By James Freeman
November cannot come soon enough for Republicans. Plus, a surge in borrowers avoiding student-loan repayment.
A GOP SENATE MAJORITY?
A survey of U.S. Senate races shows the political damage Democrats have suffered from the roll-out of ObamaCare. A number of swing-state incumbents who were polling in the low- to mid-50s before the launch of Healthcare.gov are now polling in the low- to mid-40s. If the November elections were held today, Republicans would likely capture the six seats they need to take control of the upper chamber.
The problem for Republicans of course is that voters won’t go to the polls for more than six months. And in the meantime the President enjoys a significant ability to change the subject to issues that favor Democrats.
But for now, the outlook is bleak for the party in power. Barring catastrophic mistakes by Republicans, the GOP will pick up the open Democratic seats in South Dakota and West Virginia. Two more likely Republican pick-ups are the open seat in Montana and the Arkansas seat currently occupied by Sen. Mark Pryor. Running against perhaps the strongest GOP challenger in Rep. Tom Cotton, Mr. Pryor trails in most polls.
That means Republicans need to hold Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky seat, which they probably will, and then flip just two more Democratic seats from among five toss-up races (Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan and North Carolina) and two competitive ones in Iowa and New Hampshire. In five of those seven races, there is a Democratic incumbent who supported ObamaCare, appeared headed for re-election early last fall and is now struggling to approach 50% support in public polls, the traditional danger signal for incumbents.
And changing the subject from ObamaCare will not be easy. Today and tomorrow, the issues-advocacy group Americans for Prosperity is rolling out new TV ads focused on ObamaCare in Colorado, Louisiana, New Hampshire and Michigan. Expect similar activity from independent organizations all summer. The political price for supporting the President’s signature achievement could be nearly as high as it was in 2010.
