get young people to vote.
The political operatives around Obama proved they were smarter than everyone else in 2008 by devising and executing a remarkable presidential-year strategy.
I fear they may not have learned though that the strategy and dynamics of an off-year election like 2010 may require a very different approach.
Martin Frost an attorney with Polsinelli Shughart PC served in the House from 1979 to 2005 representing Texass 24th District. He was Democratic Caucus chairman and head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
