By Jonathan Weisman -
The Wall Street Journal
A vigorous post-Labor Day Democratic offensive has failed to diminish the resurgent Republicans lead among likely voters leaving the GOP poised for major gains in congressional elections two weeks away according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
Among likely voters Republicans hold a 50 to 43 edge up from a three-percentage-point lead a month ago.
In the broader category of registered voters 46 favor a Democratic-controlled Congress compared with 44 who want Republican control. But in the 92 House districts considered most competitive the GOPs lead among registered voters is 14 points underscoring the Democrats challenge in maintaining their hold on the House. The poll of 1000 registered voters was taken Oct. 14-18.
Its hard to say Democrats are facing anything less than a category four hurricane said Peter Hart the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. And its unlikely the Democratic House will be left standing.
Mr. McInturff said the Republican lead among likely voters if it stood probably would yield a pickup of 52 or 53 House seats surpassing the net gain of 39 seats the GOP needs to claim control of the chamber.
The heightened energy among Republican-leaning voters has been a feature of public opinion for months with many voters anxious about the economy and unhappy with the Democratic-led Congress.
A good chunk of the Democrats base is disillusioned by what theyve done and Republicans believe the policies have taken us in the wrong direction said Scott Jennings a former Bush White House political aide now monitoring campaigns in Kentucky. Theyve spawned a great conservative awakening.
Some Democrats say the numbers may overstate the GOPs potential gains. Democratic leaders accept that the enthusiasm gap between the parties is real but are trying to counter it with tens of millions of dollars aimed at getting out the vote said Celinda Lake a Democratic pollster working on a number of House races.
Generic Republicans in these broad polls are more popular than individual Republicans Ms. Lake said citing policy positions of some GOP candidates such as modifying Social Security by adding private accounts which she said are unpopular.
Five percent of registered voters told the Journal they had already voted.
While the poll showed overarching trends that favor Republicans Democratic attacks on the GOP in recent weeks have solidified the partys hold on President Barack Obamas core supporters especially African Americans and young women while softening up the Republican advantage among senior citizens the poll found.
In the battleground Midwest Democrats now lead 47 to 42 among registered voters who were asked which party they want to control Congress a reversal of fortune since August.
Mr. Obama taped a radio advertisement released Tuesday by the Democratic National Committee aimed at bringing core Democratic supporters to the polls.
The ad will run largely on nationally syndicated talk shows aimed at black audiences and in the battleground states of Ohio Florida Missouri Illinois Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
We cant let this country fall backward because the rest of us didnt care to fight the president said in the ad ahead of a campaign swing through Oregon Washington state California Nevada and Minnesota that begins Wednesday.
Mr. Obama will hold a backyard town-hall style meeting for women only Thursday in Seattle.
Such efforts come as views of the president are hardening. In August 27 of respondents said their vote would be a signal of support for the president while 29 said their vote signaled opposition.
Now 35 say their vote is a signal of support for Mr. Obama while 34 say its a signal against him.
Those numbers show Mr. Obama is having a large impact on the campaign.
In all 69 of voters are saying their vote is a signal to the president compared with 59 who said so in 2006 about then-President George W. Bush the year Democrats took control of Congress.
The numbers of voters in 2006 who said they were motivated by feelings for or against Mr. Bush are dwarfed by how Obama impacts the political stage Mr. McInturff said.
Voters this year are evenly divided between showing their support for or opposition to the president while voters in 2006 were more likely to be signaling their opposition to Mr. Bushwith 37 saying they wanted to register opposition and 22 signaling support.
The Republican edge in intensity of support after falling from a 19-point lead in August to a 14-point lead in September is now at 20 percentage points.
After seven weeks of a powerful counteroffensive the dynamics havent changed Mr. McInturff said of Democratic efforts to diminish GOP momentum.
Tea-party supporters now make up 35 of the voters likely to turn out Nov. 2. Among that group Republicans lead 84 to 10. Just 56 of voters who supported Mr. Obama in 2008 say they are very interested in the midterm elections compared with 77 of those who voted for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.
For Democratic candidates the poll holds some glimmers of hope. Democratic campaigns in their home districts appear to be having an impact.
In August 46 of respondents said their member of Congresss position on national issues was most important to their vote compared with 41 who were swayed by their members performance in the districtan ominous number when 60 at the time believed the nation was on the wrong track. Now 52 said performance in the district is most important.
Moreover 52 said their representative is part of the solution to the problems facing the country while 35 said their representative is part of the problem.
The Democrats may be making a good pitch on performance in their districts Mr. Hart said.
There is some optimism about the economy as well: 37 of respondents say the economy will get better over the next 12 months up from 32 in September while the number saying the economy will get worse fell from 25 to 20.
