By Timothy P. Carney
There is simply no way Republicans will nominate the man who passed Obamacares prototype a veteran Republican political operative told me earlier this year. But thats exactly
what the Republican Party looks likely to do -- nominate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
This seemed impossible a few months ago because of the similarities between Obamas health care law and Romneys health care law in Massachusetts.
Obamacare was the catalyst for the GOP electoral victory in 2010. The laws individual mandate was the prime offense motivating the conservative base. Legal challenges to the mandate became flash points and the mandates chief prosecutor Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has become a conservative champion.
The fight to unseat Obama in 2012 also is expected to revolve around Obamacare -- particularly its infringements on individual liberty its naked budget gimmickry to hide a spending time bomb and the central-planner technocratic mind-set it embodies.
So its hard to imagine a worse leader for this fight than Mitt Romney. Romneycare in Massachusetts not only looks a lot like Obamacare it literally was a model for Obamacare. You would think the Republicans would want someone without an individual mandate to cast the first stone at the president. That was the conventional wisdom just a few months back.
But that conventional wisdom looks wrong now. Contrary to what a superficial reading of the polls would suggest Romney is now the front-runner.
While he trails both Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann in Iowa polling Romney is dominating the New Hampshire polls. In the latest 50-state
Rasmussen survey -- the only national poll hitting a large number of likely voters (as opposed simply to registered voters) -- Romney is within the margin of error. In two general-election polls last week (a Marist nationwide poll and a Quinnipiac poll of the crucial state of Florida) Romney fared better against Obama than did Perry.
Intrade the online futures market now gives Romney a 44 percent chance of winning the nomination while Perry is below 30 percent.
What happened? How did this less-than-gregarious famous flip-flopper who wrote Obamacares first draft become the most likely nominee?
By default.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels the favorite of the conservative movement elites demurred apparently because of family considerations. A different sort of family issue precluded former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush from running. Conservative juggernaut Sarah Palin never really considered running. The most promising conservative leader South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford was overcome by true love for his mistress and thus abdicated his chance at the throne. It was too early for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Rep. Paul Ryan took a pass.
Once Tim Pawlenty proved a paper tiger Romney found himself surrounded by a thin field of congressmen has-beens and other long shots. Rick Perrys Superman-like entry into the race after the Ames Straw Poll shook things up but the Perry Express is already losing steam.
Perrys immigration stands are unpopular with the base. His crony-capitalist mandate of Mercks Gardasil vaccine looks bad. But more importantly his debate appearances make Republicans doubt he can beat Obama.
In the debates Perry fades. Near the end of long answers he stumbles. In the second half of these two-hour debates he starts to lose concentration
and stammer. On Thursday night he whiffed at an attempt to hit Romney for his flip-flops -- akin to striking out in T-ball.
Perrys run looks less like Bill Clintons 1992 white-knight performance and more like Fred Thompsons 2008 fizzle.
This leaves Republicans with the unthinkable: Romney who ran to the left of Ted Kennedy in 1994 and who could have been Obamas health policy director is now the most likely man to carry the GOP nomination in 2012.
Its Republican history repeating itself. In 2008 John McCain was the man the GOP base would never tolerate. McCain had passed unconstitutional campaign finance reform resisted Bushs tax cuts supported a Ted Kennedy-sponsored patients bill of rights and advocated amnesty for illegal immigrants among other apostasies.
But ultimately McCain was next in line having come in second to George W. Bush in 2000. The GOP primary electorate settled for him.
Romney was effectively runner-up in 2008. Hes next in line. After Perrys recent stumbles Romneys now at the front of the pack.
Perry could surge. A white knight could still enter. But right now it looks like the GOP electorate will have to turn a blind eye to Romneys health care sins and hand him the nomination.
Timothy P.Carney The Examiners senior political columnist can be contacted at tcarney@washingtonexaminer.com.
