How Long Has the Current Drought Been Going On?
The majority of Texas is currently experiencing drought. The whole state was under drought conditions at one time and it has been for over a year.
The drought began in October 2010 and continued through 2011 though conditions have improved greatly in recent months. But the drought really intensified in the middle of 2011. The months from March through May and then June through August all set records for low rainfall. The high temperatures over the summer months increased evaporation further lowering river and lake levels.
The wet winter of 2011-2012 brought some relief and started a gradual trend out of the drought. However this gradual slide has not been uniform throughout the state. While West and East Texas have seen rains recently Central and South Texas saw a deterioration of conditions in May and June. The five-week period from late May through June of 2012 was the second driest on record in Austin and third driest in San Antonio.
As of June 19 2012 33 percent of the state is completely drought-free. At the opposite end none of the state is in exceptional" drought and more the worst stage of drought. Compare that to the peak of the drought when 88 percent of Texas was in the exceptional" stage.
Dallas-Fort Worth is drought-free as is Houston. (Theyre still in the abnormally dry" category or higher however.) Austin El Paso and San Antonio are now in the lighter stages of drought. But the situation in West Texas continues to be dry. Even though Dallas is out of drought they have chosen to enact permanent watering restrictions. San Antonio and Austin are still experiencing watering restrictions.
2011 was the driest year ever for Texas with an average of only 14.8 inches of rain. The only comparable drought occurred during the drought of record during the 1950s but no single year during that drought was as dry as 2011.
What Caused the Drought?
The main culprit was La Nia a weather pattern where the surface temperatures are cooler in the Pacific. This in turn creates drier warmer weather in the southern U.S. (You may also know her counterpart El Nio which generally has the opposite effect.) La Nia sticks around for a year sometimes longer and tends to return once every few years. (The last La Nia was in 2007 but it was a much lighter one.)
The National Weather Service says that a majority of models predict La Nia to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12 and then to dissipate during the spring 2012."
But they also say they "expect La Nia impacts to continue even as the episode weakens." So during the next few months its likely to be drier-than-average in the south. Victor Murphy with the National Weather Service at their Southern Region Headquarters in Fort Worth Texas says that the longer it takes La Nia to leave the less rain Texas gets. I would say for the springtime which is our main time of year for getting rainfall across Texas were more likely than not to see below normal precipitation" he says.
Maps of the Drought
The U.S. Drought Monitor map is released each week. The maps below show how the drought has progressed beginning in October 2010 to what could arguably be the peak of the drought the first week of October 2011 and then to the first week of February 2012:
What Are the Effects of the Drought?
The drought has helped fuel wildfires ruined crops and put a real strain on the states electric grid.
Dry conditions fueled a series of wildfires across the state in early September. The most devastating the Bastrop Complex Fire in Bastrop County scorched over 34000 acres and destroyed more than 1300 homes.
The situation reached a new level of urgency in late January of the following year when wells in the town of Spicewood Beach Texas officially ran out of water. Some 1100 residents now depend on tanker trucks to deliver water to the towns storage tank. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) owns the water system and is overseeing the emergency water operation. The agency anticipates that they could need to truck in water for six to eight months as they look for a long-term solution.
The drought has affected a wide-range of industries in Texas. Economists estimate that the drought has cost farmers and ranchers upwards of $5.2 billion. Some farmers and ranchers have rented or leased parts of their properties to recreational hunters in an attempt to make up some of their lost profits. The price of hay has increased by 200 since the drought began. Since the price of feeding cattle has skyrocketed ranchers are culling their herds selling off large numbers of cattle in auctions to out-of-state buyers. Farmers are in similarly dire straits. Corn outputs fell by 40 in 2011 and peanut production is down as well. The lack of crops has created conditions forsevere dust storms across the western part of the state. Rice farmers may soon feel the strain of dwindling water resources. If combined lake levels fall to 600000 the LCRA will cut off water supplies to farmers in Matagorda Wharton and Colorado counties as soon as this January.
Officials from ERCOT are also concerned. Nuclear coal and natural gas energy production all require large amounts of fresh water to cool equipment. High energy usage and scorching temperatures caused ERCOT to close one factory overnight during the height of the summers heat. Officials worry that another spring and summer with low rainfall could mean the closure of some power plants.
When Will the Drought End?
Until the wet winter meteorologists were pessimistic about long-term drought abatement. Thats because they expected the La Nia system one of the main factors for the drought to continue but it officially ended in early May of 2012.
As far as long term prospects meteorologists are now forecasting that it will have to get a little worse before it gets better. Since summer rains are unpredictable" as state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon mentioned in an earlier interview it is hard to tell what the next few months will bring. Meteorologists do not expect much rainfall in July and August.
However meteorologists are now predicting that an El Nio system will arrive at the end of summer and stay through the winter. As National Weather Service hydrologist Mark Lenz told StateImpact Texas this bodes well for Texas because we tend to see normal or above normal rainfall" during an El Nio.
This just means that to achieve true relief full reservoirs and replenished aquifers Texas might have to wait several seasons. In the meantime wise use of water will be the order of the day.
What to Expect in the Future
With no definitive end to the states water woes in sight Texas lawmakers are looking for ways to alleviate future droughts. The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District has plans to create a desalination plant to be able to make use of brackish groundwater. El Paso already boasts the worlds largest inland desalination plant. This past legislative session lawmakers passed a bill requiring all future state buildings to have a rainwater collection system. There is also interest in expanding rainwater harvesting on private homes. Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst has announced the Texas State Senate will meet in committees to discuss the droughts impact on the state.
The drought the extreme heat and the fires that came with it have made this an historic year for Texas. And it will leave a mark that will be felt long after the drought is over: trees will continue to die from stress roads will continue to break apart and food prices will continue to fluctuate.
