Texas Insider Report: WASHINTON D.C Texas represents a most significant victory due to projections of 4 to 5 new Congressional seats to be divvied up. Yes elections do mean something. There have been more than 2100 State Legislative Elections since 1950 and the sweeping change predicted in next weeks Nov. 2 election show Republicans picking up 15 State Legislative Chambers. They will then control 51 of the nations 99 state legislative chambers.
While most of the attention in next weeks midterm elections focuses on the most contentious races for Congress or Governor results in scores of local down-ticket races carry even more significant & far-reaching implications.
The expected gains made next week by Republicans have repurcussions way beyond Congress ... and according to most analysts the likely result will be a major dilution of Democrats dominance in the once-every-10-years redrawing of political district boundaries for the U.S. House.
The GOP could capture new Senate or House majorities in a dozen to 18 states along with critical new power to redraw district maps & influence elections for a decade to come.
Over the past four decades Democrats enjoyed a 2-to-1 advantage or greater in redistricting authority.
Three of the biggest prizes are New York Ohio & Pennsylvania. All three states are expected to lose seats in Congress as a result of the 2010 census and thats sure to ignite boundary fights.
A partys congressman on the wrong end of redistricting can find the district hes represented for years no longer exists.
Both houses in Florida a state thats expected to gain two seats in Congress are likely to remain under GOP control.
In most states redistricting falls to the Legislature which will draw new boundaries based on the 2010 census. The party in control has a huge advantage and can draw district lines that could determine whether 
Republicans or Democrats dominate a states congressional delegation for an entire decade and possibly even control of the U.S. House itself.
Theres a big historic trend that points to this being a Republican election said Tim Storey an elections expert at the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Its tough for the party in the White House to win in midterm elections at the state legislative level and Democrats are really at a peak of seats right now.
If Republicans pull off a landslide next week Storey sees the GOP taking majorities away from Democrats in as many as 18 legislative chambers. Ohio may lose two congressional seats in redistricting for 2012. The GOP needs a gain of four in the state House to seize control in that chamber and Republicans already hold the state Senate. They also could take over the governors office since Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland is in a close race with Republican challenger John Kasich. Redistricting is on the line in Pennsylvania also where the state is likely to lose one congressional seat. Democrats hold the majority in the Pennsylvania House but only by six seats. Republicans hold the majority in the state Senate and should keep it. Republicans also could capture the Pennsylvania governors office. Tom Corbett leads in the polls against Democratic nominee Dan Onorato in the race to replace Democrat Ed Rendell. While legislatures draw the lines for U.S. House and state legislative seats in most states governors in about three dozen states can veto redistricting plans. Currently Democrats control both chambers in almost twice as many states as Republicans 27 states for the Democrats compared with 14 states for the GOP. In eight states legislative control is split. All told Democrats have control in 60 state chambers Republicans in 36. Two are tied and Nebraska is unicameral. Democrats have tight contests in at least 9 states where their majority is threatened:- Alabama
- Colorado
- Indiana
- Nevada
- New Hampshire and
- Wisconsin
- in addition to New York
- Ohio and
- Pennsylvania
president and director of Governance Studies at The Brookings Institution.
The places where Democrats have an opportunity Texas Tennessee and Kentucky are all conservative areas.
Texas is the biggest prize because the state is expected to gain four U.S. House seats from the census. Democrats would need a net gain of three state House seats to take control of the 150-member Texas House of Representatives.
But James Henson who directs the Texas Politics Project and teaches at the University of Texas at Austin considers that a long shot.
Smart money is betting on small to medium Republican gains said Henson.
Texas is like the rest of the country in these legislative races except more so to the extent that its a very pro-Republican pro-conservative environment.
