By Byron York
Recently a representative from the Hillary Clinton camp delivered a message to Martin OMalley the former Maryland governor preparing to challenge Clinton for the 2016 Democratic nomination.
I have some good news and some bad news the messenger said.
Whats the good news? asked OMalley.
The good news is were taking you seriously the messenger answered. And the bad news is ... were taking you seriously.
The undertone of threat was unmistakable but anyone who takes on Clintonworld has to expect that. And indeed pro-OMalley Democrats -- there are some -- are not at all surprised by the tone. They are the most petty vengeful people out there says one Democrat of the Clinton organization.
They hold a grudge for decades. I dont think he (OMalley) expected them to welcome him with a fruit basket.
And Clintonworld has reason to be concerned. Yes Hillarys lead is huge and yes she is at this point the presumptive Democratic nominee. But there are already emerging signs that the coronation might not go as planned.
Its early yet but OMalleys recent declaration -- The presidency of the United States is not some crown to be passed between two families -- is probably the best line of the campaign so far. If you took a poll to gauge public opinion on that turn of phrase approval would likely be very very high.
It was a very effective line says another Democrat. And its the first time hes taken a swing -- hes always deferred in the past.
No more. OMalley is acting like a real candidate now traveling hiring staff and fashioning a message. Democratic insiders point to three factors that could help OMalley turn a non-race into a race.
1) Even when she has the nomination race to herself Clinton rarely rises above 60 percent with Democrats. (In the RealClearPolitics average of polls she is currently just under 60 percent.)
There is one-third to 40 percent of the Democratic electorate that wants a primary race notes the second Democrat. Even in a field where she doesnt have an opponent Hillary doesnt get above 65 percent. The job of OMalley or any other Clinton challenger is to connect with that 35 percent to 40 percent of Democrats who are hoping for a Clinton opponent.
2) The history of Democratic primary battles is that an insurgent almost always puts a scare into the sure-thing front-runner. You can go back decades says the Democrat. There has always been a moment in the Democratic primary in which the overwhelming conventional odds-on establishment favorite was vulnerable to an outsider challenge.
While that is truer of some years than others there is a pretty long list of insurgents -- Howard Dean Bill Bradley Jerry Brown and others -- who created some nervous moments for the leading candidate. In 2008 of course the outsider Barack Obama did a lot more than that. And the odds-on favorite he toppled then just happens to be the odds-on favorite now.
3) The press wants a primary. Republicans can complain that the media is in the tank for Hillary but there seems little doubt that many voices in the press would like to see an actual contest for the Democratic nomination. The Boston Globe for example recently begged Sen. Elizabeth Warren to run.
Democrats would be making a big mistake if they let Hillary Clinton coast to the presidential nomination without real opposition the paper editorialized. The fact that some key voices in the press wont take Warrens no for an answer is an indication the Fourth Estate would like a fight. And if Warren stays out theyll talk up any other credible challenger.
OMalley is more than credible. He has the credentials of a two-term governor and the ability to position himself to the progressive left of Clinton. On Wall Street LGBT issues immigration trade -- on those and more OMalley can credibly cast himself as more progressive than Hillary.
Hillary and Bill Clinton have been thick as thieves with Wall Street says a pro-OMalley Democrat. She was very close with the financial industry and she depends on them for money.
Years after the economic meltdown many on the left are still angry that none of the big Wall Street players was punished and it hurts Clinton to be associated with those players.
This is a really really really big issue with progressives -- that there was no accountability for Wall Street says the Democrat.
The planets are aligning for a real Democratic race. That doesnt mean Clinton will lose (although anything can happen) but it does mean there will be no smooth easy path to the crown.
Byron York chief political correspondent for The Washington Examiner
