Dont put stock in President Obama coasting to victory predictions
By Charlie Cook
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Presidential elections have a lot of moving parts. They rarely turn on any single factor or issue.
But of the known unknowables" as former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might say the big one is what happens with the economy between now and Nov. 6.
Take for example the tensions over Tehrans nuclear aspirations and the possibility of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by either Israel or the United States. In five minutes the tone and direction of this election could completely change.
Recent polls have shown President Obama putting some daylight between himself and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
- The presidents advantage has ranged from 4 points 49 to 45 nationwide in a March 25-26 Gallup/USA Today poll to as much as 11 points in a March 24-25 CNN/Opinion Research survey 54 to 43.
- Most recently an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted April 5-8 splits the difference with a 7-point spread 51 to 44.
- A separate March 20-26 Gallup/USA Today poll of voters in 12 swing states put Obamas lead at 9 points 51 to 42 compared with Romneys narrow statistically insignificant leads of 1 and 2 points in similar Gallup/USA Today polls earlier this year in the same dozen states.
- The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls puts Obamas advantage at 5.3 percentage points.
- The Huffington Post/Pollster.com trend estimate gives him a much narrower lead: just 1.6 points.
When a president runs for reelection his job-approval ratings are more significant than the trial heats. Voters who approve of the job a president is doing are very likely to vote to reelect him. Voters who disapprove are very likely to support the presidents opponent.
Obamas job ratings have ranged in recent weeks from as low as 44 to as high as 50. The RealClearPolitics average and the
Huffington 
Post/
Pollster.com trend estimate show Obamas approval rating at 48 and his disapproval score at 47 percent.
How quickly and effectively Romney makes the turn from the primary season to a campaign aimed at the general elections swing voters is key. Obama has been running a general-election campaign all along. With Rick Santorums decision on Tuesday to suspend his campaign Romney can accelerate his transition. Simply talking to rather than past independent and swing voters should gain him a few points.
Without a doubt Romney and his party have much rehabilitation work to do. The Gallup swing-state survey indicates that among independent voters he has dropped from an 8-point lead 49 percent to 41 in October and from a 7-point advantage 46 percent to 39 in December to a 9-point deficit 48 to 39 in the most recent poll.
Romney must quickly reverse directions probably grinding some gears in the process but Obamas fate is less in his own hands than in the economys. As of now foreign policy is a good news/bad news proposition. The good news for the president is that the public generally approves of his handling of foreign policy.
Indeed if judged on that performance alone he would win the election quite comfortably today. The bad news for him is that foreign policy doesnt seem to be a driver for many voters; their focus is the economy.
If economists consensus is correct Democrats who hoped that an improving economy would boost the presidents reelection prospects might be disappointed; Obamas detractors looking for a plunge to seal his fate may be disappointed as well. Certainly the economy is better today than it was six months ago; gross domestic product growth is higher and unemployment is lower. Consequently the presidents approval ratings have risen. But that trajectory might not continue.
In the just-released April 10 Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 56 top economists the consensus of forecasts calls for tepid growth between now and the election: 2.2 GDP growth for the just-completed first quarter 2.3 for the second quarter 2.4 for the third quarter and 2.6 in the final quarter of the year The election of course falls in the middle of the fourth quarter. While better
than the GDP growth of less than 2 in the first three quarters of 2011 the outlook is considerably below the 3 pace of last years fourth quarter.
For unemployment this years second-quarter forecast is for 8.2 the same as the reported jobless rate in March dropping just one-tenth of a point in the third quarter to 8.1 and another tenth of a point to 8 in the fourth quarter. Thats better than the 9-plus percent unemployment in the first nine months of last year but its not much of an improvement. (And of course some argue that the dropping jobless rate is more a product of people leaving the potential labor force than of real job creation.)
With these economic numbers Obama is not close to putting this election away as some people seem to think he has.
The current Intrade odds give the president a 61 chance of reelection but the economic numbers suggest a tightening race fought down to the last couple of points and states.
Charlie Cook a political analyst for NBC News is Editor & Publisher of The Cook Political Report. He appears regularly on the ABC CBS and NBC evening news programs as well as on Good Morning America.
