The 38 elections for governors in the current election cycle will provide a big test of whether the presumed advantages of incumbency can survive troubled times.
Two states New Jersey and Virginia will choose new governors in 2009 and 36 other states will have gubernatorial elections in 2010.
Mapping the state of play is a challenge at this stage because a few incumbents who are eligible to run for re-election have not yet said with certainty that they will do so. They include Democrats David A. Paterson of New York and James E. Doyle of Wisconsin and Republicans Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and C.L. Butch" Otter of Idaho.
State financial difficulties are exacerbating the political problems facing New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine a Democrat and Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons a Republican whose stormy personal life has been headline fodder.
At the other end of the popularity spectrum Florida Gov. Charlie Crist a Republican could spark a competitive race by leaving his seat open but in his case it is because his strong job approval ratings have many supporters urging him to run in 2010 for the U.S. Senate seat left open by retiring Republican Mel Martinez .
The economic downturn adds a dramatically unpredictable element to a long slate of governors elections that will test another political factor: the degree of partisan polarization across the 50 states.
As convenient as it is to divide the nation neatly into Democratic blue" states and Republican red" states most states actually are some shade of purple.
The Democrats who have been on a national roll since the 2006 elections are defending a 28-22 advantage in governors seats and have slightly more seats 21 to the Republicans 17 in this election cycle. And of those 21 five are in states Arkansas Kansas Oklahoma Tennessee and Wyoming that normally are Republican strongholds and where voters favored GOP nominee John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by wide margins in the 2008 presidential contest.
Yet the list of states where Republicans are trying to hold onto governorships though shorter than the Democrats list is even more purple.
Of the 17 GOP seats up this round eight California Connecticut Florida Hawaii Minnesota Nevada Rhode Island and Vermont gave their electoral votes to Obama and in only Florida was the contest even remotely close.
That shows how voters are willing to set aside their usual party preferences for candidates of the other party especially if they project centrist profiles and have other characteristics that draw them support.
There are few better examples of this than in Wyoming one of the nations most consistent Republican Party strongholds.
There Democrat Dave Freudenthal is midway through his second term as governor. It is a seat that Republican campaign planners had penciled in as a likely pickup in 2010 because the states term-limit law would forbid Freudenthal from again seeking re-election.
But a different scenario has developed over the past few weeks the possibility of a lawsuit to overturn Freudenthals term limit.
In many other states such a gambit would likely raise cries of arrogance" and abuse of power." But few governors have enjoyed the kind of job approval ratings with percentages in the 70s and 80s over the long term that Freudenthal has. The conventional wisdom in Wyoming is that the incumbent would be a prohibitive favorite to win a third term should he persuade the state courts to let him run for it.
Wyoming aside there are 16 states with elections to replace term-limited governors and several will be heavily targeted for takeover by the opposition party.
Democratic strategists will almost surely be targeting open sets in states that typically have strong leanings to their party such as Hawaii where Republican Linda Lingle cannot run again; Rhode Island where Donald L. Carcieri is in the same boat; and California where movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger is winding down an often stormy two-term tenure.
Republicans will target three clearly open Democratic seats in states that voted McCain for president last year: Oklahoma where Brad Henry is the outgoing governor; Tennessee where Phil Bredesen is term-limited; and at least for now Kansas where Kathleen Sebelius cannot run for a third term.
Kansas would lose its open-seat status if Sebelius becomes Obamas secretary of Health and Human Services a possibility that has been floated in recent weeks. Should that happen Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson a Democrat would become the interim incumbent governor.
Other Democratic open seats in states that backed Obama but which have long histories of being competitive for both major parties almost certainly will be top-tier Republican targets.
These include economically beleaguered Michigan where Jennifer A. Granholm is reaching the end of her two-term run; Oregon where Theodore R. Kulongoski is term-limited; Pennsylvania where Edward G. Rendell is heading out; and Virginia the only state in which the governor cannot run for re-election after one term.
Virginia Republicans this year plan a major bid to take over from outgoing incumbent Tim Kaine (who also is the new chairman of the Democratic National Committee). Bob McDonnell who stepped down as state Attorney General to focus on his bid for governor is virtually locked in for the Republican nomination while the Democrats will have to wait until June to resolve a competitive three-way primary for their nomination.
This years other contest will likely be measured as a bellwether of both the Democrats recent upsurge in national politics and the ability of incumbents to weather the economic storm.
First-term Democrat Corzine enters his re-election campaign with tepid approval ratings in part because some of his proposals to deal with persistent state budget problems that pre-date the recession have been unpopular. Christopher Christie a former U.S. attorney who was heavily recruited by Republican officials has entered the GOP primary and one recent independent poll showed him with a small lead over Corzine.
But Corzine is bolstered by a long-running Democratic trend in a Northeastern state that has voted Democratic for president in every election since 1992; has favored the party in every U.S. Senate race since 1976; and has given the party two wins in a row for governor. And the incumbent made wealthy by his past stint as a top Wall Street executive has thrown tens of millions of dollars of his own money into his two previous successful statewide bids for U.S. Senate in 2000 and for governor in 2005.
The 38 elections for governors in the current election cycle will provide a big test of whether the presumed advantages of incumbency can survive troubled times.
Two states New Jersey and Virginia will choose new governors in 2009 and 36 other states will have gubernatorial elections in 2010.
Mapping the state of play is a challenge at this stage because a few incumbents who are eligible to run for re-election have not yet said with certainty that they will do so. They include Democrats David A. Paterson of New York and James E. Doyle of Wisconsin and Republicans Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and C.L. Butch" Otter of Idaho.
State financial difficulties are exacerbating the political problems facing New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine a Democrat and Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons a Republican whose stormy personal life has been headline fodder.
At the other end of the popularity spectrum Florida Gov. Charlie Crist a Republican could spark a competitive race by leaving his seat open but in his case it is because his strong job approval ratings have many supporters urging him to run in 2010 for the U.S. Senate seat left open by retiring Republican Mel Martinez .
The economic downturn adds a dramatically unpredictable element to a long slate of governors elections that will test another political factor: the degree of partisan polarization across the 50 states.
As convenient as it is to divide the nation neatly into Democratic blue" states and Republican red" states most states actually are some shade of purple.
The Democrats who have been on a national roll since the 2006 elections are defending a 28-22 advantage in governors seats and have slightly more seats 21 to the Republicans 17 in this election cycle. And of those 21 five are in states Arkansas Kansas Oklahoma Tennessee and Wyoming that normally are Republican strongholds and where voters favored GOP nominee John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by wide margins in the 2008 presidential contest.
Yet the list of states where Republicans are trying to hold onto governorships though shorter than the Democrats list is even more purple.
Of the 17 GOP seats up this round eight California Connecticut Florida Hawaii Minnesota Nevada Rhode Island and Vermont gave their electoral votes to Obama and in only Florida was the contest even remotely close.
That shows how voters are willing to set aside their usual party preferences for candidates of the other party especially if they project centrist profiles and have other characteristics that draw them support.
There are few better examples of this than in Wyoming one of the nations most consistent Republican Party strongholds.
There Democrat Dave Freudenthal is midway through his second term as governor. It is a seat that Republican campaign planners had penciled in as a likely pickup in 2010 because the states term-limit law would forbid Freudenthal from again seeking re-election.
But a different scenario has developed over the past few weeks the possibility of a lawsuit to overturn Freudenthals term limit.
In many other states such a gambit would likely raise cries of arrogance" and abuse of power." But few governors have enjoyed the kind of job approval ratings with percentages in the 70s and 80s over the long term that Freudenthal has. The conventional wisdom in Wyoming is that the incumbent would be a prohibitive favorite to win a third term should he persuade the state courts to let him run for it.
Wyoming aside there are 16 states with elections to replace term-limited governors and several will be heavily targeted for takeover by the opposition party.
Democratic strategists will almost surely be targeting open sets in states that typically have strong leanings to their party such as Hawaii where Republican Linda Lingle cannot run again; Rhode Island where Donald L. Carcieri is in the same boat; and California where movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger is winding down an often stormy two-term tenure.
Republicans will target three clearly open Democratic seats in states that voted McCain for president last year: Oklahoma where Brad Henry is the outgoing governor; Tennessee where Phil Bredesen is term-limited; and at least for now Kansas where Kathleen Sebelius cannot run for a third term.
Kansas would lose its open-seat status if Sebelius becomes Obamas secretary of Health and Human Services a possibility that has been floated in recent weeks. Should that happen Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson a Democrat would become the interim incumbent governor.
Other Democratic open seats in states that backed Obama but which have long histories of being competitive for both major parties almost certainly will be top-tier Republican targets.
These include economically beleaguered Michigan where Jennifer A. Granholm is reaching the end of her two-term run; Oregon where Theodore R. Kulongoski is term-limited; Pennsylvania where Edward G. Rendell is heading out; and Virginia the only state in which the governor cannot run for re-election after one term.
Virginia Republicans this year plan a major bid to take over from outgoing incumbent Tim Kaine (who also is the new chairman of the Democratic National Committee). Bob McDonnell who stepped down as state Attorney General to focus on his bid for governor is virtually locked in for the Republican nomination while the Democrats will have to wait until June to resolve a competitive three-way primary for their nomination.
This years other contest will likely be measured as a bellwether of both the Democrats recent upsurge in national politics and the ability of incumbents to weather the economic storm.
First-term Democrat Corzine enters his re-election campaign with tepid approval ratings in part because some of his proposals to deal with persistent state budget problems that pre-date the recession have been unpopular. Christopher Christie a former U.S. attorney who was heavily recruited by Republican officials has entered the GOP primary and one recent independent poll showed him with a small lead over Corzine.
But Corzine is bolstered by a long-running Democratic trend in a Northeastern state that has voted Democratic for president in every election since 1992; has favored the party in every U.S. Senate race since 1976; and has given the party two wins in a row for governor. And the incumbent made wealthy by his past stint as a top Wall Street executive has thrown tens of millions of dollars of his own money into his two previous successful statewide bids for U.S. Senate in 2000 and for governor in 2005.
