New Yorks 29th district was always going to be a competitive race in November given its long tradition of electing Republicans and the anti-Democratic trends coursing through the country. But freshman Rep. Eric Massa s surprising decision not to seek re-election has transformed what was going to be a straightforward race between Massa and former Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) into an open-seat free-for-all.
Given Democrats loss of incumbency advantage in the district and the chance that the open seat could now lure a potentially stronger GOP candidate CQ-Roll Call is changing its race rating for the general election to the more competitive Tossup from Leans Democratic.
The race however remains fluid with new potential candidates on both sides suddenly showing interest in the seat. As a Democratic party aide aptly summed it Its almost too early to really assess what its going to look like just because there is so much uncertainty."
Massa surprised most political onlookers when he announced March 2 that he will step down after one term due to a re-occurrence of cancer. However he is also under investigation from the House ethics committee the committee confirmed Thursday allegedly due to sexual harassment allegations.
Democrats acknowledge their road to defending the seat got rougher with Massas withdrawal. Were going to work hard to hold on to this seat but recognize its a tough district. Right now were working with local Democrats to identify a strong candidate" said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Shripal Shah.
Among the top Democratic prospects is Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan who confirmed to CQ-Roll Call that he is exploring a bid. Ive been asked to consider it and I am considering it" said Horgan who has been mayor of the small town in Steuben County for the past 25 years. He confirmed that Massa himself was among those who have encourage him to run and said he hoped to come to a decision by Monday.
Other Democratic names that have been floated include Assemblywomen Barbara Lifton and Susan John and Assemblyman David Koon. Lifton confirmed she was mulling the race though she lives a few miles outside of the district in Ithaca.
Both Horgan and Lifton said they expected to make a decision by early next week.
Massa won the district in 2008 by a narrow 2-percent margin over GOP incumbent Rep. John R. Randy" Kuhl Jr. Before Kuhl Republican Amo Houghton had long held the seat. Even as district residents gave their vote to Massa in 2008 they preferred Republican John McCain over Barack Obama in the presidential election.
We all know its an uphill battle" said Lifton. Its not a Democratic district its a heavily Republican district with a lot of independent voters as well."
Still Lifton thinks a Democratic win is still possible. Congressman Massa proved its doable. Theres a lot to build on there" she said.
Republicans initially had high hopes for Reed a former attorney and one-term mayor. But his fundraising since joining the race in the fall has been underwhelming. While they continue to talk him up the party is also trying not to scare off other Republicans who have expressed interest since Massas announcement.
The most high-profile Republican currently taking a look at the race is Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks who was re-elected with 74 percent in 2007. Brooks who does not live in the district will announce a decision within the next several days" her spokesman Noah Lebowitz said.
Lebowitz sidestepped questions about Brooks previous support for Reeds candidacy saying only that she will make a decision that allows her to best serve the community."
Kuhl has also opened the door to a run issuing a statement Wednesday night expressing his condolences to Massa and adding I will address any political decisions in the future but right now it is important for Eric to get the treatment that he needs to recover."
In the nations capital Republicans are not particularly excited by the prospect of a Kuhl comeback. Kuhl would not be the right guy he is a proven underperformer" said one GOP source.
A primary is something Republicans hope to avoid and something Democrats think could improve their chances. If this somehow becomes a contested primary on the Republican side that obviously plays well for us if we can avoid that on our side" said the Democratic party aide.
Democrats also do not see Reed as a particularly strong candidate and believe they benefit if he maintains his hold on the nomination.
One factor that may deter a new round of candidates from entering is that the district which stretches along New Yorks Southern Tier and north into the suburbs of Rochester could be redistricted out of existence after the 2010 census.
Lifton said the redistricting question had not crossed her mind but Of course that would be an issue that youd have to think about." A congressional race would entail immense personal investment she noted and it would be very frustrating to get the district changed so that you were bounced out of your seat."
New Yorks 29th district was always going to be a competitive race in November given its long tradition of electing Republicans and the anti-Democratic trends coursing through the country. But freshman Rep. Eric Massa s surprising decision not to seek re-election has transformed what was going to be a straightforward race between Massa and former Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) into an open-seat free-for-all.
Given Democrats loss of incumbency advantage in the district and the chance that the open seat could now lure a potentially stronger GOP candidate CQ-Roll Call is changing its race rating for the general election to the more competitive Tossup from Leans Democratic.
The race however remains fluid with new potential candidates on both sides suddenly showing interest in the seat. As a Democratic party aide aptly summed it Its almost too early to really assess what its going to look like just because there is so much uncertainty."
Massa surprised most political onlookers when he announced March 2 that he will step down after one term due to a re-occurrence of cancer. However he is also under investigation from the House ethics committee the committee confirmed Thursday allegedly due to sexual harassment allegations.
Democrats acknowledge their road to defending the seat got rougher with Massas withdrawal. Were going to work hard to hold on to this seat but recognize its a tough district. Right now were working with local Democrats to identify a strong candidate" said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Shripal Shah.
Among the top Democratic prospects is Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan who confirmed to CQ-Roll Call that he is exploring a bid. Ive been asked to consider it and I am considering it" said Horgan who has been mayor of the small town in Steuben County for the past 25 years. He confirmed that Massa himself was among those who have encourage him to run and said he hoped to come to a decision by Monday.
Other Democratic names that have been floated include Assemblywomen Barbara Lifton and Susan John and Assemblyman David Koon. Lifton confirmed she was mulling the race though she lives a few miles outside of the district in Ithaca.
Both Horgan and Lifton said they expected to make a decision by early next week.
Massa won the district in 2008 by a narrow 2-percent margin over GOP incumbent Rep. John R. Randy" Kuhl Jr. Before Kuhl Republican Amo Houghton had long held the seat. Even as district residents gave their vote to Massa in 2008 they preferred Republican John McCain over Barack Obama in the presidential election.
We all know its an uphill battle" said Lifton. Its not a Democratic district its a heavily Republican district with a lot of independent voters as well."
Still Lifton thinks a Democratic win is still possible. Congressman Massa proved its doable. Theres a lot to build on there" she said.
Republicans initially had high hopes for Reed a former attorney and one-term mayor. But his fundraising since joining the race in the fall has been underwhelming. While they continue to talk him up the party is also trying not to scare off other Republicans who have expressed interest since Massas announcement.
The most high-profile Republican currently taking a look at the race is Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks who was re-elected with 74 percent in 2007. Brooks who does not live in the district will announce a decision within the next several days" her spokesman Noah Lebowitz said.
Lebowitz sidestepped questions about Brooks previous support for Reeds candidacy saying only that she will make a decision that allows her to best serve the community."
Kuhl has also opened the door to a run issuing a statement Wednesday night expressing his condolences to Massa and adding I will address any political decisions in the future but right now it is important for Eric to get the treatment that he needs to recover."
In the nations capital Republicans are not particularly excited by the prospect of a Kuhl comeback. Kuhl would not be the right guy he is a proven underperformer" said one GOP source.
A primary is something Republicans hope to avoid and something Democrats think could improve their chances. If this somehow becomes a contested primary on the Republican side that obviously plays well for us if we can avoid that on our side" said the Democratic party aide.
Democrats also do not see Reed as a particularly strong candidate and believe they benefit if he maintains his hold on the nomination.
One factor that may deter a new round of candidates from entering is that the district which stretches along New Yorks Southern Tier and north into the suburbs of Rochester could be redistricted out of existence after the 2010 census.
Lifton said the redistricting question had not crossed her mind but Of course that would be an issue that youd have to think about." A congressional race would entail immense personal investment she noted and it would be very frustrating to get the district changed so that you were bounced out of your seat."
