Alex Wong/Getty ImagesThe 2012 presidential race is on. Barack Obama is now formally running for re-election. Unopposed.
Of course thats only technically true; a number of Republicans are clearly running for the White House. But so far none has made the big official announcement. Given that Obamas job approval ratings are not so hot -- hes at 46.5 percent approval in the RealClearPolitics average of polls -- that strikes even some of the various Republican candidate camps as a little odd.
Its certainly unusual says an adviser to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty who has announced a presidential exploratory committee. Especially since I dont hear any Republicans arguing that Obama is unbeatable.
With a vulnerable president running for re-election and retreating from policies at the same time -- see Obamas Monday surrender on trying 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in civilian court -- why arent several GOP candidates already officially in the race?
One reason Republicans dont talk about much in public is that they are spooked by what happened to the last GOP presidential candidate. I think some of it is the fear of repeating the McCain experience in 08 and building a machine that cant be sustained says the Pawlenty adviser.
Back in 2006 and 2007 Sen. John McCain R-Ariz. laid the foundation for a big expensive well-funded presidential race. Still bearing the scars of his loss to George W. Bush in the 2000 GOP primaries McCain ran a big-spending operation until in the summer of 2007 he ran out of cash and the campaign nearly died. McCain recovered and eventually won the nomination but it was a very hard slog.
Its an experience todays GOP candidates dont want to repeat. Our view is that things got started too soon last time says a close adviser to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The only people who have been agitating for an early start now are the press and overcaffeinated political junkies and I guess we can now add President Obama to that list.
There are other reasons GOP candidates are holding back. For one when a candidate officially declares campaign finance restrictions kick in narrowing the sources of money that can be used for the campaign. For the moment as undeclared candidates they can draw on pre-presidential political action committees. And popular figures like Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee can also make paid speeches that double as pre-campaign appearances.
Another reason is that holding off gives pre-candidates the time to assemble and road-test campaign staff without the scrutiny that accompanies a declared campaign. Yet another reason is that the action in the GOP at the moment is in the House of Representatives and Republican candidates would have to fight with that for attention.
Holding off also has benefits for the Republican Party as a whole. If there were two or more declared GOP candidates right now they would probably be attacking each other as much as Obama. Theyre launching missiles at Obama says GOP strategist and Bush adviser Karl Rove. If they were official candidates there would be a greater tendency to snipe at each other.
So for the moment Obama has the official stage to himself. This will be my final campaign at least as a candidate the president said in an email to supporters Monday. So even though Im focused on the job you elected me to do and the race may not reach full speed for a year or more the work of laying the foundation for our campaign must start today.
The video Obama released to accompany his announcement featured a demographically balanced group of supporters saying why they believe Obama should win another term. But one person was conspicuously absent from the ad: Barack Obama. The president who has been on Americas TV screens almost daily for more than two years opted out of his own campaign announcement video.
As they busy themselves avoiding the mistakes of 2008 Republicans might want to think back to an earlier race. As the 1992 presidential campaign got under way incumbent George H.W. Bush had a sky-high approval rating. Big-name Democrats hesitated and then shied away from entering the race. Bill Clinton then the little-known governor of Arkansas dared challenge Bush and won the prize. Obama today is far weaker than Bush was in 91. Sooner or later a Republican will decide that you cant win if you dont get in.
Byron York The Examiners chief political correspondent can be contacted at byork@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears on Tuesday and Friday and his stories and blogposts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.
Alex Wong/Getty ImagesThe 2012 presidential race is on. Barack Obama is now formally running for re-election. Unopposed.
Of course thats only technically true; a number of Republicans are clearly running for the White House. But so far none has made the big official announcement. Given that Obamas job approval ratings are not so hot -- hes at 46.5 percent approval in the RealClearPolitics average of polls -- that strikes even some of the various Republican candidate camps as a little odd.
Its certainly unusual says an adviser to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty who has announced a presidential exploratory committee. Especially since I dont hear any Republicans arguing that Obama is unbeatable.
With a vulnerable president running for re-election and retreating from policies at the same time -- see Obamas Monday surrender on trying 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in civilian court -- why arent several GOP candidates already officially in the race?
One reason Republicans dont talk about much in public is that they are spooked by what happened to the last GOP presidential candidate. I think some of it is the fear of repeating the McCain experience in 08 and building a machine that cant be sustained says the Pawlenty adviser.
Back in 2006 and 2007 Sen. John McCain R-Ariz. laid the foundation for a big expensive well-funded presidential race. Still bearing the scars of his loss to George W. Bush in the 2000 GOP primaries McCain ran a big-spending operation until in the summer of 2007 he ran out of cash and the campaign nearly died. McCain recovered and eventually won the nomination but it was a very hard slog.
Its an experience todays GOP candidates dont want to repeat. Our view is that things got started too soon last time says a close adviser to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The only people who have been agitating for an early start now are the press and overcaffeinated political junkies and I guess we can now add President Obama to that list.
There are other reasons GOP candidates are holding back. For one when a candidate officially declares campaign finance restrictions kick in narrowing the sources of money that can be used for the campaign. For the moment as undeclared candidates they can draw on pre-presidential political action committees. And popular figures like Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee can also make paid speeches that double as pre-campaign appearances.
Another reason is that holding off gives pre-candidates the time to assemble and road-test campaign staff without the scrutiny that accompanies a declared campaign. Yet another reason is that the action in the GOP at the moment is in the House of Representatives and Republican candidates would have to fight with that for attention.
Holding off also has benefits for the Republican Party as a whole. If there were two or more declared GOP candidates right now they would probably be attacking each other as much as Obama. Theyre launching missiles at Obama says GOP strategist and Bush adviser Karl Rove. If they were official candidates there would be a greater tendency to snipe at each other.
So for the moment Obama has the official stage to himself. This will be my final campaign at least as a candidate the president said in an email to supporters Monday. So even though Im focused on the job you elected me to do and the race may not reach full speed for a year or more the work of laying the foundation for our campaign must start today.
The video Obama released to accompany his announcement featured a demographically balanced group of supporters saying why they believe Obama should win another term. But one person was conspicuously absent from the ad: Barack Obama. The president who has been on Americas TV screens almost daily for more than two years opted out of his own campaign announcement video.
As they busy themselves avoiding the mistakes of 2008 Republicans might want to think back to an earlier race. As the 1992 presidential campaign got under way incumbent George H.W. Bush had a sky-high approval rating. Big-name Democrats hesitated and then shied away from entering the race. Bill Clinton then the little-known governor of Arkansas dared challenge Bush and won the prize. Obama today is far weaker than Bush was in 91. Sooner or later a Republican will decide that you cant win if you dont get in.
Byron York The Examiners chief political correspondent can be contacted at byork@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears on Tuesday and Friday and his stories and blogposts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.
