From The Rothenberg Political Report
One year ago Democratic state Sen. Ruben Kihuen declared himself the best candidate to represent a newly-drawn Hispanic-heavy congressional district in North Las Vegas. Thirteen days later he dropped out of the race.
Even though a record number of Latinos are serving in the 113th Congress Hispanic candidates are significantly underperforming in heavily Hispanic districts particularly compared to other minority groups.
Nationwide just 41 percent of congressional districts (24 of 58) with a Hispanic voting age population (VAP) of at least 30 percent are represented by a Hispanic member of Congress. In comparison 72 percent of districts (32 of 44) with a black VAP of at least 30 percent are represented by a black member.
Why cant Latinos get elected to Latino congressional districts?
In the case of Nevadas 1st District party politics was to blame.
Last January Kihuen was in town as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reids guest for President Barack Obamas State of the Union speech and Kihuen looked like the chosen candidate for Congress. Hispanics made up 37 percent of the voting age population in the district and they would have been an even higher percentage of the Democratic primary electorate.
But party leaders pressured Kihuen to drop out of the race and pave the way for Dina Titus an Anglo former congresswoman seeking a comeback bid. Democratic strategists believed a divisive primary could depress Hispanic turnout in the general election and hurt both the partys chances of winning the U.S. Senate seat and President Barack Obamas chances of winning Nevada and getting re-elected.
Nevada wasnt the only place last cycle where the party establishment backed a non-Hispanic candidate in a Hispanic district.
In Texas 33rd party leaders supported African-American state Rep. Marc Veasey over former state Rep. Domingo Garcia in a Dallas-area district that is 61 Hispanic and just 17 percent black. It helped that black voters outnumbered Latino voters in the primary runoff and general elections according to analysis by the Lone Star Project. In Texas 34th party leaders supported longtime Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) even though his newly-drawn district is 59 percent Hispanic.
Another challenge is turnout. As the race in Texas 33 showed the Hispanic percentage of a districts population can overstate the strength of the Latino electorate because Latinos dont vote in the same numbers as other minority groups. In some cases savvy Latino candidates dont even run because they know the opportunity isnt as good as it looks on paper.
Former Assemblyman Hector de la Torre was mentioned as a potential candidate in Californias 44th District which boasts a whopping 64 percent Hispanic VAP but he hardly gave it a thought. Its the voting numbers not the population" he explained early last year. Its actually not that ripe."
De la Torre believed the district might be more favorable to a Hispanic candidate later in the decade as the Latino population grows gets older and becomes more likely to vote. In the short-term he expected the black population to dominate (even though it is just 19 percent of the VAP) because the community was better organized. In the end Anglo Rep. Janice Hahn (D) won the district over African-American Rep. Laura Richardson (D) in large part because Hahn was a superior candidate who ran the better campaign.
De la Torre wasnt the only Hispanic candidate to pass on a newly-drawn Hispanic seat last cycle. Rep. Joe Baca (D) saw his congressional district divided during redistricting but instead of running in the competitive 31st District with a 44 percent Hispanic (where he would have faced tough general election competition) he opted for the more Democratic 35th District with a 65 percent Hispanic VAP. But he lost the race to Democrat Gloria Negrete McLeod. The two Democrats are likely to face off again in 2014.
In some districts sizable Hispanic populations are faced off against African-American populations and when that happens the black candidate almost always prevails.
Five out of six congressional districts that have both Hispanic and black populations of at least 30 percent each are represented by black Members including Floridas 24th and Texas 9th 18th and 30th districts. New Yorks 13th District is 53 Hispanic and 33 percent black but longtime African-American Rep. Charlie Rangel prevailed over state Sen. Adriano Espaillat 44 percent to 42 percent in the multi-candidate Democratic primary. The only district that bucks the trend is New Yorks 15th District where Rep. Jose Serrano (D) represents a population that is 37 black and 64 percent Hispanic.
But even when Hispanics dominate a district sometimes it isnt enough to secure a Latino victory. Nine districts with over 50 percent Latino VAP are represented by non-Latinos. Just two districts with a black VAP of at least 50 percent are represented by non-black Members.
For example Texas 16th District is now represented by Beto ORourke after he defeated longtime Rep. Silvestre Reyes in the Democratic primary last year even though the seat is 78 Hispanic.
Until Latino voters get more organized and start voting with more frequency simply citing the population figures of a district can lead to misleading analysis.
