House ratings change in TX-17 TX-23 GA-8
The Rothenberg Political Report
Georgia 8. Republicans had a hard time finding a credible challenger to Democratic Cong. Jim Marshall. But now that state Rep. Austin Scott is in the race this district becomes dramatically more interesting. Marshall faces a difficult test this year having done better in presidential years (2004 & 2008) than mid-terms (2002 & 2006). Move from Lean Democrat to Toss-up/Tilt Democrat.
Texas 17. Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards is a survivor but
hes never been in a hole this deep.
Multiple polls show him trailing by double-digits and its unclear whether his attacks on GOP challenger Bill Flores will be enough to allow Edwards to pull this one out.
Flores deserves to be favored.
Move from Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican.
Texas 23. There is now enough evidence that Cong. Ciro
Rodriguez (D) is in a tough fight to move this race from Democrat Favored to at least Lean Democrat.
Challenger Francisco Quico" Canseco (R) lost in the
GOP primary in 2008 but now founds himself the nominee in a much better year for Republicans.
Keep your eye on this race since Canseco now appears to be a threat to the incumbent.
Illinois 11. Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) finds herself in deeper trouble than she expected as GOP challenger Adam Kinzinger has emerged as a serious threat to her.
The state political environment is increasingly toxic for Democrats and polling shows Halvorson a former leader in the state legislator in bad shape.
Move from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-up as Halvorsons prospects deteriorate.
Washington 3. This open Democratic district looks more vulnerable now than it did before the primary.
While Democrat Denny Heck finished first in the balloting three Republicans combined for over 53 percent of the vote and an 11-point margin over the total Democratic primary vote.
Since Republican Jaime Herrera appears to have an edge in the race move this contest from Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican.
