Its very hard to counter someone who is in every single news cycle.
HOUSTON Texas (Texas Insider Report) While on its face it may make sense to root for Trump to win the nomination because
he seems like the easiest to defeat variables are not our friend in a presidential campaign" said Ben LaBolt a former Obama campaign aide. You need to build a model that predicts turnout on both sides. And because Trump is such an unconventional politician its
hard to predict who will show up for him."
A Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump contest is no longer a passing fantasy but the most likely scenario and Democrats are bracing for a white-knuckle ride. Electoral college math still favors Democrats in a presidential election but the way forward is so unsettling that its hard for them to feel excited anymore.
Not long ago Democratic operatives stifled grins and tried to conceal their enthusiasm when asked about the prospect of running against Donald Trump in November. Could they possibly be so lucky?
But as Trump vanquishes his GOP challengers and climbs in the polls defying all political gravity the glee is turning to unease for many Democrats who worry that the general election could turn into a nasty and unpredictable house of horrors.
Yes Trump is incredibly divisive and has sky-high negative ratings. Yes he could inflame turnout among exactly the demographic blocs Democrats need to get to the polls in a general election. And yes theres a good chance his appeal is limited to a narrow slice
of Republican primary voters.
But Trump has exceeded all expectations already and is running a playbook no one has ever seen before. Anything seems possible.
Some in Hillary Clintons orbit see bad omens:
- The middle-aged African-American cab driver who drove one operative and said he voted for both Clintons but now likes Trump.
- The young would-be Bernie Sanders voter who likes that Trump cant be bought because he funds his own campaign.
- The labor-commissioned survey that finds a surprising number of blue-collar Democrats intrigued by Trump.
Trumps vague platform which has little connection to conservative orthodoxy could give him more flexibility to retool in a general election than conventional Republicans. Im very capable of changing to anything I want to change to" Trump told Foxs Greta Van Susteren earlier this month.
Democrats win the presidency today by identifying their voters and getting them to the polls in a hyper-partisan environment. The party has built a high performance and precisely calibrated machine to accomplish that goal. But like a sports car its not necessarily reliable in off-road terrain. Trumps unusual coalition which pulls from Democrats independents and all stripes of Republicans could test its ability to handle unexpected bumps.
If his populist message boosts turnout and margins with working class white voters high enough in the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest he could win even while alienating black and Latino voters.
You could see a situation where someone like Trump could carry Ohio Iowa Wisconsin maybe Pennsylvania. That starts to put a real dent in the Democratic coalition" said Ruy Teixeira a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress specializing in demographics in a recent interview with MSNBC.
While Trumps offensive language is undoubtedly a huge liability in a general election its also a dangerous weapon. Hes already accused Bill Clinton of being a sexual abuser an attack no other candidate is likely to level at the former president and one that some observers think contributed to Hillary Clintons drop in polls in the beginning of the year.
The attack on Bill Clinton seemed to unsettle the former secretary of states campaign. After spending months blasting Trump without hesitation Hillary Clinton suddenly had nothing to say about him. Thats not something well engage in were not going to try to respond. We will just let people run their campaigns any way they want" Clinton said at a forum in Iowa in January after Trump brought up her husbands indiscretions.
I havent even started with her" Trump warned during Thursday nights Republican debate.
People familiar with the Clinton campaigns thinking say theyre confident she can beat Trump but that the race would likely to be much uglier and potentially more damaging than against another nominee. People are insane" if they think this will be a walkover one pro-Clinton operative said.
Its very hard to counter someone who is in every single news cycle and who is always on offense in every single news cycle. Especially when they have no respect for boundaries that other candidates typically respect" said David Brock who is at the nexus of several pro-Clinton super PACs and who has been warning Democrats about Trump while traveling the country on a book tour.
The opening salvo against Trump is likely to come quickly and it will not be subtle. Democratic outside groups are ready to declare total war the moment Trump locks in his path the nomination and wont let up until November 8.
American Bridge one of the groups Brock founded began culling through all of Trumps 816 businesses this summer to collect legal records lawsuits news clippings and more.
Democrats also see an opportunity to hack Trumps aggression by engaging him in a constant succession of street fights.
And some Republicans who are not supporting Trump are just as unsure of his general election prospects.
But others are less willing to assume electoral doom for the same reason Democrats are unwilling to write off Trump: Hed run a campaign like no other.
One unaligned Republican strategist predicted
ads featuring Juanita Broaddrick. In the end while Id bet against Trump I think he stands at least a 30-40 percent chance of pulling it off because hed do things that are simply not on the table" the strategist said.
In a sign of things to come Trump supporter and former longtime political adviser Roger Stone recently promoted a GoFundMe page to make mortgage payments for Kathleen Willey another 1990s-era Bill Clinton accuser. Stone who once started
an anti-Hillary Clinton group with an unprintable misogynist acronym recently co-authored a book with a longtime Clinton conspiracy theorist who has accused the family of murder and drug smuggling.
Such a race would represent the death of subtlety in America. It would be a blunt force trauma race with a mind numbing series of attacks and counterattacks" said Republican consultant Curt Anderson. For both Clinton and Trump the path to victory would likely require a scorched-earth campaign targeting a large swath of voters who dislike them both.
Democrats have never misunderestimated Trump. He is the front-runner of the GOP because they love his racist misogynistic Islamaphobic message.
That and the GOP establishment is too pusillanimous to take him on. We are not" said Paul Begala the long-time Clinton strategist who is now involved with pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA.
Democrats are likely to reprise the line of attack used against Mitt Romney in 2012 to paint Trump as ruthless businessman who doesnt care about the little-guy voters he claims to champion. There is also an endless supply of outrageous quotes from Trump
bashing Latinos women Muslims African-Americans Democrats will resurface to keep him from moving to the center.
It could be harder to define Trump than Romney Democrats acknowledge thanks to the fact that most Americans have already formed opinions of him.
Hillary Clinton herself in a fundraising email Thursday night told supporters: Ive said for a long time that Trump isnt a joke and now hes looking more and more likely to be the Republican nominee."
