Texas Insider Report: WASHINTON D.C In the final pre-election Battleground Poll Republicans hold a 14-point edge among independents and lead on the overall generic ballot 47 to 42. If the trend among independent voters to boot Democrats from office holds true Republicans are on the verge of broad wins next week for one big reason.
Expressing deep dissatisfaction with President Obamas policies and performance independents have increasingly sided with conservatives in the belief that government:
- Grew too large
- Grew too fast under Obama and that it
- Can no longer be trusted
The swing among independents rivals the emergence of the spirited Tea Party movement as one of the most important changes in American politics over the past 20 months according to a new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll.
Many other polls have confirmed this trend over that period even though it has been vastly overshadowed by coverage of more provocative characters and themes on the right. (See:
Dem excuse: Outside groups killed us)
The poll found these independents are merging with Republican voters who remain decidedly more enthusiastic about voting next Tuesday to threaten both the House and Senate Democratic governing majorities.
The Republican lead expands to 12 points in the generic ballot among those extremely likely" to vote.
Independents helped lift Democrats to power in 2006 and pushed Obama into office in 2008. But in last years Virginia and New Jersey
gubernatorial races these voters registered grave concerns and did it again by breaking for Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in his upset victory in January.
Instead of heeding the warnings Democrats proceeded with the $1 trillion health care law and banked on an economic recovery that hasnt come.
- On health care: 62 of independents hold an unfavorable view of the new law (compared to 52 percent overall). Only six percent of independents view the legislation very favorably.
- On the economy: 66 of independents say the recovery legislation is not working (compared to 57 overall). The percentage saying the stimulus" is not working spiked 12 points since Labor Day.
- On the question of governance overall: 69 of independents say they have less faith in government now than they did just before Obama was elected. (See: Biggest campaign spending day yet)
Theres been decisive momentum for Republicans in the last two months as these swing voters paid closer attention to the chatter about upcoming elections.
During the week of Labor Day when the polls generic ballot question split 43-43 just 29 of independents said they backed or leaned toward the GOP candidate for Congress.
That rose to 38 during the third week of September. Now its 44.
A host of other polls have also captured this trend: Gallup reports 65 of independent voters in September said the economys getting worse" the highest rate all year. (See:
Secrecy flip-flop fueled Crossroads)
At the same time Republicans would be wise to not read too much into their success with independents.
Many of the independents who fell out of love with Obama have not fallen in love with Republicans: only 30 of independents think Republicans have
offered more specific solutions than Democrats this year (compared to 39 in the full survey). (See:
Outside groups five favorite Dems)
Concerned" best describes the electorates sense about the countrys trajectory. Its the word 34 percent of respondents picked to describe their mood. While 26 percent say theyre hopeful a third said theyre frustrated or angry.
Independents are more likely than partisans to say theyre voting against a candidate than for someone:
- Nearly 40 percent said theyre voting either more against a candidate or to send a message."
- Republicans have a 22 point advantage (46-24) among voters who view both parties unfavorably.
Voters overall rate congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans about evenly in their ability to handle the most salient issues. The shift toward the GOP comes when those surveyed are asked to compare the Republicans approach with President Obamas.
On the question of who most shares your values congressional Republicans narrowly edge out congressional Democrats 46-44. Among independents its 40-37.
Among independents the Republican edge becomes 41-34 over Obama. Another 11 percent of independents say neither side shares their values; 12 percent say theyre unsure.
Jobs" unquestionably have been the top concern of voters and the most consistent mantra from candidates this year. Republicans tie congressional Democrats 45-45 nationally on who can best create them.
Among independents congressional Democrats actually have the 44-38 advantage on whose best to handle the issue.
The presidents approval rating is 38 percent among independents. When you compare Obama to congressional Republicans they suddenly favor
Republicans 50-26 on job creation.
This is the third in a series of bipartisan polls conducted for POLITICO and The George Washington University as part of the nearly 20-year-old Battleground survey. The poll which surveyed 1000 likely voters nationally between October 17 and October 20 was conducted and analyzed by two widely respected pollsters
Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners and
Republican Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent. The sample of independents was smaller so the margin of error is higher.
Other notable results
from the national poll include:
- • Key constituencies and regions that helped Democrats come into power continue turning against them. Whites favor the Republicans 56-33. Suburban voters tilt Republican 51-39 up from 44 percent in early September. Republicans lead 50-41 in the Northeast and 48-42 in the Midwest. Republicans now have a 15-point edge among non-college educated men.• There are signs of an enthusiasm gap among some traditionally Democratic constituencies. Only 52 percent of all 18-29 year olds and 62 percent of unmarried women say theyre extremely likely to vote. A high percentage of African-American voters support Democratic candidates but they are much less likely to be very interested in the election. Forty-seven percent of them say theyre extremely likely" to vote compared to 73 percent of white voters. (See: Obamas America now mainly blue)• Republicans have succeeded at making this a referendum on the party in power: 54 percent say theyre casting a ballot either against or for Barack Obama and congressional Democrats. If the 2012 election was held today hed lose 48-42 against an unnamed Republican candidate.
• Obamas personal approval rating is 65 percent which means that many who disapprove of his policies still like him. That will give him room wiggle room after the midterms to reestablish rapport with the voters hes lost.
• Women favor Democrats over Republicans 46-43 while men favor Republicans 52-37. The gender gap gets somewhat offset by Republican women who are far more enthusiastic in their backing of GOP candidates than last month. Theyre now significantly more
likely to say theyll turn out than Democratic women. (See: A Senate scenario: election overtime)
• The tea party is viewed positively by 41 percent; 38 percent eye the movement unfavorably.
• Despite the White Houses efforts to frame House Minority Leader John Boehner 54 percent still say theyve never heard of him. Another 13 percent dont know enough to offer an opinion. His favorable rating is just 18 percent; his unfavorable 15 percent. Contrast that to Karl Rove who only 29 percent say theyve never heard of. He has a 23 percent favorable rating
