by Richard E. Cohen & Peter Bell National Journal
Congressional Insiders as in Democratic and Republican congressmen & senators themselves discuss the chances this year for comprehensive health care reform legislation and global warming cap-and-trade legislation.
Q: How likely is Congress to enact comprehensive health care reform legislation this year?
Democrats (39 votes)
Very likely 62
Somewhat likely 33
Somewhat unlikely 5
Very unlikely 0
Very likely
The clear consensus that the current system is broken is the driving force that assures some type of comprehensive reform will happen this year.
Congress has accomplished everything the president set out to accomplish so far. Why wouldnt we want to reform health care?
It is the No. 1 domestic issue and Congress has no choice; 71 percent of the American people want a public option.
This is a huge problem for businesses and families. The public overwhelmingly supports reform.
Never underestimate Nancy Pelosis capacity to move bills with big impacts through the House. The Senate may notice that two-thirds of the American public and the president want action.
The health care bill better include a public option or it will lose my vote.
Everything I hear and see indicates that it will happen. Besides other big items like immigration reform may not happen. Therefore it is important to put a big score on the board.
We have to. Now is the moment.
So that no one goes bankrupt because they get sick? So people can be healthy? So that costs are low choice is clear and keeping your doctor is OK? Yes we can.
Somewhat likely
Even though the rhetoric from Republicans resembles the 90s the political climate and the desire for change are much different.
Somewhat unlikely
I am never an optimist for such large and complex matters.
The only two things that are very likely around here are High humidity is on the way and The Texas judge is gonna get impeached.
Q: How likely is Congress to enact comprehensive health care reform legislation this year?
Republicans (38 votes)
Very likely 13
Somewhat likely 39
Somewhat unlikely 39
Very unlikely 8
Very likely
This is a must-win for Obama and congressional Democrats. If they fail they lose their political legitimacy. Whatever it takes they wont fail.
Obama has invested too much of his own capital not to accomplish something of note.
Some reform will get passed but it will have to be much less aggressive than the current proposal (i.e. no massive tax increases) in order to get the necessary votes.
Reconciliation in the Senate makes partisan reform a sure bet.
The closer we get to the election cycle the less likely the administration will be able to justify the costs of massive and permanent expansions. Theyll make it happen now.
Somewhat likely
Somewhat likely. After the initial shock of the Congressional Budget Office score of over a trillion dollars wears off theyll really start pushing in earnest.
Unless Democrats continue to anesthetize K Street and the American people into rolling over for a government takeover of health care.
It would be a Pyrrhic victory with results that will not meet the unreal promises.
It may be less than what is on the table now.
There is more consensus on this than cap-and-trade.
Somewhat unlikely
They will call whatever they pass comprehensive reform but it will fall far short of what this administration set out to accomplish.
If the Democrats give up on a public option then somewhat likely. If they dont it goes down to very unlikely. Well split the difference and say somewhat unlikely.
Very unlikely
Between the price tag and a sagging economy families outside the Beltway simply arent ready for the government bureaucratic plan Democrats are wedded to.
They will pass something called reform but it will not be very comprehensive.
Q: How likely is Congress to enact cap-and-trade legislation this year to curb global warming?
Democrats (39 votes)
Very likely 33 percent
Somewhat likely 54 percent
Somewhat unlikely 5 percent
Very unlikely 8 percent
Very likely
It was touch-and-go there for a few weeks but the fact that Nancy Pelosi and Henry Waxman are able to work out compromises with all parts of the Democratic Caucus is very encouraging. This is Pelosis signature issue. And shes not going to let it go down without a fight.
Pelosi helped those who disagreed to agree. The bill will pass the House. And the Senate may notice that the public and the president want this change.
The Waxman-Markey bill will pass this week. And it will spark a clean-energy revolution that will put America in a position to lead the world in developing the new energy technologies that will power the world in the 21st century.
The House will do it this week because the speaker wont let us go home until its passed.
Somewhat likely
It would be hard to vote against a sweeping climate-change measure that would cost the equivalent of a postage stamp a day.
But real carbon curbs by Congress would include an increase in clean-energy standards to 30 percent by 2020 a restoration of authority to the EPA to regulate carbon emissions from power plants under the Clean Air Act and a reduction in incentives to polluting industries.
Getting both houses to agree is going to be very difficult. There is a big difference of opinion.
On second thought maybe I am too optimistic.
Q: How likely is Congress to enact cap-and-trade legislation this year to curb global warming?
Republicans (38 votes)
Very likely 5 percent
Somewhat likely 21 percent
Somewhat unlikely 45 percent
Very unlikely 29 percent
Very likely
The House will have this passed by the weekend. The real test will be the Senate but its hard to imagine the Democrats letting this fall apart when they are so close.
Somewhat likely
There are a lot of Democrats who know their states will be negatively impacted in a big way. And leadership needs to finesse those votes mostly from the Midwest.
All the focus on health care allowed the president and congressional Democrats to move an energy tax closer to the goal line. In the end it probably gets stripped down to useless.
It would be a Pyrrhic victory with results that will not meet the unreal promises.
Somewhat unlikely
Adults in the Senate say no but not before vulnerable House Democrats cast a vote for their own retirement.
Cost to consumers is a real problem.
To curb global warming? Right. By less than a few hundredths of a degree Fahrenheit by 2050. Way to play into the propaganda.
They should call it crap-and-fade.
Very unlikely
Pelosis religious fervor on the environment will force vulnerable Southern and Midwest Democrats to vote for a huge tax bill that the Senate wont move.
Best they can hope for is a renewable portfolio standard to take to international negotiations in Copenhagen.
Even the bills supporters refuse to talk about climate change anymore. Now its about green jobs and the economy. Maybe if we wait until next year it can be the Wall Street reform bill too.
Pelosi is leading her troops into the Valley of Death. They are fighting and dying for a bill the Senate will never pass.
National Journal Insiders
Democratic Congressional Insiders: Sens. Sherrod Brown Ben Cardin Thomas Carper Christopher Dodd Edward Kennedy Frank Lautenberg Barbara Mikulski Mark Pryor Jon Tester; Reps. Jason Altmire Robert Andrews Michael Arcuri Tammy Baldwin Melissa Bean Xavier Becerra Howard Berman Marion Berry Rick Boucher Lois Capps Michael Capuano Dennis Cardoza Chris Carney James Clyburn Jim Cooper Joseph Crowley Elijah Cummings Artur Davis Diana DeGette Rosa DeLauro Eliot Engel Anna Eshoo Sam Farr Chaka Fattah Bob Filner Phil Hare Alcee Hastings Rush Holt Mike Honda Steve Israel Frank Kratovil Jim Langevin John Lewis Zoe Lofgren Nita Lowey Carolyn Maloney Ed Markey Jim McDermott Jim McGovern Kendrick Meek Jim Moran David Price Silvestre Reyes Linda Sanchez Jan Schakowsky Mark Schauer Jose Serrano Adam Smith John Spratt Pete Stark John Tanner Ellen Tauscher Bennie Thompson Debbie Wasserman Schultz Henry Waxman and Peter Welch.
GOP Congressional Insiders: Sens. Lamar Alexander Jim Bunning John Cornyn Jim DeMint John Ensign Lindsey Graham Kay Bailey Hutchison Johnny Isakson Richard Lugar Mel Martinez Lisa Murkowski Jeff Sessions Olympia Snowe John Thune David Vitter; Reps. Michele Bachmann Brian Bilbray Marsha Blackburn Roy Blunt John Boehner Charles Boustany Kevin Brady John Campbell Eric Cantor John Carter Michael Castle Tom Cole Mike Conaway David Dreier Jeff Flake Scott Garrett Bob Goodlatte Kay Granger Doc Hastings Pete Hoekstra Bob Inglis Darrell Issa Peter King Jack Kingston Mark Kirk John Kline Christopher Lee Dan Lungren Kenny Marchant Kevin McCarthy Patrick McHenry John Mica Candice Miller Sue Myrick Devin Nunes Mike Pence Tom Price Adam Putnam Dave Reichert Cathy McMorris Rodgers Mike Rogers of Michigan Peter Roskam Paul Ryan Pete Sessions John Shadegg Adrian Smith Mark Souder Pat Tiberi Fred Upton and Joe Wilson.
