By Karl Rove
A few trends to watch ahead of November
The 2010 midterm elections will be bad for Democrats. But the question is will their losses be worse than the post-World War II average of 24 House and four Senate seats lost by the party that holds the White House?
The answer isnt locked in yetand will depend on the confluence of many elements. Here are several that matter.
The most important metric is presidential job approval. President Obama is now at 51 in Gallup and 47 in Rasmussen. When Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994 Bill Clintons job approval was at 46. Every president has been lower by the midterm than at the start of that year. Mr. Obama was at 50 in early January. Add a persistently high jobless rate and it points to a worse-than-normal year for Congressional Democrats.
A second factor is the generic ballotwhich measures voters preference for voting for a Republican or a Democrat. At the end of the 2008 election Democrats led in the Gallup generic ballot by 12 points. Today the parties are tied at 45. At this point in 1994 the GOP was nearly five points behind. By Election Day it was five points ahead.
The GOP also enjoys a lead in the polls that now sample likely voters. In Rasmussen the GOP is ahead 44 to 37.
Intensity matters as well. The latest Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll reports two-thirds of Republicans are extremely or very interested in the midterms compared to only half of Democrats. Older voters are almost twice as likely as younger voters to be interested; and seniors now favor the GOP 50 to 41.
Look for the Obama White House to try raising Democratic intensity in the months ahead especially among blacks Latinos and liberals. The presidents harsh attacks on the Arizona immigration law are part of this strategy.
Another important metric for the fall is the turnout for primaries. Is it rising or falling compared to four years ago? The results so far are bad for Democrats. For example in Ohio Democratic participation was down 24 over the last midterm while GOP turnout was up 64.
Registration in the states that enroll by party have shown major-party and independent registration down from 2008 while third-party registrationsadmittedly a small part of the total electorateare up modestly according to George Mason University Prof. Michael McDonald. Its early; watch what happens if both parties push registration.
Congressional job approval is an anemic 28 in a recent Associated Press poll. Thirty-two percent of Americans told ABC/Washington Post pollsters in late April that theyd vote to re-elect their congressman while 57 said theyd look for someone elsethe highest number since 58 responded that way to an ABC/Washington Post poll in October 1994.
Democrats can take heart from their partys cash position. At the end of March the Democratic National Committee reported $15 million on hand while the RNC had $11 million down substantially from the $23 million it had when Mr. Obama took office.
The Democratic Congressional campaign had $26 million to House Republicans $10 million while the Senate GOP was keeping things close with $15 million to Senate Democrats $17 million.
Individual Republican candidates fare better in competitive Congressional races. According to the Center for Responsive Politics GOP Senate candidates have collectively raised $176.3 million outpacing Democrats $133 million. GOP House candidates have raised $240 million to Democrats $254 million.
But spending isnt everything. In 2006 the six GOP Senate incumbents who lost outspent their opponents by a 1.65-to-1 ratio and the 22 defeated GOP House incumbents outspent their opponents 1.53 to 1.
Democrats are also helped by fewer retirements. Seventeen House Democrats have retired so far compared to 20 House Republicans. However more Democratic retirements (11) are swing seats than are GOP departures (2).
The White House has many tools to change the narrative to its advantage. But its unlikely swing voters will abandon their concerns about ObamaCare spending and deficits. The public especially independents increasingly believes Mr. Obamas policies threaten Americas economic future.
Though this midterm election will likely turn on national concerns it will still come down to individual contests.
While a lot will play out over the next six months theres no question good Republican candidates running effective races will make this a memorable perhaps even epic election for the GOP.
Obama Democrats should beware.
Mr. Rove the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush is the author of Courage and Consequence (Threshold Editions 2010).
By Karl Rove
A few trends to watch ahead of November
The 2010 midterm elections will be bad for Democrats. But the question is will their losses be worse than the post-World War II average of 24 House and four Senate seats lost by the party that holds the White House?
The answer isnt locked in yetand will depend on the confluence of many elements. Here are several that matter.
The most important metric is presidential job approval. President Obama is now at 51 in Gallup and 47 in Rasmussen. When Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994 Bill Clintons job approval was at 46. Every president has been lower by the midterm than at the start of that year. Mr. Obama was at 50 in early January. Add a persistently high jobless rate and it points to a worse-than-normal year for Congressional Democrats.
A second factor is the generic ballotwhich measures voters preference for voting for a Republican or a Democrat. At the end of the 2008 election Democrats led in the Gallup generic ballot by 12 points. Today the parties are tied at 45. At this point in 1994 the GOP was nearly five points behind. By Election Day it was five points ahead.
The GOP also enjoys a lead in the polls that now sample likely voters. In Rasmussen the GOP is ahead 44 to 37.
Intensity matters as well. The latest Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll reports two-thirds of Republicans are extremely or very interested in the midterms compared to only half of Democrats. Older voters are almost twice as likely as younger voters to be interested; and seniors now favor the GOP 50 to 41.
Look for the Obama White House to try raising Democratic intensity in the months ahead especially among blacks Latinos and liberals. The presidents harsh attacks on the Arizona immigration law are part of this strategy.
Another important metric for the fall is the turnout for primaries. Is it rising or falling compared to four years ago? The results so far are bad for Democrats. For example in Ohio Democratic participation was down 24 over the last midterm while GOP turnout was up 64.
Registration in the states that enroll by party have shown major-party and independent registration down from 2008 while third-party registrationsadmittedly a small part of the total electorateare up modestly according to George Mason University Prof. Michael McDonald. Its early; watch what happens if both parties push registration.
Congressional job approval is an anemic 28 in a recent Associated Press poll. Thirty-two percent of Americans told ABC/Washington Post pollsters in late April that theyd vote to re-elect their congressman while 57 said theyd look for someone elsethe highest number since 58 responded that way to an ABC/Washington Post poll in October 1994.
Democrats can take heart from their partys cash position. At the end of March the Democratic National Committee reported $15 million on hand while the RNC had $11 million down substantially from the $23 million it had when Mr. Obama took office.
The Democratic Congressional campaign had $26 million to House Republicans $10 million while the Senate GOP was keeping things close with $15 million to Senate Democrats $17 million.
Individual Republican candidates fare better in competitive Congressional races. According to the Center for Responsive Politics GOP Senate candidates have collectively raised $176.3 million outpacing Democrats $133 million. GOP House candidates have raised $240 million to Democrats $254 million.
But spending isnt everything. In 2006 the six GOP Senate incumbents who lost outspent their opponents by a 1.65-to-1 ratio and the 22 defeated GOP House incumbents outspent their opponents 1.53 to 1.
Democrats are also helped by fewer retirements. Seventeen House Democrats have retired so far compared to 20 House Republicans. However more Democratic retirements (11) are swing seats than are GOP departures (2).
The White House has many tools to change the narrative to its advantage. But its unlikely swing voters will abandon their concerns about ObamaCare spending and deficits. The public especially independents increasingly believes Mr. Obamas policies threaten Americas economic future.
Though this midterm election will likely turn on national concerns it will still come down to individual contests.
While a lot will play out over the next six months theres no question good Republican candidates running effective races will make this a memorable perhaps even epic election for the GOP.
Obama Democrats should beware.
Mr. Rove the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush is the author of Courage and Consequence (Threshold Editions 2010).
