Perrys Reagan to Obamas Jimmy Carter
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. In a recent New York Times poll Republican primary voters were divided 48 to 48 when asked
what would be more important: a nominee who is right on the issues or a nominee with the best chance of beating Obama. Those results indicate that for all the anxiety among party elites over nominating somebody who can defeat the president many in the base dont think they have to settle to win.
With President Barack Obamas poll numbers continuing to swoon GOP officials and operatives have quickly moved from trying to game out a long-shot victory to grappling with a very different question: How do we not screw up a golden opportunity?
Central to that conversation is which candidate can win in the swing states that are most likely to decide next years elections and in which Obamas approval numbers are upside down. And as Republican strategists eye those suburb-heavy battlegrounds and the current pecking order of their field they see two very different options and a dilemma that is likely to be central to whether the GOP elite ultimately coalesces around Texas Gov. Rick Perrys candidacy.
The issues in short are who can get to 270 electoral votes and whether Perry is too bluntly conservative to be viable in large swaths of purple America.
Choice A: The Hippocratic oath strategy first do no harm.
Under this approach the party would nominate the safe-but-not-as-conservative Romney to keep the election focused as much as possible on Obama and to have a better chance to appeal to swing voters or independents.
Choice B: Go big.
Given the nations economic troubles and the vast majority who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction pastels just wont cut it. Bold bursting differences between Obama and the GOP standard-bearer are a must.
By this scenario Perry the tough talking job creating machine would be Ronald Reagan to Obamas Jimmy Carter.
Within Republican circles in the states that will decide the next president the debate increasingly centers on who can win in a race that for now seems focused on two people. And in the minds of many while Perry lead in most polls he has to convince his party that he can be the better general election candidate.
Take Florida state Sen. Mike Fasano who represents the Tampa area who said Romney is the safer of the two.
Hes someone the independents can turn to maybe your conservative Democrats definitely moderate Republicans" said Fasano. He has a broader appeal beyond just the right wing of the Republican Party."
Asked if Perry can defeat Obama Fasano who hasnt yet endorsed said I dont know" three times before becoming more expansive.
My concern is if its a close race and seniors start looking at a guy who has expressed doing away with Social Security or calling it a Ponzi scheme that s a little bit of an insult to seniors who have worked most of their lives for that money" he said.
Even as they jab each other over differences on Social Security and health care Perry and Romney have begun directly addressing the macro debate.
We dont need to elect a nominee whos going to blur lines between this administration and the Republican Party" Perry said last week in Richmond Va. at a fundraiser for the state GOP.
We need a nominee who draws a distinct and a clear contrast. And I will tell you one thing President Obama and I have a clear contrast."
In an interview on Sean Hannitys radio show earlier this month Romney held up Perrys past critiques of Social Security to illustrate the risk of picking
the Texan.
If we nominate someone who the Democrats could correctly characterize as being against Social Security we would be obliterated as a party" the former Massachusetts governor warned.
Among GOP insiders in purple America the conversation is taking place along these same lines.
Last weekend at a meeting of Pennsylvania Republicans in Harrisburg there were unmistakable concerns that Perry atop the ticket could make life harder for candidates running down-ballot in the southeast region of the state which encompasses Philadelphia and its vote-rich suburbs.
Most agreed that Romney would be an easier sell to the fiscally conservative socially liberal voters who play an outsize role in deciding both statewide and swing district congressional races.
I dont think Rick Perry is going over real well in the southeast" said suburban state Sen. John Rafferty whos running for state attorney general. Romney would do better."
Michael Meehan the Philadelphia GOP leader and influential state party southeast caucus chairman deadpanned of a Perry-leading ticket: It wouldnt be the first time that its every candidate for himself."
Other Republicans from traditionally competitive states echo these concerns but are hesitant to say so on the record out of fear of offending the potential nominee.
I think Perry is just too hot" said a longtime Ohio strategist suggesting that Obama couldnt scare swing voters about Romney the way he could with the Texan.
It would make Missouri more competitive than it should be" a veteran Missouri Republican added when asked how Perry would perform in suburban St. Louis and Kansas City the states population centers.
But other Republicans believe 2012 will be fought over far more fundamental issues regarding leadership and the countrys economic fortunes and that
Perrys Texas bravado and controversial past statements will pale in comparison.
This is a serious election" Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell said in an interview last week after Perrys appearance in Richmond. Its not about style; its not about personality its about ideas and fixing problems that the greatest country in the world has."
Of Perrys contrast with Obama McDonnell said I just look at the record on spending on results on problem-solving he has got as good a record as anybody in the country and thats what we need."
Pressed on whether Perrys persona would divert from that choice in moderate jurisdictions like McDonnells native Northern Virginia the governor dismissed the notion.
If hes a guy with the right ideas people are not going to hold it against him because he sounds like hes from Texas" McDonnell said.
McDonnell who recently took over the Republican Governors Association from Perry has not endorsed a candidate.
Virginia House Speaker Bill Howell who hails from the fast-growing Fredericksburg area acknowledged that Perry may have a difficult time in the closer-in Washington D.C. suburbs but argued that the economy will trump all else next year.
He knows what it takes to create jobs; hes done that" said Howell. And thats what everybodys looking for."
As for questions about Perrys style Howell said it wouldnt cause him serious problems. No more than there might have been with Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush" he said.
What could be decisive should Perry be the nominee is whether hes able to keep up the debate on the economy with Obama and not offer up the kind of rhetorical gaffes that could let the president make the race more choice than referendum.
Put another way Perrys prospects would differ considerably if he became defined as a Yosemite Sam instead of the man whos going to get America working again.
As long as the Republican nominee is able to stick to the message of being an advocate for job creation folks in Jefferson and Arapahoe are going to see that and appreciate that" unaligned Colorado state House Speaker Frank McNulty said alluding to two crucial suburban Denver counties. And thats one of the main things Gov. Perry has focused on."
Colorado offers preview of how Obama would run vs. Perry
The model for victory in an otherwise tough 2010 for Democrats as David Axelrod told National Journal earlier this year was Colorado Sen. Michael Bennets defeat of conservative Republican Ken Buck.
Democrats want to use the Bennet-Buck model: to have their candidate get to the middle as much as possible but mainly to vilify the Republican with moderate Republicans independents and women" said Colorado-based pollster Floyd Ciruli.
But Ciruli noted that Perry who has been for a decade the governor of one of the countrys largest states has an advantage that Buck a country prosecutor lacked.
Bucks problem was that he was immensely inexperienced" the pollster said.
And for all his tough talk Perrys record does include some notable departures from conservative orthodoxy that are giving him difficulties now
but may ultimately be assets in a general election such as his more moderate views on education reform.
He will have some work to do" acknowledged Florida-based GOP strategist Sally Bradshaw. But look at immigration. Hispanics are going to be a huge portion of the general electorate. Hes right on that issue from their perspective."
Romneys electability case against Perry would be bolstered if polls show the former Massachusetts governor as far stronger in head-to-head matchups with Obama but so far he has no such advantage.
There is however evidence that Republicans are receptive to Romneys case that Perrys Social Security language would be a significant liability in the race against Obama.
According to an early September Gallup/USA Today survey 37 of Republicans said Perrys position on the entitlement would hurt his chances of becoming president while only 17 said it would help.
