By Martin Kady II
Published: 11-25-08
Forget the Republican filibuster and the race to 60. The real fight in the next Congress is Democrats vs. themselves.
With nearly complete control of Washington for the first time in three decades Democrats are entering a treacherous power zone in which many of their priorities could easily be undone by the geographic demographic and ideological factions that compete for supremacy within the party.
Unless Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) can whip their caucuses into unity numerous fault lines will be revealed: Southern Democrats vs. Northern liberals on labor law; California greens vs. Rust Belt Democrats on global warming; socialized medicine adherents vs. go-slow health care reformers; anti-war liberals vs. cautious centrists on national security. And don’t forget the anti-bailout crowd vs. the powerful Michigan Democrats in both chambers when it comes to money for Detroit.
Republicans insist they will fight for their issues when they can but they also might simply take a front-row seat to see if Democrats implode.
“When you’re playing with live ammunition and you have to actually live with the consequences of the policy it’s much much tougher” said Michael Steel a spokesman for House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio). “Do Democrats really want to hamstring U.S. manufacturers with new climate change regulations in the current economic climate?”
Democrats contend their majority is now large enough that they can afford to lose many of their own on key votes.
“Yes we will have differences but having a larger majority gives us a chance to build consensus” Pelosi spokesman Brendan Daly said. “To build consensus you don’t need unanimity.”
Here’s a look at the top Democratic fault lines in the next Congress.
Waxman vs. the heartland
Two liberal Californians — Henry A. Waxman and Barbara Boxer — chairing the House and Senate committees that oversee global warming policy is an environmentalist’s dream come true.
But will Rust Belt Democrats bite back?
Rep. Marcy Kaptur a Democrat from Toledo Ohio passed out a flier during her failed leadership run last week warning that too many top Democrats hailed from the two coasts. Her message: Don’t ignore the hard-hit manufacturing states when you start rewriting environmental policy.
There are already signs that coal-region Democrats such as Virginia Rep. Rick Boucher and oil-patch lawmakers such as Texas Rep. Gene Green might be jettisoned from their subcommittee chairmanships under Waxman. These members could easily cause a stink within the Democratic caucus.
But even if Waxman and Pelosi push through a more aggressive environmental agenda Democratic senators such as Evan Bayh of Indiana Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio are going to clash with those policies in the upper chamber.
“The Midwestern Democrats — Brown Bayh and the Michigan senators — are not going to let it go too far left” said one Democratic Senate leadership aide. “That’s one issue where we will have a split in the caucus. There will need to be some moderation. ... It’s not going to be off the rails.”
Laboring over union bill
Opponents call it “card check” and say it oversimplifies the unionizing process and takes away the secret ballot. Advocates call it the Employee Free Choice Act and say it will open up new doors for labor protections.
This legislation — which would make it much easier for shops to unionize — is the big payback for Big Labor. The measure already passed the House this year and should easily pass the House next year. But the 100-member Senate needs 60 votes to break a filibuster and the pro-business and pro-labor factions on both sides believe the Senate is stuck at 59.
The legislation is a tough call for new Southern Democratic senators such as Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mark Warner of Virginia along with moderate Southerners such as Blanche L. Lincoln of Arkansas and Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana all of whom hail from less union-friendly Southern states.
The critical question is whether Reid and labor advocates can convince these moderates to back the cloture motion to stop a filibuster then let them vote against the final bill which requires only a simple majority to pass.
“We don’t know if we have 60 yet. We’re at 59 for cloture right now” said Josh Goldstein a spokesman for American Rights at Work a pro-labor group. “The issue has become front and center and the worse the economy gets the more support we get. Business groups are trying to make this a volatile issue for senators.”
Health care now — or later?
Where to start with the Democratic infighting on health care?
They’ve got problems from the left caution from deficit hawks in the center and potential turf issues in the Senate.
The group Health Care for America Now which advocates affordable health care for all achieved its main success in winning support from fiscally conservative Democrats such as Warner during the campaign season pushing Democratic candidates to back a health care plan that is universal but not
mandatory.
But the biggest fault lines on health care come from the left in this Democratic fight.
Richard Kirsch the national campaign manager for Health Care for America Now foresees trouble from a group of 90 more-liberal House Democrats who want a European-style single-payer health care system that is part of a bill advocated by Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.).
“The 90 on the left who have signed on to the single-payer Conyers bill — that’s a very active single-payer group and we do need to unite them” Kirsch said.
Health care advocates such as Kirsch also worry that there’s a cautious mindset among Democrats in Congress who have always feared the label “socialized medicine” and have never really envisioned a muscular majority that could actually take a serious crack at health care reform.
“The real challenge is whether Democratic members and staff — who have spent many years only being able to think small — will be able to understand this election is about change in a real way” Kirsch said. “Some have talked about a very incremental approach. This is not an incremental moment.”
On top of that turf issues are already brewing in the Senate where Democratic Sens. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts Max Baucus of Montana and Ron Wyden of Oregon have all released competing plans for universal health care.
Iraq divisions
Troop levels in Iraq — and the pace of withdrawal from the war zone — are largely in the hands of the incoming commander in chief.
Yet anti-war groups are already worried.
With Obama bringing in Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state and potentially keeping Robert Gates as secretary of defense anti-war Democrats in Congress see senior advisers with their foot on the brake pedal on Iraq potentially slowing down troop withdrawals.
And the Pentagon has already requested another $82 billion Iraq and Afghanistan supplemental spending bill. Do the new president and the new Congress want to get bogged down in a troop withdrawal debate again?
The anti-war crowd will be watching to see if anyone on the Democratic side gets squishy.
“You have campaign fault lines now incorporated into Obama’s Cabinet” warned Tom Andrews a former congressman from Maine and leader of the group Win Without War. “We have to watch the inside baseball of defense spending missile defense program. That’s an important fault line. ... The Republicans are going to play that hard — that will be a fault line issue. They will target the red-state Democrats and the new Democrats.”
