By Bill Burch
Republican Candidate for Texas House District 93
Published: 06-26-08
Recent polls have noted that about 30 percent of voters say that race will play a part in their decision in the November elections. As much as we would like to think otherwise I think that percentage might be conservative.
I feel that despite what has appeared in the press Republicans are actually poised for major gains.
That is provided they aggressively go after the Hispanic vote and stick to the Conservative principles of the Republican Parties Base.
Looking at the upcoming elections I think that the Republicans will hold onto their votes among African Americans but not their percentages. I feel that there will be an increase in turn out among this group from about fifty-seven percent (57) to about sixty-five percent (65).
Almost all of this increased turn-out will go to the Democrats thus dropping the Republican vote percentage of this segment from about twelve percent (12) to ten and one-half percent (10.5).
The Democrats will have an easy opportunity here because it is easier to get someone to go to the polls to vote for someone than against someone. This may result in a few losses by Republicans in swing areas with large numbers of African-American registered voters.
However the gains Republicans can make in other areas will significantly off-set this increase. To have a significant impact the Democrats will have to turn out 80 percent of the registered African-American voters which is not going to happen.
Every other major area is poised to give the Republicans significant gains at the polls if the Republican Party and its candidates make the effort to take advantage of the situation.
The Hispanic vote is positioned to add significantly to Republican gains. This is the greatest opportunity for Republicans to move the Hispanic vote to the Republican column in history.
Hispanics tend to like McCain and do not like Obama. But Republicans must understand that you do not put up Spanish language websites and mailings to get this vote.
You also don’t fall into the trap of offering citizenship to illegal aliens.
You also must remember that illegal aliens come from around the world so don’t fall into the trap set up by the Democrats. Hispanics have been fighting the illegal alien problem much longer than everyone else.
I believe that Republicans can maintain the current turnout at just under twenty-nine percent (28.7) and increase the Republican vote from forty-eight percent (48) to at lease fifty-two percent (52). Any further increase in turn-out will just add to the Republicans and further increase the percentage of the vote for Republicans from this segment.
However since these will largely be against the Democrats and Obama an increase in turn-out will be difficult.
Among the Asian-American population particularly the Vietnamese population you have a situation similar to that of the African-Americans in that there should be an increase in turn out and percentage but this time for the Republicans. This is due to the strong support among Vietnamese for McCain.
This segment of the voter populations is significantly smaller than that of the African-Americans but every little bit helps.
Also the percentage change will come not just from the increase in turn-out but from changes in Party vote. I foresee an increase in turn-out from less than twenty-eight percent (27.8) to least 30 percent and an increase in votes for Republicans from 53 percent to 65 percent.
Oddly I don’t see much change in the white vote turnout.
Currently we have a turn-out of just over sixty-three percent (63.4). This will probably increase to 65 percent but not much more.
Where there will be some change is with the percentage that votes Republican. This should go from 60 percent to at least 65 thanks to the Democrat ticket. This could rise even more if the Conservative base decides to turn-out as it did prior to 2004.
In respect to the African American vote and the Asian-American vote much of this increase will go to the top of the ballot thus not helping the down ballot races. This is because these voters are actually voting for someone.
Because the White and Hispanic voters are largely voting against someone this will help the down ballot races.
Despite the oratory skills of Obama and the draw among the young voters at least in Texas we have a banner year coming for Republicans if Republicans properly and aggressively address these opportunities.
Money early efforts and grass-roots efforts will make the difference.
