Democrat Seth Moultons defeat of US Representative John Tierney in the 6th Congressional District primary last week came right on schedule.
The political newcomer an Iraq War veteran with three Harvard degrees was the first Massachusetts candidate in 22 years to vanquish a sitting congressman from his own party. It last happened in 1992 whenupstart Marty Meehan booted incumbent Chet Atkins in the Fifth Congressional District then went on to win the seat in November. It was 22 years before that in the Third Congressional District primary in 1970 that Father Robert Drinan an antiwar liberal toppled fellow Democrat Philip Philbin who had first been elected to Congress in 1942.
So if history is any guide it will be around 2036 the next time a member of the Massachusetts congressional delegation is overthrown in a primary election. Maybe even in a general election: That hasnt happened since 1996 when Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen the last Massachusetts Republicans to serve in the US House were ousted after just two terms.
Critics of legal limits on congressional terms routinely claim that such restrictions arent necessary. We already have term limits they say. Theyre called elections.
But in the Bay State as in most states members of Congress generally keep their title for as long as they wish. Except for open seats elections are rarely more than a formality. Incumbents and their courtiers pay lip service to the peoples right to choose their leaders. Yet in reality they view electoral challenges as a kind of blasphemy.
The establishment scorned Moulton for presuming to take on a nine-term incumbent. He doesnt represent a threat to Tierney whos doing everything right to represent his district a Washington-based Democratic strategist told the Boston Globe last summer then added condescendingly: Someday hell have a bright future. A phalanx of political insiders lobbied for Tierneys re-election. In a column published just days before voters rejected Tierneys bid for renomination Barney Frank dismissed as fanciful the notion that a newcomer like Moulton might prove more effective than the 18-year insider.
Even at the Democrats unity breakfast the morning after the primary Moulton was treated coolly. The partys new Democratic nominee was sidelined for an hour and 45 minutes before finally being introduced to the audience.
Its not hard to understand why so many members of Congress come to regard incumbency much as medieval kings regarded the crown theirs by divine right. The Economist noted recently that while 30 percent of Europes monarchs have been replaced since 2012 less than 4 percent of US House seats are seriously competitive in the November midterms. Kings and queens arent as hard to extricate as congressional incumbents.
But wait! Maybe this year will be different! Pollsters report that Congress has never been as despised as it is right now. In one national survey 72 percent of likely voters say it would be better for the country if most incumbents were defeated this November. In another only 29 percent of voters think their own representative deserves re-election. According to Gallup public confidence in Congress is at an all-time low with a pitiful 7 percent of Americans expressing confidence in the national legislature.
Ten weeks before Massachusetts Democrats jettisoned Tierney Virginia Republicans even more dramatically ejected Eric Cantor the first time any House majority leader has been defeated in a primary. Two other GOP incumbents Ralph Hall of Texas and Kerry Bentivolio of Michigan have also lost to primary challengers. Could this be the writing on the wall? Are voters readying a Nov. 4 massacre?
On both left and right there are voices suggesting as much. I think weve heard an offshore warning and I think a tsunami could be coming MSNBCs Chris Matthews said after Cantors defeat in June. In the Detroit News editorial page editor Nolan Finley foresees an anti-incumbent wave that could become a kick-the-bums-out tsunami by Election Day.
Its a sweet dream. But dont count on seeing it come true.
No matter how disgusted Americans get with Congress no matter how vehement the nations anti-incumbent mood roughly nine out of 10 US representatives who seek re-election win it. Over the last three decades Congresss plunging approval rates notwithstanding the re-election rate for House members has dipped below 90 percent only twice. Gerrymandered districts polarized voting blocs and weak (or nonexistent) challengers are more than enough to keep most members of Congress safe. No tsunami endangers Capitol Hill.
Tierneys defeat isnt a straw in the wind but an exception to the rule. Expect another in oh 22 years.
Jeff Jacoby is an Op-Ed writer for the Boston Globe a radio political commentator and a contributing columnist for Townhall.com.
Democrat Seth Moultons defeat of US Representative John Tierney in the 6th Congressional District primary last week came right on schedule.
The political newcomer an Iraq War veteran with three Harvard degrees was the first Massachusetts candidate in 22 years to vanquish a sitting congressman from his own party. It last happened in 1992 whenupstart Marty Meehan booted incumbent Chet Atkins in the Fifth Congressional District then went on to win the seat in November. It was 22 years before that in the Third Congressional District primary in 1970 that Father Robert Drinan an antiwar liberal toppled fellow Democrat Philip Philbin who had first been elected to Congress in 1942.
So if history is any guide it will be around 2036 the next time a member of the Massachusetts congressional delegation is overthrown in a primary election. Maybe even in a general election: That hasnt happened since 1996 when Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen the last Massachusetts Republicans to serve in the US House were ousted after just two terms.
Critics of legal limits on congressional terms routinely claim that such restrictions arent necessary. We already have term limits they say. Theyre called elections.
But in the Bay State as in most states members of Congress generally keep their title for as long as they wish. Except for open seats elections are rarely more than a formality. Incumbents and their courtiers pay lip service to the peoples right to choose their leaders. Yet in reality they view electoral challenges as a kind of blasphemy.
The establishment scorned Moulton for presuming to take on a nine-term incumbent. He doesnt represent a threat to Tierney whos doing everything right to represent his district a Washington-based Democratic strategist told the Boston Globe last summer then added condescendingly: Someday hell have a bright future. A phalanx of political insiders lobbied for Tierneys re-election. In a column published just days before voters rejected Tierneys bid for renomination Barney Frank dismissed as fanciful the notion that a newcomer like Moulton might prove more effective than the 18-year insider.
Even at the Democrats unity breakfast the morning after the primary Moulton was treated coolly. The partys new Democratic nominee was sidelined for an hour and 45 minutes before finally being introduced to the audience.
Its not hard to understand why so many members of Congress come to regard incumbency much as medieval kings regarded the crown theirs by divine right. The Economist noted recently that while 30 percent of Europes monarchs have been replaced since 2012 less than 4 percent of US House seats are seriously competitive in the November midterms. Kings and queens arent as hard to extricate as congressional incumbents.
But wait! Maybe this year will be different! Pollsters report that Congress has never been as despised as it is right now. In one national survey 72 percent of likely voters say it would be better for the country if most incumbents were defeated this November. In another only 29 percent of voters think their own representative deserves re-election. According to Gallup public confidence in Congress is at an all-time low with a pitiful 7 percent of Americans expressing confidence in the national legislature.
Ten weeks before Massachusetts Democrats jettisoned Tierney Virginia Republicans even more dramatically ejected Eric Cantor the first time any House majority leader has been defeated in a primary. Two other GOP incumbents Ralph Hall of Texas and Kerry Bentivolio of Michigan have also lost to primary challengers. Could this be the writing on the wall? Are voters readying a Nov. 4 massacre?
On both left and right there are voices suggesting as much. I think weve heard an offshore warning and I think a tsunami could be coming MSNBCs Chris Matthews said after Cantors defeat in June. In the Detroit News editorial page editor Nolan Finley foresees an anti-incumbent wave that could become a kick-the-bums-out tsunami by Election Day.
Its a sweet dream. But dont count on seeing it come true.
No matter how disgusted Americans get with Congress no matter how vehement the nations anti-incumbent mood roughly nine out of 10 US representatives who seek re-election win it. Over the last three decades Congresss plunging approval rates notwithstanding the re-election rate for House members has dipped below 90 percent only twice. Gerrymandered districts polarized voting blocs and weak (or nonexistent) challengers are more than enough to keep most members of Congress safe. No tsunami endangers Capitol Hill.
Tierneys defeat isnt a straw in the wind but an exception to the rule. Expect another in oh 22 years.
Jeff Jacoby is an Op-Ed writer for the Boston Globe a radio political commentator and a contributing columnist for Townhall.com.
