GOP cannot rely on Latino turnaround to produce future victories
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Heres a
simple way of looking at it: If the Hispanic vote had swung 20 points in the GOPs direction in every swing state
Obama would still have prevailed in the Electoral College with a 303-235 victory. While losses among Hispanics would cost Obama
his narrow win in Florida even a net-20 point GOP gain wouldnt swing Colorado or Nevada.
And if it did Obama would still have won through either Virginia or Ohio.
Although an evolution" on Immigration Reform and similar or related issues is probably prerequisite to any serious GOP effort to repair its support in the Hispanic community many commentators have correctly observed that moving to the left on immigration isnt a panacea. There are many reasons why Hispanics lean-Democratic and its an open question whether concessions on immigration reform could erase the memory of a half-decades worth of immigration fights.
For instance in Florida the state where the Latino vote figures most prominently into Republican fortunes the immigration" issue there might actually have a lesser degree of import to the latino community because in truth the heavy Puerto Ricans and Cuban communities are probably less connected to the immigration debate than Hispanics originating in Mexico or Central America.
And elsewhere the importance of the Hispanic vote is diminished by the Electoral College. While Hispanic voters were truly decisive in Florida Latinos are inefficiently
concentrated in non-competitive states like Texas and California.
In many battleground states the Hispanic vote plays a vanishingly small role. Obama won New Hampshire Wisconsin and Iowa by a larger margin than the Hispanic share of the electorate suggesting that Obama would have won if Romney had won every Hispanic voter in those states.
The exit polls suggest that Hispanics represented just 3 and 5 of the electorate in Virginia and Ohio only slightly more than Obamas 2 and 4 point margins of victory.
Even in the southwestern states where the Latino vote plays a critical role in the recent fortune of Democratic candidates Obamas strength among non-Hispanic voters in Colorado and Nevada gave Democrats breathing room to withstand considerable losses among Hispanic voters.
When the initial national exit polls showed an increase in Hispanic turnout and support for President Obama political commentators immediately resolved that Romneys deeply conservative immigration stance doomed him. The immigration" explanation or perhaps excuse quickly and easily attracted bi-partisan support.
The argument satisfied Democrats who had long anticipated a Latino surge to inaugurate a new era of Democratic dominance in national elections and the immigration excuse was also quite convenient for Republicans of all brands as well minus Lou Dobbs Pat Buchanan & Tom Tancredo. The establishment wing of the Republican Party supported comprehensive immigration reform all along and pinning the blame on immigration reform allowed true conservatives to avoid questioning deeply held position closer to the core of their beliefs.
Romneys performance among Latino voters was abysmal and it wasnt helped by his stance on immigration reform. But the immigration explanation for Romneys defeat isnt quite as good as it sounds.
The GOP also fell short of their benchmarks with rural Midwesterners voters in well-educated and affluent suburbs and African Americans. Hispanic voters were just one of many components of Obamas victory not an overriding factor.
The GOP will have miscalculated the breadth of their challenge if they adopt immigration reform as their one-plank plan for recapturing the White House in 2016.
Making matters worse for Republicans Democratic Senate candidates ran as well as or ahead of the president in white areas in just about every competitive state including:
- Florida
Ohio- Pennsylvania
- Virginia and
- Wisconsin
The performance of these candidates suggests that the GOPs issues extend beyond specific problems with Romney or the unique appeal of the president. And most likely its too early to tell whether Republicans were hurt more by abortion tax policy or something else but its clear that Romneys issue among rural white northerners wasnt just Bain Capital and his problem in affluent suburbs wasnt just his pledge to end funding to Planned Parenthood.
If Romneys historic performance among white voters manifested evenly across the electoral map then Republicans could justifiably consider their demographic challenge" as their primary obstacle to victory in 2016. But the Republicans shouldnt let their national standing among white voters obscure their real challenges with white voters outside of the South.
Certainly its not useful for Republican strategists to take solace in Obamas 39 showing among white voters if Obama still managed to do much better than Kerry or Gore in states like:
- Colorado
- Iowa
- Minnesota
- New Hampshire or
- Wisconsin
In the Electoral College system turning lean Republican states like Arkansas West Virginia Kentucky and Missouri into solid Republican states just doesnt matter.
The numbers illustrate the folly of relying too much on a Latino
turnaround to produce a Republican victory.
Obama leads the national popular vote by about 3 points but the exit polls indicate that Hispanics represented just 10 of the electorate. Finding 3 points worth of gains in 10 of the electorate is extraordinarily challenging: for Republicans to win the popular vote by means of Hispanics alone theyd need to gain a net-30 points among Latino voters reducing Obamas 44 point lead to just 14 points.
While theres nothing wrong with the GOP aiming high for 2016 its very difficult to imagine Democrats falling beneath 60 of the Hispanic vote in a competitive national race. Republicans will need to compliment improvements among Hispanics with plenty of gains among other demographic groups.
The Republicans have a Hispanic problem. Certainly Republicans need to improve with Latino voters and quickly. The Latino share of the electorate is poised to increase incrementally in every election for the foreseeable future raising the GOPs burden with Hispanics each year.
But they also have a problem with young voters African Americans affluent suburbs and the rural Midwest. A winning GOP coalition in 2016 will involve gains with each of these groups not just one.
And if Republicans assume that a quick flip flop on immigration reform will produce massive gains among Hispanics theyll probably be disappointed.
