By Greg Giroux CQ Staff
Published: 09-18-08
The enthusiasm that the nomination of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for vice president has sparked among many Republican voters may help the party limit its anticipated losses in the national campaign for Senate seats — that is in the opinion of John Ensign the Nevada lawmaker who heads the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.
Ensign chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) for the current election cycle told reporters at a press briefing Wednesday that Palin whom GOP presidential candidate John McCain named as his running mate three weeks ago has helped energize voters in the Republican Party’s base.
Ensign said Palin’s selection “excited our folks about getting out to vote” and also “had a lot of people take a second look at the Republican Party and the Republican message.”
He added “And I think it’s going to help not only at the top of the ticket but it’s going to help races up and down the ticket.”
Those down-ticket races include 35 for Senate seats — 23 of which Republicans currently hold and are defending to only 12 being defended by Democrats. Five of the Republican seats were left open by retiring members while all of the Democrats whose seats are up are seeking re-election.
Those are just some of the impediments facing Ensign and his fellow Republicans in a year in which the party — which suffered major losses in the 2006 elections that cost it control of Congress — is contending with continued strong public disapproval of President Bush and the hefty fundraising advantage built up by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).
The DSCC which helped orchestrate the Democrats’ six-seat Senate gain in 2006 is committing its resources to a long shot but not implausible effort to net nine more Republican seats this year. Their goal is 60 seats labeled a “filibuster proof” majority become a three-fifths vote is needed to cut off debate and send legislation to an up-or-down vote on the Senate floor.
But Ensign who throughout the year has declined to paint a rosy scenario for the Republicans’ Senate prospects sounded a more optimistic tone than usual at his press conference. “I used to say that four seats — it would be a pretty darn good night if we lost four seats. Well I feel much better than I used to feel. I think it’s possible for us to even hold where we are or only lose one or two seats. That’s possible” Ensign said.
Ensign said that he sensed the political environment was improving for Republicans beginning early in August in the weeks before McCain’s unexpected selection of Palin was announced. He believes Republicans made inroads with voters worried about high energy prices by taking to the House floor during the congressional recess and demanding that the Democratic-run Congress move to expand domestic oil drilling.
Ensign declined to make a specific prediction about the individual Senate elections in part because there are six contests for Republican-held seats in which recent polls according to Ensign indicate no clear favorites.
They are the races in Alaska where Sen. Ted Stevens — dealing with his pending indictment on federal charges of failing to report sizable gifts he allegedly received — is opposed by Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich; Colorado where Democratic Rep. Mark Udall faces Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer for the seat of retiring Republican Wayne Allard ; Minnesota where Sen. Norm Coleman faces Democrat Al Franken a well-known entertainer; New Hampshire where Sen. John E. Sununu is up against Democratic former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of their close 2002 race; North Carolina where Sen. Elizabeth Dole faces what appears an increasingly competitive challenge by Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan; and Oregon where Sen. Gordon Smith is opposed by state House Speaker Jeff Merkley in a race marked by heavily negative exchanges between the candidates.
How the Senate will look after the November elections “depends on those six seats which way they swing” Ensign said. “We could run the table they could run the table we could split them . . . It just depends on who runs the better races between now and Election Day who had the better message who gets their voters out to the polls all of those factors.”
The Alaska race in particular has received a lot of attention because Stevens the longest-serving Republican senator in history faces a federal trial that is scheduled to begin next week.
Matt Miller a spokesman for the DSCC said that it was “remarkable” that the Republicans are the defending party in all six contests Ensign identified as toss ups — and that incumbents are running in five of them.
Disputing Ensign’s claim that the Republicans have momentum in Senate races Miller said that Shaheen in New Hampshire and Mark Udall in Colorado “still have comfortable leads” and that Franken Hagan and Merkley have pulled even in the past month. If it were true that Palin has helped Republican candidates for the Senate Miller said “It certainly hasn’t shown up anywhere in the public polling yet.”
Ensign contended that Republicans are ahead in two races that are currently rated as competitive by CQ Politics: in Mississippi where appointed Sen. Roger Wicker is up against Democratic former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in a special election and in Maine where Sen. Susan Collins faces Democratic Rep. Tom Allen . Ensign though acknowledged that Republicans are trailing in two contests that Democrats appear increasingly likely to win in Virginia where Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner is dominating Republican former Gov. James S. Gilmore III for the seat of retiring five-term Republican John W. Warner and New Mexico where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall is leading Republican Rep. Steve Pearce for the seat left open by retiring six-term Republican Pete V. Domenici .
The only chance for Republicans to win a Democratic-held seat is in Louisiana but even in that conservative-leaning state Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu has been holding a steady lead in her bid for a third term over Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy.
Democrat Miller said of his party’s chances “We think we’re in great shape. We’re on offense around the country and on defense in one state. Our goal has been all along to pick up as many seats as we possibly can and we think we’re still on track to pick up a good handful of seats.”
The NRSC’s financial disadvantage means that at least some of the Republican candidates in competitive races will have to try to win largely on their own. Ensign’s committee is well behind the DSCC headed by New York Democrat Charles E. Schumer . As of the end of July the DSCC had $43 million left to spend compared to $25.4 million for the NRSC.
Ensign said though that the NRSC raised $5.1 million in August — compared to a little more than $3 million it raised in August 2006 — and had about $8 million more to spend on races than the NRSC had at a similar point last cycle. Official figures for last month will become available when each of the committees files its monthly report by the deadline this Saturday.
When one factors the money banked by Republican incumbents Ensign said “the disadvantage in fundraising is not nearly as great as what it appears.”
Ensign in late August caused a stir by remarking publicly about the trouble he has had inducing contributions from Republican senators who are permitted to transfer unlimited funds to the NRSC from their personal campaign committees. Ensign in July issued a public challenge to Republican senators to ante up to the NRSC then announced a month later that he had scaled back the party’s independent expenditures in individual Senate races because “it has become clear that my call has gone largely unanswered.”
Ensign said Wednesday that he’s seen an uptick in senators’ giving in recent weeks and had transferred $300000 himself from his own Senate campaign treasury last week bringing his total contribution for this election cycle to $500000. He said some other senators had recently given six-figure amounts to the NRSC. “In the next several weeks we expect others to be following suit with either that much or even larger amounts” Ensign said.
Miller said that the DSCC would release its August fundraising figures later this week. Senate Republicans he said “have a big gap to make up.”
