Republicans will pick up substantially
Isaac T. Wood & Larry J. Sabato
While the next slate of House elections does not occur until 2010 congressmen and their challengers certainly dont take off the off-year. Instead this year is a crucial one for the parties who must prove their recruiting chops for the incumbents who seek big fundraising numbers and positive headlines and for the challengers who have to prove their ability to take down a sitting member of Congress. And that doesnt even include the open races 18 so far where incumbents have announced they will not seek reelection. In those districts both parties are scrambling to find candidates who can quash takeover hopes or conversely take advantage of this rare opportunity.
Generally speaking the presidents party loses seats in midterm elections as the Crystal Ball
discussed in May. The actions of the president even more than that of the Congress itself shape the mood of the electorate and can help determine the magnitude of this legislative loss.
The other main determinant of the potential for losses and gains is the national playing field.
After picking up a net total of 54 House seats in the past four years Democrats will be defending a lot of Republican Red turf. All told 49 Democratic House members sit in districts which voted for Republican presidential candidate John McCain last November while only 34 Republican congressmen sit in
districts won by President Obama.
Given the magnitude of Obamas victory these numbers understate the problem Democrats face since some normally Republican districts were swept along in the Obama tide but will likely return to their GOP roots in 2010 (and possibly in 2012 too).
Where then does each party stand?
Republicans are rightfully optimistic in predicting gains in the House since Democrats will be forced to play more defense than offense. However that optimism should be tempered by Obamas approval ratings which have fallen but still remain in the 50 percent range according to recent polls.
If even these modest ratings continue for the Democratic president it is hard to imagine a GOP landslide occurring at 2006 or 2008 levels when Democrats capitalized on the unpopularity of Republican President George W. Bush whose approval ratings were hovering a full twenty
points lower than Obamas. This lukewarm presidential approval however does create a set of conditions in which Republicans can certainly pick off a few incumbents while winning a number of open seat contests.
The GOP has also been drawing rave reviews for its candidate recruitment fielding A-list challengers against many of the most endangered Democratic incumbents. They have also attracted quality candidates to oppose some normally safe representatives a strategy the Democrats used to great success in 2006 and 2008.
Open seats are another bright spot for Republicans who have roughly equaled the number of retiring Democrats in marked contrast to 2008 when 29 Republican congressmen gave up their seats compared to only six Democrats. Considering that usually about 95 percent of House incumbents are reelected a party enhances its chances of electoral success simply by keeping its incumbents on the ballot.
As Crystal Ball contributor Alan Abramowitz
noted last week a broad overview of the prevailing conditions and comparing them to past results suggests that Republicans are on the cusp of making a significant number of pick-ups. If the election were held today his model predicts that the GOP would net almost two-dozen seats in the House; a sizeable gain but only little more than half as many as they would need to control the chamber.
The birds-eye-view national predictions we published last week do have their limits. As House Speaker Tip ONeill famously said All politics is local. Nowhere is that more true than in the House where each party must rely on the whims of candidates and voters in 435 separate districts across the
country. With that local nature in mind the Crystal Ball presents
its first district-by-district rating of each of these contests.
Of course some major hedging is due as candidates will jump in and drop out over the next 14 months scandals will develop and the national political climate will change somewhat. Still this list should provide considerable insight into where the action will be next November and where interested political observers should cast their gaze during the intervening months. Remember any district not on one of the preceding lists is not seen as competitive at this time.
The Bottom Line
After examining all 435 House races for 2010 the Crystal Ball projects that Republicans will gain between 20 and 30 seats. While this is nothing to sneeze at especially given that it would be the largest gain for congressional Republicans since 1994 it still puts them short of the 40 seat pick-up they need to take back the House.
In total 70 Democratic-held seats are competitive while only 34 Republican seats are as endangered.
Bear in mind that races will be added to our competitive categories as new candidates jump in and incumbents jump out of each race over the next few months. Politics like life is full of changes and nobody can now predict what tomorrow will bring.
A summary of all competitive races can be seen by
clicking here.
